☕️ NASA went to space, but I’d rather have SpaceX

Howdy! 👋 

Futures are down hard in the wee hours as I type following President Donald Trump's remarks on Iran. And I expect the selloff to gain steam into the open – probably by the time you read this. 

But not for reasons you think.  

No doubt the prospect of a longer war really stinks, but the real tell – a poker expression meaning a giveaway – is the US 10YR note which has jumped to 4.372% as I type.  

Why? 

More expensive money makes all that money Wall Street’s merry marauders borrow more expensive, so they're dumping shares and re-risking to avoid the institutional equivalent of a big fat margin call.  

More than a few people are gonna get smoked again today after yielding to fear over the past few months and FOMO – fear of missing out – over the past several sessions.  

Do NOT let it faze you – and I sure as heck hope you stuck to the plan. 

This is not our first rodeo and as I have noted many times, the best companies continue to pull ahead.  

If you are not investing when the chips are down, you cannot possibly hope to be ahead when they're up. 

Oh… and I thought I’d try a slightly new format today… tell me if you like it… or not! 😀 

Here's my playbook. 

1 – Trump's remarks rewrote everything (again) 

Markets had two good days on hopes the Iran war was winding down. Then the President's national address reminded everyone that hope isn't an investment strategy. 

I can only shake my head. 

Brent crude jumped 6.6% to near $108 a barrel, stocks and bonds… well… 🤦‍️ and the Strait of Hormuz — global oil’s jugular vein — remains shut for all intents. 

Why it matters: This isn't just a geopolitics story like most think. Every dollar crude stays above $100 puts upward pressure on inflation, which keeps the Fed on hold, which squeezes growth stocks and makes every rate-sensitive name in your portfolio feel the pain. 

This is the environment I warned about in the One Bar Ahead® January Outlook — and it's not over apparently. 

Something I have also noted on TV recently. (Watch) 

What to do: Energy producers with strong free cash flow, a wide footprint and excellent management remain your shock absorbers. Think integrated majors and pipelines — not the wildcatters. 

If you're already in ‘em, I suggest you stay put. If you're not, now's the time to ask yourself why not. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Forget about whether or not they're "expensive" because the most important skill you can learn right now is to calculate the future cost of decisions you make today. 

2 – NASA just went back to space… I still want SpaceX 

You can’t make this stuff up. 

NASA just launched Artemis to send humans farther into space than ever before and, not 2 hours after launch, the toilet broke. (Read) 

I’d rather own SpaceX. 

You can bet they’d work differently if Tesla Engineers designed ‘em. No word on FSD to the loo, though. 

Keith's Investing Tip: The best time to get ahead of a gold rush is before everybody else figures out there's gold. 

OBAers: We’ve got a plan and it’s one we’re sticking to; more to follow in this week’s update. 😁 

3 – The Dragon is coming to dinner, and Stellantis wants a seat at the table 

Stellantis-backed Leapmotor just delivered 110,155 vehicles in Q1 2026 — exceeding 100,000 units for the fourth straight quarter, up nearly 26% from a year ago. (Read) 

VW has a similar partnership with a Chinese automaker. So does GM. 

See the pattern? 

Western automakers aren't competing with China anymore — they're partnering with them because they have no choice. Leapmotor builds its own batteries and powertrains in-house, which means higher margins and lower costs than almost anyone in the West can match. They're targeting 1 million vehicles sold in 2026. That's not a startup. That's a category killer in the making. 

This is what happens when you spend 20 years making slightly better versions of the same thing while someone else reinvents the entire game. Ford, are you listening or are you simply going to throw more stuff against the wall to see what sticks. 

Why it matters: This story shows just how desperate Western makers are to deal with China before they get consumed by it. Investors would be smart to put aside any personal feelings on the matter. 

I’ve spent decades banging around in the Pacific Rim including plenty of time in China itself so my view is based on first-hand experience. Most Westerners have no idea what’s coming our way and whether they like it or not is immaterial. So don’t get caught up in how you “feel” about China – your money won’t care but China’s will. 

The Dragon is coming to dinner. The only decision you have to make as an investor is whether you want to be at the table or on the menu. 

What to do: I wouldn't touch Stellantis (STLA) here — they're still working through serious problems of their own. But the Chinese EV supply chain story — batteries, components, vertically integrated manufacturers — is very much alive and investable if you know where to look. I'll be here if you want to know what's on my shopping list → and if you have that covered, cool beans. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest® — right now the "best" in EVs may not be where most Western investors are looking. 

4 – Eli Lilly just changed the weight loss game – Novo Nordisk says no way 

The FDA approved Eli Lilly's new once-daily GLP-1 pill, Foundayo, yesterday — and it starts shipping Monday. Unlike Novo Nordisk's rival oral Wegovy, Foundayo can be taken at any time of day with no food or water restrictions whatsoever. Starting price: $149/month out of pocket, or as low as $25/month with commercial insurance. (Read) 

Analysts project Foundayo alone could hit nearly $15 billion in annual sales by 2030. Lilly shares jumped more than 4% on the news. 

This morning, Novo Nordisk says pfffffff! (Read) 

I don’t care either way. 

Let ‘em fight it out… I’ve got my fingers in other choices with what I believe are considerably better, more durable profit potential. But that’s a story for another time. 

MyPOV… 

Why it matters: Fewer than 1 in 10 people who could benefit from a GLP-1 drug are currently taking one. The injectable form was always a barrier for a huge chunk of that market. A simple, flexible daily pill changes the math completely. This isn't a niche drug story — it's a healthcare access story, a population health story, and a very significant revenue story for Eli Lilly (LLY). 

What to do: LLY has been one of the great long-term growth stories for a very long time. With Zepbound, Mounjaro, Foundayo, and the even more potent Retatrutide still in the pipeline, I submit it’s probably an interesting choice. If you don't have LLY exposure and you've been waiting for a reason, this could be as good a reason as any. 

Keith's Investing Tip: The best investments aren't complicated — they solve real problems for real people at scale. 

5 – “I threw it in the garbage” too 

Brad Reese, grandson of H.B. Reese — the man who invented the Peanut Butter Cup — publicly called out Hershey earlier this year for quietly swapping out classic ingredients for cheaper alternatives in some products. Compound coatings instead of real milk chocolate. That sort of thing. (Read) 

He said he threw it in the garbage. 

I did, too.  

Reese’s Peanut Butter Cups were my favorite for years then a few years back I ate one and got so sick I swore I’d never eat one again. 

Not a surprise. 

Look at the ingredients. 

MILK CHOCOLATE (Sugar, Cocoa Butter, Chocolate, Skim Milk, Milk Fat, Lactose, Lecithin (Soy), PGPR), Peanuts, Sugar, Dextrose, Salt, TBHQ & Citric Acid (to maintain freshness). 

The headline villains are… 

• PGPR (Polyglycerol Polyricinoleate) — a cheap emulsifier made from castor oil, used to replace cocoa butter and cut costs 
• TBHQ (Tert-Butylhydroquinone) — a chemical preservative banned at Whole Foods, made from butane 
• Citric Acid — a second preservative, manufactured using black mold 

Hershey, of course, is now reversing course — promising to phase out the cheaper stuff and return to traditional recipes by 2027. 

Brad Reese called it "a PR move" and "total bunk."  

He's probably right. 

The original 1928 recipe had just 6 ingredients: chocolate, peanut butter, sugar, dextrose, salt, and lecithin. Six. 

Why it matters: This isn't really a candy story but a brand story with a powerful lesson for investors worldwide. Brands translate to revenue and earnings faster than most CEOs expect. When a company starts quietly trimming quality to goose margins, that’s usually a sign that growth is harder to come by than they're letting on.  

Then consumers notice because, well, they always do.  

McDonald’s swapped out beef tallow for vegetable oil in the company’s fries in 1990 before adding “back” natural beef flavor to try to recover the taste. Most consumers say they’ve never been the same. Including yours truly. 

Cadbury’s Creme Egg swapped out Dairy Milk chocolate shells for a cheaper blend in 2015. Sales tanked by nearly $8 million immediately. 

And of course, Coke which famously got trashed for “new Coke” back in 1985. 🙄 

Hershey (HSY) has had a rough go of it. The stock is down around 27% from its highs and the company is navigating higher cocoa costs, GLP-1 headwinds on snack consumption, and now a self-inflicted brand credibility problem. 

What to do: I'm not a buyer – of either the stock or the candy. When a company has to be shamed by the founder's family into maintaining its own standards, that tells you something about the culture. There are far better consumer staples with pricing power, loyal customers and management teams that don't need a LinkedIn post to remind them what made the company great.  

Putskies are a pretty appealing idea here – meaning a bet that the stock declines.  

Keith's Investing Tip: The best companies never have to be reminded why customers loved them in the first place. 

Bottom Line 

Chaos is uncomfortable, and uncertainty is unsettling because it rattles markets. 

But here's the thing and what I want you to understand about it. 

Every single one of today's headlines is a story about the world reorganizing itself around new realities: energy, AI, defense, healthcare, gold and more. 

Chaos creates opportunity and the more of the former there is, the more of the latter you have. 

The investors who come out ahead won't be the ones who predicted exactly what Trump (or anybody else) said last night. They'll be the ones who stayed invested in the right companies, kept their emotions out of the cockpit, and refused to confuse noise with signal. 

Be that investor. 

All signal, no noise. 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀