☕️ Palantir just leveled up: Peter Thiel’s revenge
May 09, 2025Howdy 👋
Another day, another set of tariff announcements.
I hope you’re on board.
Much to the consternation of many who thought they were being smart by going to the sidelines in early April, the train is leaving the proverbial station.
The S&P 500 has tacked on 11.80% since putting in lows on April 7th and individual companies including many we talk about regularly have done considerably better… which is why we focus on ‘em.
The smartest folks in the room are still out there peddling their unique brand of schlock which has many wondering if the rally can continue.
I believe so.
To paraphrase one of my favourite rock and roll bands, Bachman-Turner Overdrive (BTO), you ain’t seen nothing yet.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Palantir is now one of the top 10 most valuable US tech companies
Haters wanted failure but Wall Street just served up $117.85 a share as I type.
And right on cue, here comes the valuation crowd. (Read)
Ironic, isn’t it.
They’ve been saying the same thing since Palantir DPO’d… it’s expensive, valuations are obscene, too high, unrealistic, astronomical… you get the idea.
Compared to what?
Trailing earnings based on outdated accounting methods created to measure physical goods and services not the digital world we live in today.
The markets are forward-looking.
Nvidia traded at 62X earnings in 2022 if memory serves, but 2025 actuals were 5X what analysts projected back then – making that “too expensive” multiple look like a bargain.
Wait till Palantir gets to $200 a share!
Imagine what they’ll say then, but I digress.
My only fear is that I don’t own enough shares.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Valuations are increasingly irrelevant for high tech, high return to scale companies for all the reasons we have talked about many times over in One Bar Ahead®. And the sooner you understand what this means for your money, the sooner your portfolio can thank you.
2 – Will “just” 80% bring China to the table?
U.S. President Donald Trump floated the idea that an 80% tariff on Chinese goods “seems right” earlier this morning ahead of scheduled U.S.-China trade talks in Switzerland where Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent will meet with Chinese officials including Vice Premier He Lifeng. (Read)
If you’re keeping score… that’s down from the 145% level that’s currently hitting many Chinese goods… but still 8X higher than the 10% baseline the U.K. just locked in.
Why would he do that?
Because President Trump wants to give China a way forward, or guanxi which loosely means “face” if you’re familiar with that concept.
Will it work?
That remains to be seen.
China’s optics are different; Xi will no doubt present this to his citizens as China is so strong that the US is caving before talks even start.
I could make the argument that buying a broadly based Chinese ETF like FXI might make for an interesting a potentially very profitable 12 months ahead.
My preference, though, is to stay with a Chinese company that’s already a global player and which has returned 77.82% over the past 12 months versus 9.64% from the S&P 500.
I think it’s just getting started too and I expect the outperformance to continue but that’s neither here nor there.
What I want you to focus on is investing because of China, not necessarily in China itself.
Keith’s Investing Tip: Smart money never waits for headlines to invest; it positions ahead of ‘em – aka… Keith’s Rule of the Back Page. People waiting for front page news tend to be a day late and a dollar short. Often quite literally.
3 – I am amazed Peloton still exists
Peloton just posted its third straight quarterly revenue decline, and Wall Street’s not buying the spin—literally or figuratively. (Read)
I’ve told you to avoid it for a loooooooonnnnnnnnnggggg time.
Since it IPO’d, in fact.
Revenue came in at $624 million, a touch above estimates but still down 13% year over year. That makes three in a row, despite a shiny new CEO and another reheated turnaround pitch.
Frankly, I’m amazed Peloton still exists. 🤷🏻
Like an old Soloflex, it’s on the cusp of being a very expensive laundry hanger for many. That or a garage sale special. Sigh.
Keith’s Investing Tip: This is exactly why we stick with world-class businesses making “must have” products and services rather than companies built on pandemic hype and hope. You can swap out the CEOs all you want and strike all the deals you want with hotel chains and fitness outlets—but if nobody wants the product, the ticker’s still headed downhill.
4 – Don’t bet against Unka Jensen
Back in April, the market was worried about Nvidia having a $5.5B charge tied to unsellable H20 processors and blocked export commitments to China. Shares dropped like a rookie in a zero-day options pit, and most people panicked.
I told you not to.
Why?
Because—as we said then—$5.5B is just 4.2% of Nvidia’s projected fiscal 2025 revenue. If that rattles you, you’re not an investor… you’re a speculator.
Fast forward to today: Nvidia’s not rolling over but instead recalibrating.
The company just notified Chinese clients it’s prepping a downgraded H20 chip for release in July, designed to navigate Washington’s AI export restrictions. It’ll have reduced memory and power but still keeps Nvidia in the fight—right where and when it matters most.
My POV: This is classic Huang. Tactical, resilient, and laser-focused on the long game. Betting against him today would be like betting against Apple founder the late Steve Jobs in ‘07.
Nvidia shares have returned 450.56% since I brought it to the OBAers’ attention compared to 41.19% from the SPY, a popular S&P 500 ETF… a ~11X performance advantage.
History suggests there are 10-15 “Nvidias” out there as I type. I’m already on the hunt for the next one and hope you are, too.
If you know how to find ‘em and which stocks to buy, excellent! And if you’d like some help finding winners, I’ll be here.
5 – Cargo crooks and the next $1 billion opportunity
Organized criminal networks are targeting U.S. freight routes with increasing sophistication—and cargo theft is exploding as a result.
We're talking strategic heists, deep-fake brokers, hacked platforms, and identity theft operations that now span over 30 countries. (Read)
Losses are approaching $1 billion a year with crooks using the same technology that was supposed to make the supply chain smarter.
Investable opportunity?
Vulnerabilities this big create profit pipelines for companies offering:
- End-to-end supply chain security
- Cybersecurity and AI-powered fraud detection
- Insurance and risk mitigation
- Hard asset tracking and geofencing tech
- Resilient third-party logistics (3PL) firms with in-house security stacks
Everything is an investing opportunity if you think outside the box.
Anyhoooooo… I’m researching a few candidates in this arena but haven’t settled on one just yet.
You?
Bottom Line
People have doubts about themselves, about the markets, about life.
That’s normal.
However, that’s also why I insist you MAKE it a great day.
Don't let anybody or anything stop you.
Not in life.
Certainly not in the markets.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong.
You got this,
Keith 😃
PS: If you're an OBAer, keep your eyes on your inbox, later this morning you’ll be getting this week’s AMAs and an update on a stock that’s flying under the radar for many but deserves a lot more attention. A bargain and a half to my way of thinking, words I don’t use lightly.
