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Dec 15, 2025

Howdy from Kyoto! 👋

I’m watching US pre-markets with bated breath.

Futures are green as I type, and it would be nice to see ‘em stay that way while I get my brain back in gear after some time off with my family.

I can’t wait to “spool up” as pilots say.

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism any day, every day.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – AI could drive $263B in holiday sales

CNBC is reporting that Zeta Global and other organizations say that: (Read):

As much as 83% of consumers plan to use AI for shopping this holiday season

Shoppers arriving on retail sites via generative AI are 30% more likely to buy something and 14% more engaged than those that come from non-AI sources

What catches my attention is even better and potentially more profitable.

Get this.

AI-driven shopping visits now generate roughly 8% more revenue per online session,
AI tools are helping consumers spot deals they couldn’t before
AI traffic to US retailers surged 760% between November 1st and December 1st.

There’s a big implication, and it’s one that many haven’t yet considered.

How do companies continue to work with traditional branding channels and social media at a time when both are failing in the face of an AI onslaught?

Time will tell but profits will prove it.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Contrary to what many believe, not all retailers are the same, which is why you want to prioritize those with what I call higher AI materiality, a key One Bar Ahead® investing metric based on decades of research. Case in point, my favorite has returned 149.90% over the past 3 years while the S&P 500 has returned 73.53% over the same time frame.

2 – Powell’s parting words are a riot

Fed Chairman Jerome “it’s transitory” Powell now says he wants to “turn this job over” with the economy in really good shape. (Read) 🤦‍

I could hardly contain my laughter.

Here’s the guy who missed the inflation crisis information by a country mile, called it transitory when it appeared and then held rates high for too long.

I don’t think he would know what an economy in good shape looks like if he had it plopped in front of him on a platter. But I digress.

Central bankers grade themselves on intention, but the markets grade themselves on results.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Always trust the scoreboard, not the press conference.

Trade Idea: I think Powell’s exit could create a sharp rally if the markets like his replacement. People are placing bets on who, but I think “anybody but Powell” is the real play here.

A few possibilities… S&P 500 calls – a bet that prices rise. This could also be a rare instance where a highly leveraged S&P ETF makes sense (if, and only if you understand the risks) as an extremely short-term play.

The timing will be tricky, though, because there is no set date by which US President Donald Trump will announce a successor so this is one of those situations that will literally be sprung on the markets – a reason to keep positions small if you’re inclined to make a bet.

3 – Cannabis stocks get a boost

Word is that US President Donald Trump wants to reclassify pot stocks as a Schedule III drug which would reduce oversight to levels consistent with prescription painkillers and other drugs. (Read)

Pot stocks popped, of course.

Cue the confetti cannons and Reddit Rangers. My guess is that there will be a new slew of sleezy marketing material masquerading as research from the clickbait artists forthcoming, too.

Should you buy the likes of Tilray Brands, SNDL and Canopy Growth given that the President’s signature may come today?

I’m not.

Cannabis stocks are a master class in cash burn, dilution and under-delivering while overpromising.

And if you just can’t resist?

Fine, I get it – you’re not alone, but here’s the thing.

Treat the news for what it is… a quick light up. Short-term spreads or volatility trades only. Long-term belief investing hasn’t paid off and likely won’t given the (legal) competition.

Putskies for when the high fades – pun absolutely intended.

Or munchies stocks if that doesn’t happen. 😜

Keith’s Investing Tip: Smoke clears. Fundamentals don’t.

4 – iRobot goes “BK”

I told a hushed room a while back at the MoneyShow in Orlando that I expected iRobot to be out of business or pursuing a radically different direction within 3-5 years.

Imagine my lack of surprise when I read earlier today that iRobot – Roomba’s maker – has filed for bankruptcy and is pursuing a management buyout. (Read)

At the risk of sounding like a broken record… buy the best, ignore the rest.

Meanwhile, think about robotics as a sub-component of industrial and defense automation, native platforms and software first systems with recurring revenue and – yep – durable profit potential at scale.

It’s a short list.

And if you have no idea where to start but getting started is something you’d like to do, I’ll be here.

5 – Japan copies the EU tech playbook and misses the lesson

One of the things I like about being home in Kyoto is that I get to look at world events firsthand from outside the continental United States and without the selective news media’s first swing at things.

Case in point, Tokyo’s bumbling bureaucrats want to regulate big tech to “balance” the playing field. (Read)

Seems to me that what they actually did was study the EU and effectively copy the worst parts.

Europe spent more than a decade regulating American tech giants and the result wasn’t European champions. In fact, the opposite has happened… stronger US platforms operating globally, weaker local competitions and a continent that now rents digital infrastructure from everybody else while continuing to squabble over homegrown solutions.

I’ve seen this playbook so many times.

You have, too.

EU apparatchiks didn’t slow down big tech, but they did slow down Europe.

And now Japan wants the same playbook?!?!

Makes no sense.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Governments that regulate outcome instead of enabling competition help the incumbents win by default.

Trade Idea: If there’s ever an argument to buy Alphabet, this is it considering Google has an 80-82% search market share and is the clear #1 choice for Japanese users. I’m not saying it’s the needle mover but possibly quite a strong input.