☕ My two cents on three popular stocks in the news

Howdy 👋 

Well, what d’ya know…  

Oil is back above $100, stocks are in the red, and US Treasury yields are up to 4.40% as risk mounts once again. 

Bring it! 

The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. 

Focus on what you can control – like buying great stocks, controlling risk, using the right tactics and more – rather than worrying about what you can’t. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – My exact words yesterday 

I hated to say it ahead of yesterday’s opening bell when everybody was in rally mode, but I did anyway. 

“Iran is very rarely one stop, do what it says, says what it does, so I think we’ve got another hiccup, [that’s why] I want to be prepared with both stability and growth.” (Watch) 

The put options I recommended last week to the One Bar Ahead Family returned 65.09% and 34.48% through last Friday’s close but went negative on yesterday’s rally. I have a hunch they’ll be back in the green shortly. 

Frankly, I hope I’m wrong. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Too many investors count their chickens before they hatch. Patience and discipline remain the two most undervalued investments of all right now. 

2 – Chevron’s CEO: Markets are sleepwalking into an oil shock 

CEO Mike Wirth says that the markets are underpricing supply shocks from the Strait of Hormuz closure. (Read) 

I agree. 

Which is why I have made no bones about Chevron. 

The stock has returned ~29.95% over the past 12 months versus the S&P 500, which has turned in ~14.10% by comparison. A 2.12x performance advantage. 

The OBA Family, of course, has known about it a lot longer than that and had the opportunity to do considerably better. But that’s neither here nor there. 

Not all stocks are the same, especially when it comes to dinosaur juice. 

Hopefully you’ve had a similar opportunity with your own money. 

If not, I respectfully submit that now’s a great time to ask yourself why not. 

Do you: 

• Know how to find truly great stocks and which tactics to use for maximum results or are you lurching from “hot stock” to hot stock with no plan while convincing yourself that you’re a serious investor? 
• Understand why low beta and high true shareholder yield can give you a sustainable edge over time? 
• Identify value investing’s blind spot ahead of time or are you trapped when the markets turn on you? 

If you’d like a little help (and some answers to these and other questions critical to your investing success), I’ll be here. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Far too many investors get caught chasing dreams (because they buy less than spectacular stocks based on hype or clickbait) instead of living the dream (because they’ve invested in the world’s best companies).  

3 – FedEx thinks it can out-Amazon… Amazon 🤦‍♂️ 

FedEx just teamed up with OneRail to roll out same-day delivery… apparently aiming to “compete” with Amazon and Walmart. (Read) 

Cute. 

Here’s the problem nobody wants to say out loud. 

Amazon didn’t build  logistics; it IS logistics. 

FedEx? 

They’re a vendor in someone else’s ecosystem trying to cosplay as the ecosystem itself. 

That’s like showing up to a Formula 1 race on a really fast bicycle. 

Amazon has 200 million users and end-to-end control that optimizes every inch of the proverbial chain. 

FedEx has… a partnership and a press release. 🤦‍ 

Investors who think this is a level playing field are likely to get a very expensive lesson. 

Trade Idea: Long AMZN and short or avoid FDX on any rally. Putskies could work nicely too. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest® 

4 – Sion picks drones over delusion 

This next one doesn’t come as much of a surprise, honestly. 

Sion Power, an EV battery startup, is pivoting away from EVs and into defense. (Read)  

The company wants to commercialize high-energy lithium-metal battery cells for drones and other def-tech after focusing on EVs for more than a decade. 

I can’t say I’m surprised and I hope you’re not either considering how many times we’ve talked about the EV rush and why it’s likely to be more bust than boom. 

Other companies have pivoted to stationary storage, aerospace and defense applications just to name a few. Examples include QuantumScape, Solid Power and SES AI right off the top of my head. 

Could Sion make the jump? 

Yes, if CEO Pamela Fletcher knows what she’s doing (and I think she does, btw). 

Meanwhile, I’d rather get ahead of that shift. 

Drones are of particular interest. 

They’re another “gold rush” and a clickbait artist’s dream right now. So, you’ve got to pick carefully. 

That’s why I’d rather invest in a drone maker that already has a head start on both power and lucrative contracts, not speculative sales. I think shares are about to take off – pun absolutely intended. 😉 

5 – Time to buy Oracle? 

Oracle wants to make a strategic pivot into AI by reworking its Fusion cloud suite – the software large enterprises use for financial management, factory planning, procurement, and more.  

Instead of employees navigating multiple systems, Oracle thinks it can get users to pose a business question and let AI handle the rest. (Read) 

The system will pull data not only from Oracle’s applications, but from connected third-party software as well to execute tasks like data entry, invoice processing, research, and even recommendation generation.  

According to VP Steve Miranda, tasks like typing invoices and purchase orders are low-value and will be fully taken over by AI, leaving humans with the higher-level decision-making processes such as supplier negotiation, or supply chain risk management.  

No word on what happens when there’s a mistake and you need to talk with a human customer service rep – but I digress. 

While everyone’s debating whether AI is overhyped or when the bubble will bust, it’s continuing to replace real processes inside companies. And it’s already driving real bottom-line impact — with large customers reporting hundreds of millions in annual savings, while Oracle’s AI-fueled cloud backlog has exploded to $553 billion. 

Time to buy Oracle? 

BoA just reinstated a “buy” rating and slapped a new $200 target on the stock. (Read) 

I’m not so sure. 

The stock has fallen by roughly 51% over the past six months and seems to be basing at around $150. That’s why I’d rather see investors use LEAPs (than buy the stock itself) … to keep both risk and costs lower. 

Or – my preference – simply buy a better choice with a considerably better upside and a fraction of the doubt that seems to cloud Oracle’s every move these days. 

You? 

Bottom Line 

Buy the future, survive the present.  

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀