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☕️ Meta’s big bet 🕶️

Sep 16, 2025

Howdy! 👋

And we’re off.

The S&P 500 began green but has gone red as I type in the early going as traders bet that the Fed will cut rates as Team Powell’s latest confab starts.

Or so goes the story.

What’s really happening is that those very same traders are clearing the books and making ready for the next opportunity.

VIX options expire at open tomorrow which means that today is the last day to trade those options (and all the stuff that fancy pants traders have used to arbitrage related risk) so it’s logical to see the S&P on the move this morning.

The real question, of course, isn’t whether the Fed cuts or not… but whether the rally sticks when options roll off.

Why?

That’s when we’ll see who is buying for keeps and who is gaming the tape – meaning playing the short-term noise.

Which reminds me of something the great Warren Buffett quipped… and I am paraphrasing… you find out who’s swimming naked when the tide goes out.

Believe it or not, individual investors like you and me have the edge here.

People think you make your money as the bulls run, but the real profits get made when the bears come out to play.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Survey says… 🤦‍♂️

CNBC is reporting that 82% of respondents to the September CNBC Fed Survey think that US President Donald Trump’s pressure on the Fed will lead to higher inflation and weaker growth according to a survey it took recently. (Read)

Haven’t we put this to bed already… a few dozen times.

Surveys like this are not only a waste of screen space but your brain power, too.

The really important data point imho would be to ask the 29 respondents (who are apparently a mix of “top” money managers, investment strategists and professional economists) how they’ve done since the April lows.

My guess is most of ‘em are still offsides.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest (including surveys like this one that tend to be wonderfully contrarian indicators).

2 – How to invest in the “new” TikTok

Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent says he expects a deal on TikTok before November reciprocal tariffs bite. (Read)

That’s not the real story.

China wouldn’t make a deal unless there was something else at work.

Let me explain.

US President Donald Trump was more than willing to let TikTok go dark – meaning shut down – and that put the fear of nothingness in Beijing where information is a premium.

We know that TikTok very likely feeds Beijing’s intelligence apparatus, which begs the question.

Why would this be a good thing?

For the simple reason that our spy apparatus probably chases every last data point deep into Beijing’s hive so to speak. It’s also a great opportunity to run “false flag operations” – an intelligence term meaning orchestrate information for gain, usually with the intent to disguise the actual sources.

What’s an investor to do?

Honestly, there’s not a lot you can do except roll your eyes… and continue to invest in the companies that’ll increasingly drive the boat here. That includes ByteDance, SoftBank and KKR & Co if memory serves. And of course, Oracle which sources say will keep its TikTok platform deal in all this. (Read)

3 – Meta's big bet

The Metaverse was a colossal flop, no two ways about it.

Now Team Zuck is betting you’ll want to wear new Hypernova glasses that are being billed as the most advanced smart glasses yet. (Read)

CEO Mark Zuckerberg says that the glasses will be the company’s main conduit into superintelligence – a hypothetical concept where AI surpasses human intelligence in every possible way into human lives.

I’d rather wear any Apple product any day but that’s just me.

Meta is still playing catch up and, imho, throwing stuff like this against the wall to remain relevant. Meanwhile, choices like those I prefer including many names we talk about regularly are charging ahead and making gobs of money.

Sadly, I don’t believe Wall Street gets it and will continue to defend the stock which, in turn, creates mounting risk for those who own it. 🤔

4 – Buy now or never?

Fears are mounting that anything resembling a good deal at your local car dealer will vanish. (Read)

That certainly matches up with what I’m seeing anecdotally.

Inventory is tight and getting tighter - buyers are hungry.

I think this is gonna jam the likes of Ford and other conventional car makers but, strangely, inject new life into Tesla and Chinese competitors like BYD.

You can buy a car… or a lifestyle.

Cheap gas or not, new features or not, buyers simply don’t want the hassle.

The average piston-clanker engine has 400-600 parts, all of which require service at some point. A Tesla “motor” has three.. the rotor, the stator and the battery pack.

Lower costs mean higher margins and stickier customers.

Tesla has returned 81.23% over the past year and 178% over the past 5 years. The S&P 500 has returned 17.56% and 94.47% respectively.

You can do the math just like I can.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy the disruptors, not the disrupted. Sure, they’ll be volatile but it’s hard to argue with that kind of profit potential when you get it right.

Btw, there are 10-15 “Teslas” out there right now in various stages of maturity and your job as an investor is to find ‘em, latch on and ride to the buzzer. If you’re good, awesome. If you’d like some help and additional perspective, I’d like to toss my hat in the ring. People tell me that One Bar Ahead® has helped ‘em become far better, far more consistent investors.

5 – What I learned from Robert Redford

Movie icon Robert Redford has passed away at 89. (Read)

I’ll miss him.

I met Mr. Redford several times in both Park City and Sundance, Utah.

Each time, he was as gracious as could be.

I particularly remember a conversation about how he began the Sundance Film Festival and why what he called a “sense of place” matters in today’s world.

Redford explained, “that storytelling – meaning moviemaking – begins with a sense of place, and community grows around that.” Generosity was key, he noted because, “it feels good to be generous.”

“How else” are you going to create stories that matter than by sharing knowledge that matters, he asked rhetorically as we walked along one fall afternoon.

I suppose some of that rubbed off over the years without my realizing it.

You see, I created One Bar Ahead® and the 5 with Fitz for many of the same reasons.

My goal is to help investors stand on their own two feet instead of depending on Wall Street for table scraps. And I help them do that by sharing vision, knowledge and perspective much the same way Redford did with filmmaking.

All told, I probably only spent a combined total of 120 minutes with Mr. Redford over the years, but I will carry what I learned with me the rest of my life.

Thank you, Sir!