☕ Palantir: doubters are running outta arguments

Howdy! 👋 

The S&P 500 is – gasp – heading for a 3rd straight losing week trumpet the headline mongers. 

Okay sports fans. 

Get serious. 

The VIX – which measures volatility and tends to go up as the S&P 500 declines – has a remarkable propensity to peak in mid-March then fall sharply. And that, in turn, means that the S&P 500 powers up. 

If you’re bearish – and a lot of people are at the moment – keep in mind that you’re bait for the big money which doesn’t give a rip how you feel. Like us, they know that positive developments come seemingly outta thin air when sentiment is darkest.  

That’s how you play the game. 

The world’s most successful investors always position ahead of time which is why I constantly encourage you to do the same thing. 

Burn this into your brain. 

The consistent money never leaves the game if they can help it.  

If you are not buying when the chips are down – especially when they’re down BIG – you cannot possibly be ahead when the chips are up. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – Ministry of Whitewash revises GDP 

The Ministry of Whitewash – aka the Commerce Department – revised Q4 GDP down to just 0.7%, a sharp step down and a noticeable decline from 4.4% the prior period. That means 2025’s annual figure was 2.1% versus 2.4% in 2024. (Read) 

What’s this mean for investors like us? 

Simple. 

It’s a cautionary tale that nervous money will seize on to because it makes their narrative of pending recession, doom, gloom and the AI bubble look like it has legs. In reality, this reinforces expectations that the Fed will cut rates or maintain some sort of accommodative policy – free/low cost money – to encourage growth. 

I don’t care either way. 

I am going to concentrate on what I can control rather than worrying about what I can’t. 

There’s the usual and so-called defensive stocks, of course. But the problem with that line of thinking is that Wall Street knows those names and will game ‘em.  

Stocks capable of defending earnings at all times are a far better and – dare I say it – a far more profitable choice over time. 

For example, specialized REITs like the one I’ve recommended to the OBA Family are also holding up well and are clear beneficiaries even if limited or no rate cuts come to pass. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Be in to win or history shows very clearly that you won’t. And remember, rates are for traders, but profits are for investors. 

2 – Nervous money in Dubai now headed for Hong Kong??!! 

This cracks me up. 

Everybody talks about Hong Kong like it’s suddenly the safer back-up plan if Dubai gets too hot. 

Let’s not kid ourselves about who really runs the joint. 

Beijing. 

As the Iran conflict rattles Dubai’s safe-haven image, scuttlebutt is that the world’s wealthiest families are looking for another place to park capital — and Hong Kong is trying to catch that money with fresh tax breaks and family-office incentives they’re styling after Singapore’s. (Read) 

On the surface that sounds practical... almost appealing. 

They’re swapping one kind of geopolitical risk for another, imho. 

Keith's Investing Tip: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, invest because of China and not in China except under very specific circumstances. 

3 – Palantir’s customers do the talking (again) 

Palantir just held its 9th AIPCon. (Watch) 

Doubters are running out of arguments. 

Some of the highlights from customers operating in the world’s highest stakes environments include: 

• Navy expanding AI across the fleet. Real sovereign deployment, not a slide deck. 
• GE Aerospace doubling down: agentic AI predicting failures, clearing supply snarls, freeing engineers from spreadsheets. 
• Centrus stitching classified/unclassified systems to restart American nuclear enrichment. That’s not a “pilot.” 
• Nvidia sovereign AI OS stack: hardware-to-deployment, edge-ready, secure-by-design. 
• LG CNS pushing deeper enterprise adoption. 

If you’re still on the fence, I get it but please, don’t kid yourself. 

Palantir has returned 1,400% since going public in 2020, even after all the recent selling. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Pay attention when customers grab the mic and prove the point. 

4 – “5 minute bets” are the latest crypto craze 

I’ve seen a lot of get-rich quick schemes over the years. 

There was Amazon drop shipping, copywriting, day trading from your phone in your underwear, and so on. 

Now there’s apparently “5-minute betting” in crypto. (Read) 

The premise is simple. 

Use AI to vibe-code an engine that scans for tiny price moves, fires off rapid trades, and supposedly turns a few bucks into a fortune before your coffee gets cold. Then sit back and collect the cash. 

Right. 

That’s usually when you know it’s nonsense. 

Anything built around five-minute profits isn’t investing… just dopamine with a login screen. And like other “sure things” over the years, the only people getting reliably rich are the ones selling the dream, the software, or the subscription. Sometimes all three. 

If somebody promises fast money, it’s usually because there isn’t any. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Skip the crypto casino. Buy the best, avoid the rest, and put your money to work in companies making “must have” products and services with real cash flow, real revenue, and real staying power. Or buy a specialized crypto choice with the management mojo needed to be successful. 

I’ve got a few ideas if that’s of interest and helpful. 

5 – Last person in Washington, turn out the lights 

Washington just passed a new 9.9% income tax and politicians can’t grasp the inevitable consequences. (Read) 

Money is like water and will go where it’s treated best. 

Outta Washington. 

Guess what’ll happen when Amazon, Microsoft, Starbucks, Boeing and a dozen other companies offering high paying jobs further diminish their presence. You can’t rob Peter repeatedly to pay Paul and expect Peter to stick around. 

Last night and before the ink was even dry, I heard about a multi-billion-dollar RIA who’s pulling up stakes and taking 19 highly compensated people with him. Fisher Investments made a similar call years ago when Washington started playing games with capital and taxes.  

This morning there’s news that former Starbucks CEO Howard Schultz and his wife are moving to Florida after 4 plus decades in the PNW. 

My guess is that Seattle loses the Seahawks at some point if this keeps up. 

This isn’t an isolated problem. 

You’ve read the same headlines I have as this sort of thinking has accelerated. 

Exxon is heading from Jersey to Texas and they’re not alone. SpaceX, Tesla and Coinbase have also shifted their legal incorporation to Texas citing its business-friendly environment. Florida, Nevada and so on. 

Sigh. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Money has a passport. Politicians have no clue. 

Bottom Line 

People say investing in stocks is risky. 

They’re right. 

Here’s the thing nobody wants to mention in polite conversation. 

Not investing in stocks is riskier. 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀