☕️ Most aspiring AI investors haven’t got a clue the game is on
Aug 13, 2025Howdy! 👋
Tuesday gave investors plenty to smile about and the follow-through looks set to continue this morning as I type with all three of the major indices in the green.
Obviously and to be fair, you don’t count your chickens before they hatch any more than you count profits before you capture ‘em.
Still, I’ll take it.
There’s still plenty of fuel in the tank.
- The Fed hasn’t started cutting yet but probably will one of these days whenever JPow and his band of money marauders get around to it.
- Big money managers are still underexposed and fretting about valuations.
- It’s FOMO season.
- And yes… there are trillions — with a “T” — still sitting on the sidelines looking for a home.
- This isn’t rocket science.
Many folks will chase yesterday’s hot stocks but that is almost always a mistake. What you really want to do is a) position for tomorrow’s inevitabilities and b) get your money there first.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Ford’s game of catch-up is already outta gas
I am an unabashed Tesla bull and have been for years, so it made sense that the super savvy Gerri Willis asked me yesterday if Ford’s latest EV ambitions worry me vis-à-vis Tesla. (Watch)
“Not even remotely,” I said.
- Tesla has the Model 3, Y, S, X, Cybertruck and Semi… and that’s not including robots, data and more that link ‘em all. Ford’s strategy is catch up and their lineup remains very limited.
- Tesla could make 10X per vehicle what Ford makes in 10 vehicles for the next ten years thanks to vertical integration. Ford is losing billions on EVs which will make scaling very financially challenging.
- Tesla has the supercharger network, over-the-air updating, which Ford can’t match, and tremendous brand loyalty despite what the media would have many believe.
- Tesla has the world’s biggest real-time driving database giving it a massive AI, autonomy and efficiency lead while Ford literally has no comparable data set.
- Tesla controls all its own IP while Ford cobbles together partners.
- Tesla is all in while Ford is balancing legacy businesses.
Keith’s Investing Tip: The financial graveyard is filled with investors and the companies they own to the bitter end who failed to understand where the world is going and who remain trapped by baggage from the past. Don’t be one of ‘em!
Btw, if you’re interested in the entire interview including my take on why the markets can continue to rally, Palantir to $200 and which defense stocks make the most sense ahead of Putin and Trump’s Alaska confab, click here.
2 – Is this the ultimate anti-antitrust move?
This caught my eye yesterday.
Perplexity’s unsolicited $34.5B offer for Google’s Chrome browser lit up the headlines. (Read)
On paper, it’s hilarious.
The company is valued at $18 billion itself, which raises a teensy-tiny question: how exactly do you finance a deal nearly twice your own market cap?
Hmmm. 🤔
The numbers alone are eyebrow-raising:
- Chrome commands ~65% of the global browser market
- 3.5B+ users worldwide
- Analysts say it would likely take north of $100B for Google to even come to the table (which I doubt but just for the sake of argument we’ll play along)
That means Perplexity’s bid isn’t just low — it’s laughably low if advertising and search are really “worth” what people think.
I’m not sure that’s true like it once was and that’s exactly the point.
I think Perplexity’s bid ought to be half again as small… just $15B and that Google would be really foolish not to take it.
I don’t believe Perplexity expects to buy Chrome at $34.5B.
What they’re doing is far more strategic.
Google’s defense includes arguing that Chrome can’t survive outside Alphabet — pointing to Firefox’s slow fade, Opera’s struggles, and the graveyard of failed standalone browsers.
Perplexity just blew that up.
By making a public, “funded” offer — even one they may not be able to close — they’ve handed the DOJ a gift-wrapped counterargument: Chrome could survive outside Google because there’s actual buyer interest.
It forces the court to rethink Google’s sob story about Chrome’s fragility. If there’s a willing, credible buyer, the argument that Chrome would wither on its own loses steam fast.
This is why I’m calling it the ultimate anti–antitrust move.
If the court forces Google to divest Chrome, Google’s search moat shrinks, its data firehose narrows, and the company loses its default gateway to the internet for billions of users.
Perplexity wins either way.
If they somehow got Chrome, it’s a rocket booster for their AI-driven search ambitions. If they don’t, and Chrome ends up in someone else’s hands, Google is weakened and Perplexity still benefits from the shake-up.
Tech disruption isn’t always about the deal you close.
Sometimes it’s about the one you make public just to move the chessboard.
Unfortunately, Perplexity is still private doggonit but Google is public and, I submit at this point, increasingly like a moth in search of one of those alluring blue porch lights on a hot summer night.
3 – Most aspiring AI investors haven’t got a clue the game is on
Tencent just reminded the markets what happens when a company thinks ahead and moves fast. The Chinese tech giant’s earnings were strong, but what really caught my eye was that spending surged 119% YoY as it poured billions into AI upgrades for advertising, gaming, and its Weixin super-app. (Read)
You’ve heard me mention super-apps before.
I expect super-apps to dominate global data within a decade.
Don’t think this is a big deal?
Think again.
Americans and Europeans tend to pick phones by prioritizing brands, price/deals and app ecosystems.
In China, consumers pick phones based on super-app compatibility, speed and deep local ecosystem integration as well as national pride.
Both Tencent’s WeChat and Alibaba’s Alipay services are deeply embedded in everyday living so how well a phone runs ‘em is critical. Further, China-specific ROM – meaning custom Android builds – removes Google services and replaces ‘em with domestic alternatives.
Not many people know this but China already controls ~14.5% of the world’s AI computing power — a critical resource in the race to train and deploy the most advanced models.
Hmmm.
MyPOV: There is no doubt in my mind that there’s only one western CEO who gets both the threat and the opportunity… Unka Elon who, as I have repeatedly suggested for years, is undoubtedly working on a super-app of his own and it’s hiding in plain sight.
You don’t really seriously think Twitter, now X, and Grok isn’t headed that way.
Do you? 🤔
4 - The sound of the 90s is finally going silent
AOL just announced it’ll pull the plug on its dial-up internet service on September 30th — ending a 30-year run of screeching modems, “You’ve got mail,” and watching web pages load one pixel at a time. (Read)
Use what’s happening as a reminder to dump fading legacy plays and keep capital in innovators riding the next wave — think AI infrastructure, quantum networking, and edge computing among other things.
That’s where tomorrow’s “AOLs” are being born.
Your portfolio will thank you.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Tech moves on, and so should your portfolio. The stuff you loved isn’t always the stuff you should own. Google and Amazon come to mind, for example… but that’s just me. 🤷🏻️
5 – Every chip tells a story and now, it’s reporting to Washington
Reuters is reporting that US spooks are sliding hidden location trackers into Nvidia, AMD and other high-end chips to ensure they don’t accidentally fall into China’s hands. (Read)
Like that’s a surprise.
Not.
AI is for all the marbles which is why if you own the choke points – ie the chips themselves – you own the vault so to speak.
You know what to do and which companies to buy and, if not, perhaps you’d find One Bar Ahead® helpful. I’ll be here if you need me.
Bottom Line
Pessimists have a hard time making money.
Be an optimist.
Life is a lot more pleasant, and profits become a lot more consistent.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
You got this – I promise!
Keith 😀