☕️ Palantir – is it too late to buy?
Aug 05, 2025Howdy! 👋
Imagine that.
The markets came outta the gate green but quickly flipped red, something I warned explicitly about via Twitter last night. (Read)
So now what?
Headlines come and go but profit potential is a permanent fixture.
So, concentrate on that.
Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Palantir homers earnings
My exact words yesterday morning were, “I wouldn’t be surprised in the slightest if Palantir puts in its first $1 billion quarter” and that’s exactly what Team Karp put up when Palantir reported Q2 earnings yesterday. (Read)
- Achieved a Rule of 40 score of 94%
- Grew total customer count to 849 (+43% YoY)
- Logged 93% U.S. commercial revenue growth
- Raised full-year 2025 guidance
- Closed 157 deals worth $1 million or more
Many folks are wondering if it’s too late to buy, and my answer is, ‘no way.’
Moreover, history suggests that there are 10-15 “Palantirs” out there right now in various stages of maturity. Hopefully, you own at least a few of ‘em. If not, and you’d like to, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead® where I make it a priority to find ‘em long before the rest of the world catches on.
BTW, if you’re wondering what Palantir actually does, you’re not alone. Here’s a quick and dirty explanation I gave on FBN ahead of yesterday’s opening bell and Palantir’s earnings. (Watch)
2 – Pfizer, buy or sell?
Pfizer posted better-than-expected Q2 earnings and raised its full-year profit forecast thanks to strong sales from both Covid and non-Covid drugs, plus deep cost cuts. (Read)
- EPS came in at $0.78 vs. $0.58 expected.
- Revenue up 10% YoY to $14.65B.
- Covid vaccine and Paxlovid both crushed estimates.
The company now expects $7.7B in cost savings by 2027 and reaffirmed its $61B–$64B revenue forecast.
Great, right? 🤷🏻
Not so fast.
The Trump administration is turning up the heat on drug pricing and floating pharma-specific tariffs that could hammer margins as Pfizer tries to get its groove back.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Just because the storm has passed doesn’t mean the sea will calm.
3 - TSMC breach is a national security alarm
The world’s largest chipmaker says it’s uncovered “unauthorized activities” that may have exposed critical IP tied to its cutting-edge 2nm chip development. (Read)
Like that’s a surprise. 🤔
Authorities in Taiwan have arrested six people — former and current TSMC staff — suspected of stealing trade secrets tied to the company’s next-gen 2nm chip technology, which sits at the bleeding edge of global semiconductor manufacturing.
Don’t make the mistake of thinking this is just intellectual piracy.
This is a national security concern with global ramifications.
Sovereign AI, a term I coined in 2017 or was certainly among the very first to use, is a weapons-grade asset in a global chip war where digital secrets are worth more than oil.
You can bet Apple, Nvidia, and every other high-performance player that relies on TSMC’s manufacturing muscle will be watching this closely. Probably Tesla, too.
It’s not a mystery why the biggies are developing their own silicon.
Invest accordingly.
And if you want a little help sorting out what’s what, I’ll be here if you need me.
4 – Intel’s teething pains
Intel bet big on a new process – 18A – in an effort to restore/win new manufacturing deals and rebuild the edge it once enjoyed by producing high-end chips for years.
Reuters is reporting that only a small percentage of the new Panther Lake chips printed via the company’s new 18A process are good enough to make available to customers. (Read)
Ruh-roh.
Historically, this is not even remotely close to previous pre-launch “ramp up” periods and something that could crater margins for a long time to come.
I’ve avoided Intel but now am thinking putskies – put options - could be a good opportunistic bet (that prices decline).
5 – UnitedHealth bleeds out
I also warned you very specifically to steer clear of UnitedHealth Group (UNH) on 17 April 2025 saying that what’s happening is “a ginormous warning flare.”
Since then, shares have dropped -46.42%.
And as part of that, I flagged the warning signs when UnitedHealth pulled the ol’ “guidance? What guidance?” routine—just before the CEO bailed for “personal reasons.”
Let’s not forget.
UNH missed earnings for the first time since 2008, slashed guidance, blamed "unexpected medical costs" (mostly tied to Medicare Advantage), and remains under federal investigation for alleged billing fraud.
Talk about a glaring red, Vegas-sized neon sign flashing Trouble Ahead.
The markets are tough, often sniffing out trouble long before the headlines confirm it.
Companies can put up billions in profits – as UNH has done – but smoke is getting thicker – investigations, operational failures, lack of execution, leadership challenges – which tells me the markets are sensing something far more dangerous to your money.
I’ve learned over the years that you give companies in this sort of situation a wide berth because there’s no sense in being stupid with your money even if management seemingly is.
Oh, and dividend investors, beware!!!
Keith’s Investing Tip: Trust is an important and often overlooked stock ownership criterion, at least for me anyway. Re-rating a company doesn’t come easy so stick to companies without the proverbial baggage. You and your portfolio will be far happier and - dare I say it – likely profitable over time for doing so.
Bottom Line
There will be more profits created in the next 10 years than the last 50 combined. And an entirely new generation of millionaires (who understands this) is being printed right now.
Grab your share… or somebody else almost certainly will.
You got this – I promise!
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
Keith 😀
