☕️ Palantir & AMD set to report, here’s what I'm looking for

Howdy! 👋 

What a way to start the week! 

The S&P 500 closed Friday at 7,230.12 and this morning is up modestly again to 7,235.84, a gain of ~9.96% over the past month. 

I hope you’re on board. 

Yes, the recent dip was undeniably unsettling for many, but those who “leaned in” had the chance to do very, very well. 

Not for nothing and at the risk of sounding like a broken record, the cost of missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Speaking of which… 

As of last Friday, some 63% or so of the S&P 500 companies had reported Q1 2026 results. 

• 84% have delivered a positive EPS surprise and 81% a positive revenue surprise.  
• The blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for Q1 2026 stands at 27.1% — the highest since Q4 2021. Keep in mind that estimates were 13.1% coming into this earnings season. 

Context matters… a lot! 

As I noted late last night in this tweet, the markets are technically extended so you’ll want to stay frosty. 

Why? 

Institutions sitting on substantial gains heading into a dense earnings week have both the incentive and the means to engineer a pullback irrespective of how strong the earnings actually are – and my expectation is that they’ll be great. 

If that occurs – and I want to be blunt – chances are very, very good that’s simple profit-taking after an unprecedented run higher not a structural breakdown. 

My revised S&P 500 year-end target is 7,500+, approximately 4.5% from current levels. That is an entirely achievable destination — even if the path ahead includes a detour. 

There’s a good case to be made that the underlying story and the themes we are following are stronger than ever. 💯 

It’s important we remain focused. 

Speaking of which, I’ve got to be focused on catching a flight home to Japan which means making a beeline for the airport shortly. 

With your grace, here’s a quick look at a conversation I had ahead of today’s opening bell with the fabulous Stuart Varney who kindly invited me back to his show for a look at three biggies… Palantir, AMD and Amazon. (Watch) 

Watch for post earnings dips in the first two and a broader market give back on the latter. All are opportunities, imho. 

And finally, a quick look at other stuff on my radar today: 

1 – GameStop + eBay = Amazon rival? 

Yes, that GameStop — a company worth $12 billion and a meme stock monster — just made an unsolicited $55.5 billion offer to acquire eBay, with CEO Ryan Cohen declaring he wants to turn it into a genuine Amazon competitor. He's apparently got $20 billion in financing and $9.4 billion in cash, and if the board says no, he goes straight to shareholders. MyPOV? Bold isn't the same as smart — this is either the greatest turnaround play in a decade or the most expensive meme in history. 🍿 

Keith's Investing Tip: Make sure you know whether you're betting on bold or smart. They're not always the same thing.

2 – Spirit Airlines – claim your baggage 

Spirit Airlines is done — permanently shut down after creditors rejected a last-ditch rescue including a rumored $500 million government lifeline. Rising costs, no pricing power, a grounded fleet, and a blocked JetBlue merger left them with no Plan B. The no-frills model isn't dead, but the margin for error is razor thin and cheap isn't a business model and never has been imho.  

Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest!® 

3 – Meta in court again 

Meta is back in a New Mexico courtroom — round two after a jury already hit them with $375 million in round one, plus a fresh loss in Los Angeles — and now the AG wants $3.7 billion more. Meta's response was to threaten pulling Facebook and Instagram from the state entirely. There are better ways to get technology exposure without this overhang.  

Keith's Investing Tip: When legal bills compound faster than earnings, that's a business problem — not just a PR one. 

4 – Amazon just opened the floodgates; everybody else’s margins just got smaller 

For the first time, Amazon is opening its entire logistics network to any outside business — meaning any company can now rent the same delivery machine that made Amazon famous. Remember what AWS did to Amazon's internal infrastructure? This is the same playbook applied to logistics — companies plug in, Amazon collects recurring revenue and data on every shipment.  

5 – Woodstock for Capitalists just got a lot quieter 

Greg Abel ran his first Berkshire annual meeting this weekend — half-empty arena, no jokes, just granular business breakdowns — while Buffett sat in the audience and took the mic just long enough to say Abel is doing "everything I did and then some." The business didn't miss a beat: operating profit up 18%, insurance underwriting up 28%, and $397 billion in cash sitting ready to deploy. Every great institution has to prove it's bigger than the person who built it — Apple did it after Jobs, and Berkshire is doing it now.  

Keith's Investing Tip: The best companies are built to outlast their founders. The question is always whether the next generation was trained well enough to prove it. 

Bottom Line 

Volatility isn't the enemy — it's the opportunity. The only question is whether you're positioned to take advantage of it or just along for the ride. 

You got this – I promise! 

And as always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

Keith 😀