☕ Nvidia, Walmart and why markets keep rising despite high gas, war and inflation

Howdy! 👋 

It's great to be back in the PNW after a wonderful trip home to Japan to spend time with family and visit with dear friends — including the fabulous Suze Orman and her wife KT. 

I'm not sure if my mind or my body is halfway across the Pacific just yet, but that's where — I suspect — plenty of great coffee will come in! 😀🎯☕️ 

Here's the thing about Japan that I love and miss the moment I leave. 

Time works differently there. 

Not in a jet-lag way — though that too — but in the way that a 400-year-old temple sits serenely next to a vending machine selling hot canned coffee, and neither one finds the other remotely strange.  

You walk into a garden that hasn't changed hundreds of years and the noise in your head just… stops.  

The urgency evaporates.  

Markets, headlines, whatever Twitter — sorry, X — is screaming about that morning… none of it follows you through the gate. 

Japan’s the one place on earth where I genuinely lose track of what day it is and don't care even a little bit. 

But here we are, back on Pacific time and back in the game — and as I mentioned in my Sunday short from Kyoto, we have a big week ahead. 

Let's get after it! 

There is a ton of profit potential out there at the moment and I say grab your share or someone else will. 

What a GREAT time to be an investor! 🎯 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – How markets keep going up despite high rates, gasoline and more 

Nothing like jumping back in the pool with both feet – hooyah! 

The venerable Stuart Varney kindly invited me back this morning ahead of today’s opening bell for a look at how (and why) markets continue to rise despite three otherwise super negative influences not the least of which are rising rates. 

Plus, my take on Nvidia and Walmart – both of which report this week. (Watch) 

2 - Time to buy Berkshire Hathaway?  

I’ve stayed away from Berkshire Hathaway for years because I didn’t get the sense the Unka B really understood the rise of AI (among other things) and I am glad I did. BRK has trailed the S&P 500 for years and badly. 

Now, I find myself wondering if it’s time to buy. 

New CEO Greg Abel has just cleaned house… boosting the number of Google shares BRK owns by 224%, adding Delta (which if you’re gonna own an airline would be my choice) and Macy’s which I don’t understand (but clearly he sees something). 

I think what Abel’s dumped speaks volumes. 

Visa and Mastercard… both gone with the wind. Dominos… poof. Amazon… see ya. Diageo… outta here, Charter Communications… bu-bye. 

Interestingly, BoA and Apple were spared. 

Hmmm. 

Scuttlebutt is that long time Buffettiti are terrified but those who thought he outstayed his welcome are thrilled. 

MyPOV is that a) you can’t turn an ocean liner overnight and b) when a new leader starts ripping up the playbook, that tells you something about where he or she thinks the world is headed.  

Either way and regardless of whether you agree or not, it's worth paying attention. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest!® The time to evaluate a new captain isn't when they first grab the wheel — it's after you've seen how they handle the first real storm.  

3 – No, Trump didn’t come away empty handed 

Russian President Vladimir Putin will travel to Beijing, just days after U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit, to meet his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping. 

The two leaders “will discuss current bilateral matters, ways to further strengthen the comprehensive partnership and strategic cooperation between the Russian Federation and the People’s Republic of China, and exchange views on key international and regional matters,” the Kremlin said. 

Translation? 

“Okay, Xi, Unka Vlad wants you to spill the beans.” 

The visit comes just days after President Trump wrapped his own meetings with Xi — showing how seriously Moscow is watching Washington's every move in Asia. 

MyPOV: The fact that there isn't a new policy on Taiwan is a win for the world because it means that all three parties — China, the US and Taiwan — understand each other and avoids the hardline that would come with making it a political issue in three capitals simultaneously. 

I expect big new deals in China and with China over the next six months as a result of discussions and groundwork laid this trip. Starting with big tech. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I’ve long said that you want to invest because of China, not necessarily in China with a few very specific exceptions that the OBA Family, of course, knows all about. 

4 – Meta’s nightmare could get worse 

More than 3 years after El Zucko said “my bad” when it came to job cuts, the company is handing roughly 10% of the workforce their walking papers starting Wednesday of this week and CNBC is reporting that the company has also scrapped plans to fill 6,000 open roles. 

Call me crazy but this is coming right from the C-Suite where the tone has changed remarkably.  

Lawsuits and crappy stock performance have a way of doing that. 

What to do if you own META? 🤔 

I think that’s a legitimate question. 

I want to own it and recommend doing so through a back door using a large fund to help keep risk down but have stayed away from the stock itself directly because I (still) don’t trust Zuck himself. 

The ongoing emergence of some sort of dystopian empire with huge swathes of Meta employees voicing increasingly harsh and revealing comments about what it’s like to work there isn’t exactly inspiring. 

5 – NextEra: here's what dividend investors aren't asking yet but should 

NextEra is buying Dominion Energy — the utility that powers the world's largest data center market in Northern Virginia — in a $67 billion all-stock deal. (Read) 

The dividend crowd is cheering. 

That’s premature, imho. 

Here's the question nobody's asking: What does a $67 billion all-stock deal do to the dividend? 

NEE's stock fell more than 4% on the announcement. That's the market doing the same math I am on dilution, integration costs, and regulatory risk.  

They should… this is the largest power sector M&A deal on record.  

Deals this size don't exactly sail through FERC and four state utility commissions without conditions, delays, and real money spent fighting for approval.   

Regulated utilities are supposed to be boring.  

This deal is the opposite. 

That’s dangerous. 

Look, the AI power demand is real but I get concerned when staid utility executives start acting like growth experts for the simple reason that’s not their skillset. 

Back in the late 1990s, PacifiCorp did much the same thing when it went on a global buying spree, acquiring The Energy Group — a sprawling UK and Australian coal conglomerate — for $10.7 billion.  

Executives got completely over their skis, the company buckled under the debt, and PacifiCorp had to be rescued by ScottishPower.  

Shareholders got crushed in the process. 

If you own NEE already, keeping it probably makes sense but if you’re eyeballing it, I respectfully submit that there may be better alternatives out there without monster mergers attached. 

Seems to me that there are other more direct ways to get to AI driven dividends and growth, too. OBAers know what I'm watching instead → 😁 

Keith's Investing Tip: The best dividend is the one still growing five years from now — not the one that looks good today. 

Bottom Line 

Missed opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

As always, let's MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

Keith 😀