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☕ Love him or hate him, what Musk does next will print an entirely new generation of millionaires, imho.

Jul 14, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The markets have split in early going as traders make the very same bet that I’ve been encouraging investors to adopt for a while now…

…Tariffs will come and go, but profit potential is a permanent fixture.

Yes, headlines are loud.

Yes, volatility can sting and be scary.

But also – YES, this too shall pass.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Four reasons you’d be foolish to get trapped on the sidelines right now

People often ask me how I can "keep buying" despite headlines that have a lot of people hunkered down in fear.

Simple.

I play to win while others are playing not to lose.

To a point I made in yesterday’s short, the S&P 500 has returned 94% over the past 5 years while the Nasdaq has returned 95% according to Google Finance.

That catches a lot of people by surprise – the 94% and 95% part - but none more so than those who went to the sidelines in fear a few years back and those who are heading to the proverbial locker-room now.

Stocks like those we talk about regularly have done considerably better which is why I prefer ‘em and recommend the choices I do to the One Bar Ahead® Family.

Repeat after me.

There is still plenty of upside.

In fact, and as I have noted several times, 7,000 by year end might actually be conservative if we can keep the wildcards at bay. (Watch)

There are 4 big reasons sitting on the sidelines could be a monster mistake:

the Fed hasn't yet bazooka'd
tons of institutional money still on the wrong side
tariff narrative continues to change the calculus
$7T on the sidelines looking for a home

Btw, I am no longer a lone voice on 7,000. Both JPM and Goldman analysts have put similar numbers on the map recently.

Seems I might be on to something. 😀

Keith’s Investing Tip: People constantly try to outguess the unguessable because they don’t understand the difference between probabilities (what’s likely to happen) and possibilities (what might happen). The former is investable, but the latter is pure speculation.

2 – JPM could set the tone

Earnings season is back and not a moment too soon.

I don’t know about you, but I get tired of the constant lurching from headline to headline between earnings seasons, so I’m always glad to have real numbers to chew on as each new earnings season dawns.

One of my faves is on deck tomorrow, JPM.

JPM has beaten revenue 16 of the last 17 quarters if memory serves. I’m expecting revenue of $43-$44B and EPS of $4.50+ - so I am slightly above consensus expectations.

It's a simple story... apex predator with a $4T balance sheet, incredible competitive position, the deepest capability set of any bank, the best CEO bar none, the most expansive geographical footprint, and most importantly, unmatched economy of scale among U.S. banks.

Target $327.31 or ~14% higher within the next 12 months.

3 – Don’t let Musk’s “no” fool ya’

Unka Elon says “no” to folding xAI into Tesla — but don’t let that fool you. He’s putting it to a shareholder vote which is likely coming on whether Tesla should invest in xAI instead. (Read)

That’s a massive distinction, not to mention a nuance most investors and Wall Street analysts will miss.

Musk already merged xAI with X earlier this year at an $80B valuation. SpaceX is reportedly also throwing $2B into the pot.

Here’s the challenge.

People are using the term “merging” to reflect what’s happening but that’s sloppy language and lazy, bench-level thinking.

Musk is weaving ‘em together very deliberately because he understands the much, much bigger and more valuable picture like we do.

The anti-monopoly crowd is probably going to go bananas – which is why I think Musk has said “no” in an attempt to keep ‘em at bay – but that’s a lost cause.

Musk knows exactly where the world is going and what it’ll take to get there.

Buying Tesla now could be one of those moves that becomes the stuff of legend in 20 years.

I hope I own enough shares… but, honestly, probably don’t. 🤦‍

3-5X in a few years.

Btw, history suggests we’re on the cusp of what I call the 6th Wave and that there are 10-15 companies with “Tesla-like” potential in various stages of maturity. If you’re comfortable with that concept, fabulous because most investors haven’t got a clue. And if you’d like some help finding what I think are the “right” names, I’ll be here.

And if you still don’t think this is a big deal, that’s okay, too.

Just understand that Tesla has returned 1,697.76% over the past decade versus the S&P 500 which has returned 198.14% over the same time frame. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested back then into $17,977.60 today.

Either way.

Love him or hate him, what Musk does next will likely print an entirely new generation of millionaires, imho.

4 – Google’s latest “Me, too” is a sign Pichai needs to go

Google’s spending $2.4B to poach Windsurf’s CEO and AI coders. (Read)

Not an acquisition.

Not exclusivity.

Just a high-stakes talent grab and a tech license.

The startup was in talks with OpenAI for a $3B acquisition.

That fizzled.

El Zucko went on a talent poaching bonanza.

Google’s left with table scraps.

MyPOV is that this is the digital equivalent of a big blinking, Vegas-size, neon sign that says: “We’re behind.”

Google’s DeepMind, of course, sees this differently and says what’s happening is all about “agentic coding” and beefing up Gemini. But let’s be honest — if you [Google] had real AI leadership in AI, you wouldn’t need to rent it. 🤔

Will I touch $GOOG here?

Nah.

In fact, I’ve avoided it for years and told investors around the world to do the same especially over the past 12 months.

The company is swinging from one AI headline to the next without showing it can dominate the space. Nvidia leads. Microsoft moves. Tesla boldly steps forward. Google… licenses and hires. 🤦‍

Remember: Catch-up is not a strategy.

Pichai needs to go, imho, but that’s just me.

The numbers are pretty damning.

Google has returned –2.24% over the past 12 months while the S&P 500 has turned in 11.43% over the same time frame, a trend I see growing worse not better.

I’m really tempted to short it or buy putskies – a bet the stock declines – but Wall Street would make mincemeat outta that trade because the “Street” has every vested interest in defending it.

Hmmm.

5 – BNPL will wreck millions

BNPL – buy now, pay later – has been all the rage in recent years.

Users blithely stepped up to big purchases as companies like Affirm, Afterpay, and Klarna created new payment terms that have been embraced the world over by merchants like Amazon, Sephora and Walmart.

I have always said the devil is in the details.

Now, more than a few consumers look set to find out the hard way.

FICO announced last month that it would begin incorporating BNPL data into individual credit scoring models starting this fall. (Read)

Why is this important?

New data from Lending Tree shows that 4 in 10 BNPL users – 40% - have late payments with the big services, up from 34% last year. Worse, the data also shows that 25% of BNPL users use that for everyday purchases like groceries.

This is a you-know-what-storm of epic proportions in the making.

Folks who can’t buy a $20 pizza with cash or pay for the latest burrito bonanza delivery with all the trimmings are gladly doing so and turning ‘em into $50 pizzas and $75 burritos.

The really sad part of this is that rising default rates push everyone’s borrowing costs higher, even those who pay their bills. And yes, it’s also another reason to invest in banks, credit card companies and data providers, too.

Keith’s Investing Tip: True financial security – aka real, sustainable wealth – comes from having disciplined money management. Habits… like oh, I dunno, paying cash for what you can afford… are an important part of that. Just sayin’.