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☕️ Palantir, “I can’t possibly own enough shares”

Aug 04, 2025

Howdy! 👋

And just like that, the major averages are up in early going after Friday’s shellacking.

Can it continue?

Yep.

This is still a “still” market as noted in last evening’s short. (Watch)

To be clear, I do expect some volatility as earnings season tails off in the weeks ahead but that’s entirely normal AND, critically, a sign that the markets are working normally.

Remember doggonit…

Investing doesn’t have to be complicated even though most investors mistakenly believe it does.

Be in to win… or you won’t win.

Simple as that.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Palantir, “I can’t possibly own enough shares”

The venerable Stuart Varney asked me ahead of today’s opening bell about two names I’m watching very closely this week.

Palantir and IonQ. (Watch)

He very kindly remembered that I’ve been on Palantir since it was trading under $10 when he asked me to make my case that it’s going to $200.

In fact and if memory serves, I was the very first guest to mention it on his show… long before Wall Street could spell the company’s name. Pala-what, I got on a number of occasions from colleagues and many investors around the world. 🤦‍

IonQ is a similar story.

I think it is the best quantum computing company of ‘em all.

I expect IonQ to grow 3-5X within the next few years. And you just don’t see that kind of potential very often so it’s doubly important to latch on when you do.

Speaking of which….

2 – Palantir’s first $1 billion quarter?

Team Karp reports later today. (Read)

Hooyah!

I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Palantir puts in its first $1 billion quarter.

Speaking of which, is it too late to buy Palantir?

Not even close.

And for all the reasons we talk about regularly.

Wall Street’s still peddling the same tired fairy tales—valuation, earnings justification, growth premium, yadda yadda yadda.

Flip that around.

I’ve been doing this a long time and I’ve learned over the years that it’s almost always more profitable to take the other side when “everybody” knows something.

This is no different.

Don’t ask why should buy.

Ask yourself why you wouldn’t.

Can you make the case it’s a dog? … that growth is slowing? … that management is failing? … that customers hate its products? … that its diminishing relevance?

Didn’t think so.

Me neither.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The markets reward knowledge, not guesswork. If you’ve got this sorted and you’re getting the results you want, outstanding! If not and you’d like help finding the next Palantir, I’ll be here if you need me. It’s a short list, btw and the OBA Family has a head start. 😀

3 – Tesla’s $29B big bet on Musk

Tesla’s board just approved a new $29 billion stock grant for Unka Elon. (Read)

About time, imho.

Here’s what matters:

The 96 million restricted shares are part of a new “interim award” meant to replace the 2018 compensation package that was voided last year by a Delaware judge for being unfair to shareholders.

That old award? Valued at over $50 billion and the source of a multiyear legal soap opera that’s been hanging over Tesla like a bad reviewer whose niece didn’t get the lead.

Musk is appealing, but in the meantime, the board took matters into their own hands — and shareholders will likely be faaaaaaaaar better for it.

To be fair, he doesn’t get the shares for free.

Musk must pay $23.34 a share — the same price as the 2018 comp plan – to get his mitts on ‘em.

What’s more, the award is structured to boost his voting power over time effectively dictating that he’s got to earn the right to greater control, something Musk has said is critical to keeping his focus on Tesla’s future – especially as the robotics roadmap accelerates.

I agree.

Retaining him removes a big overhang and reintroduces clarity which, in turn, inevitably brings innovation, revenue and – yep – more profit potential over time.

MyPOV: You don’t hand someone 96 million shares unless you believe the company’s about to enter an entirely different league. The board clearly does. Me, too.

4 – Boeing can’t catch a break — or fix one either

Roughly 3,200 unionized Boeing defense workers just walked off the job after rejecting a new contract that included a 20% wage hike and a $5K bonus. (Read)

Hmm. 🤔

The strike targets fighter jet operations in St. Louis, and while there’s no immediate impact on commercial aircraft, any defense delays—particularly on programs like the F/A-18 Super Hornet—could ripple through military timelines.

Let’s not kid ourselves.

This is not an isolated headline. It’s the latest flare in what’s becoming a long string of labor unrest across industries in 2025—and for Boeing, it's just another log on an already raging fire.

Yes, the company recently posted its best delivery numbers since 2018 and yes, the market cheered. But I’m not buying the comeback narrative… literally or figuratively.

This is the same company still tangled in FAA restrictions, delayed certifications, and an internal culture its own CEO admits lost its way. Add in a $1.1B crash settlement, a deadly 787 incident, and a Qatar mega-order that feels more like diplomacy than durability… and the cracks start showing.

Yes, the stock has rallied ~58% off April’s lows, and yes, I’ve publicly kicked myself for not jumping in around $128 when the setup looked tempting. But investing isn’t just about bounce plays.

It’s about trust.

And Boeing still has a long way to go to earn mine back.

I’m wondering which windshield this “bug” hits next.

MyPOV: Labor strikes are rarely about just money. They’re about culture, leadership, and values. If Boeing wants to win back investors and workers alike, it’s going to have to prove it can build more than planes—it needs to rebuild its credibility and trust starting with the people who open its doors every morning.

As for strategy?

Trade Idea: If you’re tempted, I think long-dated LEAPs calls remain the smartest risk-contained way to play this—if you believe the turnaround will take hold. I’m personally still leaning toward puts, short, and avoid until the company shows real lift—not just headlines.

Remember: There’s a difference between recovery and reinvention.

5 – Why Berkshire may be in more trouble than meets the eye

What I am about to say is financial heresy.

Berkshire may be in far deeper trouble than meets the eye and shareholders had best pay attention.

Here’s my thinking:

Earnings are soft. Q2 operating income fell 4% YoY to $11.16B — mostly dragged down by insurance underwriting. Railroads, energy, and retail were fine, but not enough to offset the hit. The core business is… just coasting.
They’re still selling, not buying. Berkshire dumped $4.5B in equities in H1 2025 — the 11th straight quarter of net selling. Even with a 10% dip in their own shares, no buybacks. Translation: they’re not seeing value OR they simply don’t know what to buy because they’ve lost their way.
The cash mountain grows. $344.1B and counting. That’s not dry powder anymore — it’s dead weight. Buffett’s legendary patience is one thing, but this kind of inaction raises questions about vision, at least in my mind.
Kraft Heinz is back in the penalty box. A fresh $3.8B write-down. Two board seats lost. Spinoff chatter swirling. Even Buffett admits he overpaid. 🤦‍
Abel’s in the wings — but still silent. Greg Abel officially takes the reins in 2026. Right now? No bold moves, no new strategy. And that’s the rub: Berkshire’s biggest wins in recent years (like Apple) came from taking calculated swings. Without that… it’s ballast, not rocket fuel.

To be clear… Buffett is a titan. He’s changed how generations think about investing — including me. But you can’t play catch with someone who isn’t there.

Unless Abel picks it up quickly with fresh direction, conviction, and tech-savvy firepower, Berkshire risks becoming a case study in how legacy becomes inertia.

And that would be simply terrible to see.