☕️ Netflix & Tesla earnings on deck – buy this not that
Oct 20, 2025Howdy! 👋
It’s always nice to return to the office after some time on the road and see some green.
This week especially with big earnings on deck.
Many investors are wondering.
Is recent volatility the start of something more serious or the usual run of the mill October shenaniganry? (Watch)
No matter what your opinion, remember two things.
- Opportunity is what you make of it; and
- investing in optimism beats cowering in fear
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Big earnings and a rally to the end of the year?
The super savvy Stuart Varney very kindly asked me back once again for my thoughts regarding whether or not I still see a rally into year end, my take on this week’s action and of course, both Netflix and Tesla which report.
It’s always an honour – both to be on and to know you’re watching! 💯 (Watch)
2 - Amazon hiccups, half the internet sneezes
AWS — Amazon’s cloud arm and the backbone of modern tech — went down early today, taking names like Disney+, Snapchat, Duolingo, Reddit, Coinbase, Canva, and even airline websites like Delta and United along for the ride. (Read)
Amazon blamed an “operational issue” in its U.S. East data region.
It’s a powerful reminder of how dependent the digital world has become on a handful of cloud providers — and how fragile that concentration can be.
Reminds me of CrowdStrike last summer.
One system hiccupped, and half the internet sneezed.
Never mind Amazon shares which are higher this morning as the recovery gets underway.
I’m more interested in CrowdStrike, which is running higher and faster. Shares are +$9.41 and 1.94% versus AMZN which is +$1.63 and 0.77% respectively, as I type.
Not for nothing, but CrowdStrike has outperformed Amazon over the past 1-,3-, 5- and 10-year periods… just sayin.
If I’m in firm command of the obvious and you've already got this covered – great!
I bring it up because most investors do not (have it covered) which is why they’re falling behind despite the best intentions. And if you’d like some help in getting ahead of this stuff like the One Bar Ahead® Family has been, I’ll be here.
Keith’s Investing Tip: People constantly want to invest in the hot stocks, but a situation like this one shows that it’s better to “buy this, not that.”
3 – Regional banks, the Euro version?
European banks including UniCredit, Barclays, NatWest and Lloyds all report this week. (Read)
I’m leery.
Lloyds just announced a £1.95B ($2.4B) hit on car loans that could cost UK lenders ~£11B. Just while Barclays is also bracing for margin pressure and credit jitters ahead of earnings.
Forget earnings themselves.
An ongoing deterioration in credit quality will be the real issue.
The US version hit last week but this could throw a spanner in things quickly if Euro bankers don’t choose their words carefully.
Trade Idea: Putskies – a bet that shares decline - on iShares MSCI Europe Financials (EUFN), a Euro banking ETF.
4 – Buy businesses, not politics
White House economic adviser Kevin Hassett says a deal to stop the now 17-day old U.S. government shutdown is “likely to happen this week.” (Read)
I’ll believe it when I see it. 🤔
Meanwhile, I’m going to continue to invest in businesses that can succeed despite what’s happening.
Money is like water in that it tends to flow where it’s treated best. 💡
It also tends to rotate quickly back into strength — meaning into the companies still posting profits, raising dividends, and buying back shares while everyone else argues about headlines.
That’s where the real opportunity is.
Always has been.
MyPOV: This is yet another textbook perfect example of why you buy great businesses, not broken politics no matter which side of the aisle you call your own.
5 – Don’t fall for the clickbait, China’s growth isn’t weak
CNBC is out this morning with a report highlighting a “rare and alarming” drop in China’s GDP. (Read)
Not. So. Fast.
Industrial production rose 6.5% while consumer spending is up 3%.
The reason fixed asset investment (including real estate) dropped is because China’s economy is transitioning from one that’s based on making stuff to all things digital.
The real worry would be if the numbers didn’t reflect this, but the pontificators will never tell you as much.
China’s growth is not weak – it’s evolving.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Never bet against evolution, only those who fail to adapt.
What’s happening, btw, reinforces the case for several key investments in the OBA Model Portfolio and I’ll be sharing more detail in today’s update a few hours from now.
Bottom Line
The markets are great at making you uncomfortable in the short-term if you’re in ‘em, and the best in the world at making you uncomfortable longer-term if you’re not.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and a strong start to the week!
You got this – I promise!
Keith 😀
