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May 12, 2025

Howdy 👋

I hate to say I told you so, but in this case, I did.

Dozens of times.

“The markets will be gone like a shot” when China comes to the table.

I also told you emphatically that anybody who went to the sidelines or who gave in to their emotions would have an epic problem on their hands… getting back in.

To be clear, I am not telling you this to brag; I could easily have been wrong. This is a very, very tough business and it’s always humbling to be spot on with big moves like this one and, again, at that.

What’s next?

That’s actually the interesting part and potentially very profitable, too.

FOMO – the fear of missing out.

Every naysayer, doomsayer and party pooper now has to figure out how to get back on board or come to terms with the fact that they’re getting left behind.

And for everybody who’s on board and who continued to buy in as I suggested?

There’s a good case you’ll be sitting in fat city.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Does this rally have legs, gold and which stock to buy?

The super-savvy Stuart Varney had three very important questions for me ahead of this morning’s opening bell… does the rally have legs, gold and which stock to buy?

What happens today could be child’s play compared to what happens next.

As for gold and the stock?

Well, you’ll just have to watch – the answers might surprise you. (Watch)

2 – Gold could fall by 50%

Very simple story.

One that is undoubtedly going to catch millions of folks by surprise.

I think gold could fall by 50% in the next 12-24 months.

“Gold’s in for a train wreck,” I said specifically on April 14th in the One Bar Ahead® weekly update. I also noted similar caution right here in the 5 with Fitz on March 14th. (See #3)

This isn’t rocket science.

And, still true today.

There are still scores of reasons why the shine could come off.

A Fed rate cut, real growth, peace potential in Russia/Ukraine, China tariffs, cease fire in India/Pakistan… and that’s just for starters.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Smart money never waits for permission — it moves before the headlines hit. The best trades and investments are already in motion in keeping with Keith’s Rule of the Back Page which has just become stories for the front page.

Btw and not for nothing, but the OBA Family has once again had a head start on all this thanks to a proprietary indicator I developed called the BBSI (Bull Bear State Indicator) which flashed “go” several weeks ago.

Hopefully, you’ve got analysis you trust, too. I say that because there’s no excuse in today’s day and age for getting caught offsides again… or at least that’s my two cents.

3 – Walgreens: still rearranging pills on the Titanic

Walgreens is proudly rolling out prescription-filling robots like it just invented the wheel. The company claims its shiny new micro-fulfillment centers now process 16 million prescriptions a month and have saved $500 million by trimming inventory and freeing up pharmacists for “higher-value” work. (Read)

Cool beans.

But here's the thing...

You don’t need robots when the real prescription is a new business model.

I’ve long flagged Walgreens as a “portfolio killer,” and the numbers suggest I may have been on to something.

While Walgreens has flushed –64.90% of investor capital over the past five years, my personal fave and competitor is +153.46% and the S&P has cruised to +93.18% over the same time frame.

If you’re gonna fall for something, fall for returns not turnaround hype.

I’ll pass on WBA, thank you very much.

You?

4 – Crude oil isn’t so crude after all – imagine that!

Crude oil’s been trading like the world’s heading into a deep recession but now that narrative is cracking.

More specifically, it was wrong in the first place.

The naysayers, pontificators and prognosticators who have collectively priced in 10 of the last 2 actual recessions are now scrambling to reprice reality.

Black gold is +4% this morning.

Oil’s rally isn’t just about energy — it’s a signal.

You know what to do.

And if you don’t?

Consider buying the majors, particularly those with a global footprint and an ultra-strong True Shareholder Yield – TSY for short.

If you know how to find companies like the ones I’m describing, excellent. It’ll do your portfolio a whole lot of good if you stick with ‘em.

And if you’d like some help, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead® where my favorite choice has a TSY (True Shareholder Yield) of 8.06% versus the listed 4.63% commonly displayed on many websites.

5 – Tesla just got legs

Tesla hit a 52-week low of $167.41 and critics insisted that it was done for… DOGE would kill it… Elon’s gone nuts… competition is coming… valuations… the brand is done and so on.

I told you it was a screaming buy and would likely return to $300 within the year.

I hope you paid attention and, more importantly, snapped up at least a few shares.

Today TSLA’s trading at $317.44 as I type.

The anti-Elon at all costs club is quick to point out, “yeah but” TSLA is still down –35.41% from a 52-week high of $488.54 per share set on 18 December 2024.

True.

Two things here.

The world’s most successful investors focus continually on being profitable whereas the wannabes focus on being right – and there’s a big difference.

Pros know that it’s possible to make money in both directions – up and down – and that being “right” often is gravy.

To be clear.

There is nothing wrong with not investing in a company like Tesla because you don’t like the CEO or can’t deal with his behaviour. For some folks, that’s Musk. For me, it’s El Zucko and has been for a long time.

The key is to coming to terms with the fact that you could miss out on a lot of money AND learning to celebrate ALL those who have a different view than your own.