☕ Making this mistake could cost you 92% – so don’t!

Howdy 👋 

The markets are like watching a high-speed ping-pong game at the moment. 

Even I find myself shaking my head lately. 🤦‍ 

At the end of the day what matters is that the markets are still working AND the business case for owning many of the world’s best companies is getting stronger. 

I don’t make that comment lightly. 

The world is a complicated place at the moment, but my point is that it’s been complicated before. And yet, here we are. 

Peace in the Middle East will take a while and, when that finally arrives, the markets will likely rip higher. Always remember, bottoming is a process not a light switch. 

Preparing now is perhaps the smartest – and dare I say it – potentially most profitable move you can make. 

If you are not investing when the chips are down, you cannot possibly hope to be ahead when the chips are up. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Making this mistake could cost you 50% or more – so don’t! 

Many investors think they’re being smart by running for the hills, but what they don’t realize is just how costly a mistake that can be. 

My good friend, Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady, asked me to chime in on his show, The Cow Guy Close, yesterday. (Watch) 

What’s interesting about this is how many investors still don’t believe that no matter how many times I share the thinking. 

Reminds me of that old saying about taking a horse to water (when you can’t make it drink). 

For example, Fidelity found that a hypothetical $10,000 invested in the S&P 500 and left alone from 1988 through 2024 would have grown to just over $500,000.  

Miss only the five best days, and the ending value falls by 37%.  

No big deal people think… I can live without the $185,000 I’d give up because I’ve still made $315,000. 

Fine. 

Miss the 50 best days – just 0.4% of the total number of days in that time frame – and that same portfolio drops to just under $40,000. In other words, your fear just cost you ~92% and ~$460,000. (Read) 

I don’t know of too many investors who can afford to give up that kind of life-changing wealth, but if you can, my hat’s off to you. 💯 Most cannot. 

If you’re nervous, I get it – loads of people are.  

You are not alone. 

That doesn’t change the facts. 

The markets have a very defined upward bias over time which is why you ALWAYS want to play to that, invest accordingly in the world’s best companies, and leave your money alone as long as humanly possible. 

And if you need a little help? 

You’re not alone in this department either. There are thousands of people just like you who tell me that being a member of the One Bar Ahead® Family has changed their lives. You can learn more here if that’s of interest. 

2 – Peace in the Middle East? 

U.S. President Trump said yesterday that the U.S. and Iran are “in negotiations right now” and multiple outlets reported that Washington had sent Tehran a 15-point ceasefire proposal via Pakistan.  

Predictably, Iran has publicly pushed back on the idea of direct talks. 

The bigger point for investors – and the one I want you to think about – is that even in the middle of conflict, markets begin to reprice the moment a path to de-escalation appears.  

That is the bigger investing lesson here.  

As JPMorgan’s CEO Jamie Dimon said recently, this conflict could still lay groundwork for more durable peace in the region. 

I agree. 

That’s why I will still be holding on to key defense stocks because – peace or not – many of those companies will be re-supplying for years to come. 

Pick carefully if you’re thinking similarly, though. 

Not all def-tech is the same. 

3 – Arm wants into the big leagues 

Arm is releasing its first in-house chip. (Read) 

I’ve been wondering when this would happen. 

Here’s the trick. 

Arm has historically licensed design and instruction sets to other companies using a royalty-based business model, but this move put ‘em in competition with its own customers including Nvidia, Google, Amazon and Microsoft. 

The other thing that catches my attention is that Arm’s internal forecasts are so far above other estimates that they’re in nosebleed territory. 

Is it time to buy? 

I could easily make the case that the answer is yes but seems to me there may be a hiccup or two as margins adjust – and rally or not today – I don’t think that’s dawned on folks yet. 

Trade Idea: Sell Cash Secured Puts on a dip or use LowBall Orders to gain a toehold when the next AI fear story breaks… and it will. Let everybody else chase the Tooth Fairy. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people chase the next best thing which, predictably, doesn’t often end well. I’d rather get ahead of the next sure thing – meaning structural changes that will generate profit potential for decades to come. 

4 – Merck: Desperate times or simply interesting timing? 

Merck will acquire Terns Pharmaceuticals, a clinical-stage biopharmaceutical company, for roughly $6.7 billion. (Read) 

Interesting timing and perhaps desperate measures.  

Nearly half of Merck’s revenue comes from its well-known immunotherapy drug Keytruda but the patent protection is due to expire in 2028. 

This is the third multibillion-dollar acquisition for Merck in the last year which tells me somebody knows something based on how quickly the company appears to be trying to expand its pipeline. 

Will Merck survive and should you buy shares? 

Two very different questions.  

To answer the first one, yes – probably – because there’s a lot to like.  

But and even so, I’m not buying.  

I’d rather be investing in names driving the next generation of targeted therapies, AI-accelerated discovery and gene-editing breakthroughs. Not perfect, perhaps… but it works for me.  

Hopefully you’ve got a “buy” list, too. 

If not and you’d like to see what’s on mine, you know where to find me. 

5 – Private credit’s train wreck 

I have long urged investors to stay away from so-called “private credit” even though Wall Street went to great lengths to convince people that they’re the financial equivalent of sliced bread and a great choice for investors in search of higher returns and additional diversification. 

Hopefully you haven’t fallen for the nonsense. 

Private credit funds are starting to restrict withdrawals. (Read) 

Like that’s a surprise. 

Cheap money has helped cover all sorts of financial chicanery for years. 

Weak borrowers could refinance, lenders could extend terms, and losses could be delayed long enough for everybody to pretend the risks were smaller than they really were.  

Now that rates are higher and investors want their money back, frankly, that illusion is getting harder to maintain.  

Many see this as a replay of events leading into the 2008 credit crisis. 

I don’t, but I do see it as a very real stress test.  

MyPOV is get your money out if you invested and IF you can. 

Then, buy the best, ignore the rest.® 

Meaning real companies with real businesses, real margins and real growth that do not depend on predatory lending disguised as business development. 

You do not want to be left holding the bag here. Or, at least, I don’t want to see you left holding the bag if I can help it. 

Bottom Line 

Lessons in life (and the markets) will be repeated until they are learned!  

Mistakes are tuition. 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀