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☕️ Palantir doubles up on 2 new deals

Sep 04, 2025

Howdy! 👋

The tape is split this morning as I type just after the opening bell – meaning that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq futures are both in the green, while Dow futures are pointing lower.

That tracks.

The S&P 500 is a much broader, more forward-looking representation of the economy while the Dow is increasingly a relic. The Nasdaq, of course, provides a glimpse into higher speed, lower drag tech.

The biggest takeaway for me this earnings season – and what I want you to focus on despite all the noise about rates, jobs, the Fed etc – is that a staggering 282 companies mentioned “AI” in their Q2 earnings calls.

That’s not only a record, but a 29% jump from last quarter.

Tape this chart to your mirror, your monitor or your forehead.

Every business on the planet will adapt, adopt, or die.

Grab your share, or there’s a very real possibility that somebody else will!

And if you need or would like some help finding the next “Palantir” or “Nvidia”, I’ll be here. History shows that there are 10-15 of ‘em out there in various stages of maturity right now which is why your job is as simple as it gets… find ‘em and get on board.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Wall Street wants jobs data, the best investors want profits

Wall Street has a one-track mind at times.

Today’s ADP came in at just 54,000 jobs added, blisteringly short of the 75,000 economists predicted. (Read)

My take?

The old joke is truer than you’d think.

Weather forecasters are the only people who make economists look good. 🤦‍

The number and the big miss they represent don’t matter as much as the broader theme of expansion or contraction. Both could give the Fed a reason to cut depending on who you listen to.

Either way… keep in mind that investing based on hopelessly out of date Fed decisions is a lot like trying to trade tomorrow’s markets using yesterday’s newspaper.

Here’s my take from 0-dark 30 early this morning with the fabulous Cheryl Casone on Mornings with Maria. (Watch)

Keith’s Investing Tip: The Fed is increasingly a sideshow so treat it like one. Instead, focus on companies putting up the numbers because they make, service, sell or consume “must have” goods and services the world can’t live without. Your portfolio will thank you; btw, if it’s not (yet) and you’d like some help, I’ll be here.

2 – Palantir doubles up on 2 new deals

Palantir just struck not one, but two major deals.

1. Lumen —the company that runs the backbone of the internet—is ripping out legacy systems and rebuilding itself as a next-gen tech infrastructure powerhouse. At the center of it all: Palantir’s Foundry and AIP. (Read)

Lumen says the impact is enormous—costs slashed, new revenue unlocked, and time saved at a scale that changes the business completely.

2. Lear —a global automotive leader in seating and E-systems—is expanding its partnership with Palantir for another five years. Foundry, AIP, and Warp Speed are already embedded across Lear’s global manufacturing footprint, helping manage tariff exposure, balance production lines, and automate workflows. (Read)

More than 11,000 Lear employees are on the platform, and Lear credits Palantir with $30M in savings just in the first half of 2025.

AIPCon 8 – Palantir’s flagship event where customers and partners showcase real-world AI solutions built on its Artificial Intelligence Platform (AIP) - is happening today, btw.

You can “attend” vicariously here, btw.

I can’t wait to check in when I take a break from getting the September issue of One Bar Ahead® ready! It drops tomorrow so, as always, I’m super excited to share new recommendations and research.

3 – Should you buy Figma?

IPOs (initial public offerings) are increasingly a modern-day circus. Early investors get an exit while the investing public often gets hosed.

My experience – and my advice for years - has been that it’s almost always better to wait a quarter or two before you think seriously about buying shares.

That way a) a newly public company can prove itself by racking up numbers showing that it really does have a viable business and b) investors can pay more realistic prices after insiders bail or cash in a skosh when their lockup expires.

Figma is a great case in point.

The stock dropped 14% after hours—even though it beat on revenue—because Wall Street’s suddenly worried about slowing growth compared to the strong Q2 momentum. (Read)

Should you buy?

Keep an eye on the lockup period – meaning the period for which early investors and insiders are restricted from selling their shares.

The current lockup is expected to end late January 2026 and there’s news this morning that some investors have agreed to extend that voluntarily for up to 35% of their shares.

Translation?

Prices could be artificially high for a while yet.

Perhaps too high.

Trade Idea: One way around that and a tactic to keep the odds on your side is to sell Cash Secured Puts in February or March. Doing so helps you capitalize on the expanding volatility that accompanies a price drop like this one. $40 is looking pretty tempting, at least to me anyway.

OBAers: See the May 2025 issue for detailed instructions on how to use this strategy and why you may want to. 😀 It’s available in your member portal.

4 – Lucid, forgive me if I don’t hold my breath

Lucid just closed a $300 million investment from Uber to fund their shiny new robotaxi partnership. (Read)

Supposedly, 20,000 Lucid EVs will be zipping around Uber’s network starting late next year.

Forgive me if I don’t hold my breath.

Tesla’s been chasing the robotaxi dream for a decade with billions sunk into AI and autonomy, and even they haven’t cracked it yet. Lucid — a company that can’t sell enough cars to keep the lights on — thinks it’s going to leapfrog straight into mass-scale autonomy? Please.

This feels more like a lifeline than a breakthrough.

Uber gets the headlines, Lucid gets the cash.

Investors, meanwhile, should remember that promises are cheap, but production and profits are not.

There are better fish to fry imho.

5 – Tariffs: history rhymes, markets forget

Tariffs are a controversial topic which is why I will leave the politics to everybody else.

I do money.

History is very clear.

Nearly every nation in history has leaned on tariffs or some form of ‘em at critical inflection points and investors who understand what’s happening have been handsomely rewarded.

Tariffs are not an economic “oopsie,” like most think or reflexively want to believe, but a very powerful strategic tool when used with deliberate intent.

Here are just a few examples:

England’s Navigation Acts (1651): Protected shipping, cemented global trade dominance… but also ticked off colonists enough to help spark the American Revolution and the beginnings of an entirely new economic cycle.
Colbert’s France (17th century): Tariffs + subsidies = jumpstarted industry. Sure, Europe hated it, but the French textile mills hummed.
Hamilton’s 1790s U.S. playbook: Protective tariffs weren’t a bug, they were the blueprint. No Hamilton, no industrial America.
Tariff of 1816: Shielded U.S. industries post-War of 1812 and lit the fuse on the Industrial Revolution.
Corn Laws (Britain, 1815–1846): Protected landowners, jacked up food costs, sparked riots, and eventually repealed. Sound familiar?
Bismarck’s Germany (1879): Tariffs bolstered domestic producers, cemented nationalism, and made schnitzel more expensive.
Japan’s Meiji tariffs: Protected steel, textiles, shipbuilding. Fast-forward = global power.
Smoot-Hawley (1930): The infamous cautionary tale—because politicians never saw a 20,000-item tariff list they didn’t love.
U.S. vs. Japan, 1980s: Tariffs on electronics forced Japan to the table and reshaped tech competition.

Don’t get me wrong.

Tariffs are never “clean” and it’s a mistake to think otherwise because they always come with backlash, higher costs, and political fallout. But, again, they also work when they’re used strategically  to kickstart industries, strengthen sovereignty, or force a rival’s hand.

Traders and critics can dance to the “tariffs are gone” music if they want.

Smart investors know better.

Or will.