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☕️ Nvidia is the “next Nvidia”

Oct 09, 2025

Howdy! 👋

All three indices – the S&P 500, the Nazzy and the DJIA – posted record closes yesterday.

Today, they’re taking a breather as I type.

Good.

As much as many people would love to see everything going all the time, that’s just not possible. Nor is it realistic.

The markets require buying AND selling to work normally so a small “give back” is a sign that things are working like they’re supposed to.

I hope you’re ready.

Yesterday, I told you…

It doesn’t matter if you’re an investor or a trader.

Chances are good you’ll have some great profit potential on the table today.

Learn to live with Wall Street, even if you’re not on Wall Street – there’s plenty of opportunity either way!!!

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Pepsi earnings: bubbles, not bite

PepsiCo reported Q3 earnings this morning that look solid at first glance: (Read)

Earnings per share: $2.29 (adjusted) vs. $2.26 expected

Revenue: $23.94 billion vs. $23.83 billion expected

I see a different picture when I pop the top – pun absolutely intended.

Net income: $2.6 billion ($1.90 per share), down from $2.93 billion ($2.13 per share) a year ago

Organic revenue growth: +1.3%

Worldwide volume: –1% overall
• North American snacks: –4%
• North American beverages: –3%

The company’s leaning hard on “innovation” to keep the story alive and so far the street seems to be buying it – another pun absolutely intended. 🤷🏻‍

But how far are Doritos Protein, “NKD” chips with no dyes or synthetic flavors, and cheaper multipacks aimed at price-conscious shoppers gonna get ya?

Pepsi’s true shareholder yield – TSY - sits at 1.41%, which is still positive but not great even after 53 consecutive years of dividend increases and a 10-year annualized dividend growth rate of 7.48%.

Solid, yes — but Coke’s true shareholder yield is higher at 2.16%, with dividend growth of 4.59% and better 1-, 3-, 5-, and 10-year performance.

What catches my attention though is this.

Neither company has managed to beat the S&P 500 over any of those same periods, which is why I don’t own ‘em and worry about scores of investors who do.

Just sayin’ 🤔

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors crave dividends but they’re not always what they’re cracked up to be. The better metric in my book is TSY because you can get a better bead on what the company is really doing with your money (and whether or not it’s a great investment).

2 – Delta is the better buy imho

The company just released a new profit forecast that tops estimates. (Read)

I told you a while back that the company’s reinvention as a lifestyle brand would pay off if it could support 1) higher fares, 2) luxury demand, and 3) better long-haul routing.

Looks like I may have been on to something.

I’ve got to fly ‘em next week and in early November.

Now for the tough part.

As much as I am learning to love Delta again after years of not flying ‘em, airlines are generally a losing bet. Or at least a “less upside” bet in the scheme of things.

There’s only so much you can do to distinguish flying in a tube with a few hundred of your closest friends from the competition. Especially when you have choices like Nvidia to name one at random up for grabs.

Delta’s returned ~86.11% over the past 5 years – which is plenty respectable – while Nvidia has turned in ~1,304.78%, a roughly 15-to-1 advantage.

No doubt you see my point.

Trade Idea: Still, a lot of folks love airlines so here’s a trade idea… long Delta / short United at the same time (aka a pairs trade). Or just simply buy Nvidia and fly Delta. 😀

3 – Beijing flex on rare earths is “reverse TikTok”

China just expanded export controls on rare earths — this time extending from raw materials to intellectual property and technology. (Read)

Companies using Chinese extraction or refining tech will now need Beijing’s approval to export anything containing even 0.1% Chinese-sourced minerals. Interestingly, Chinese citizens are also barred from overseas mining without authorization.

Rare earths power EVs, wind turbines, smartphones, missiles, and semiconductors. China controls roughly 70% of global supply.

What I think is really going on.

This isn’t a coincidence.

Beijing wants leverage a few weeks ahead of a potential Trump/Xi meeting. What’s more, it also likely wants “even” for the whole TikTok thing.

A bargaining chip, really.

No surprise with the likes of MP Materials, Trilogy Metals, and Lithium Americas now soaring.

They’re definitely for the quick money crowd and good on ya if you’re one of ‘em.

I’m gonna stick with choices farther up the food chain. It’s not perfect, but it works for me at a fraction of the risk associated with raw materials stocks that are quickly turning into a game of whack-a-mole.

If this sort of thinking is of interest, you may find One Bar Ahead® helpful in the pursuit of profits. Folks tell me that what they’ve learned as an OBAer has changed their financial future forever and that’s humbling as heck!

4 – Nvidia is the “next Nvidia”

Nvidia just got the green light to sell billions of dollars’ worth of AI chips to the United Arab Emirates. (Read)

The deal allows the UAE to import up to 500,000 of Nvidia’s most advanced processors each year as part of a broader push to build new AI data centers and infrastructure across the region.

In return, the UAE is committing major investment toward AI development using Nvidia’s hardware.

People constantly tell me they don’t want to miss the next Nvidia — but what they’re missing is that Nvidia is the next Nvidia.

Is it too late to buy?

Not even close imho.

The next stage of AI growth won’t just come from Silicon Valley but from every country building the capacity to compute – a process I labelled as sovereign AI starting in 2017 when, during a presentation at the MoneyShow, I framed it as a national strategic priority tied to economic, military and financial sovereignty.

Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang began popularizing the term in 2023 in reference to governments developing domestic AI infrastructure while closely echoing my earlier framing.

Nothing like a little vindication from the very best! 💯

Anyway, that’s neither here nor there.

Nvidia has returned 45.52%, 1,502.70%, and 1,300.91% over the past 1,3- and 5-year periods, respectively. The S&P 500, by comparison, has turned in 17.16%, 85.14%, and 95.48%.

There are obviously no guarantees it’ll go higher but I think the odds are better than good it will.

Meanwhile a few well-placed LowBall orders could be just the ticket. Selling Cash Secured Puts, too. 😀

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many aspiring investors flit from stock to stock in search of a big runner – and that works against ‘em over time. I am hard pressed to think of a bigger mistake. There’s no need to switch horses in a race you’re winning.

5 – Enzo is probably rolling over in his grave

Shares of Ferrari are down more than 13% — the company’s worst trading day since listing in 2016 — after management unveiled long-term guidance that sputtered. (Read)

At its Capital Markets Day, Ferrari projected €9 billion in 2030 revenue and €3.6 billion in EBITDA, barely above prior estimates and below Wall Street’s lower-growth case.

The Street wanted acceleration, but Ferrari delivered cruise control.

I can only shake my head.

Ferrari once defined performance innovation. The Enzo set speed records. The LaFerrari pioneered hybrid supercars a decade before most rivals.

Today, it’s hedging… at best.

Meanwhile, Tesla’s new, albeit long-delayed Roadster promises 0-to-60 in under 2 seconds and 600-plus miles of range.

Prancing horse or not, Ferrari has a serious contender.

I’d say “zoom-zoom” but that was Mazda’s slogan and aptly so back in the day when I had an Rx7 and an early Miata that were inexpensive to operate and a blast to drive!

I can’t help but wonder if F1 has a problem on its hands.

Imagine what happens when Tesla masters quick charge technology and can give that crowd a run for its money using electric power only instead of the current electric kinetic energy recovery systems currently on board.

I’ve got to imagine that Enzo (Ferrari) is rolling over in his grave.

Buy Tesla and short or avoid Ferrari.