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☕️ Palantir rocks it but drops anyway, here’s why

May 06, 2025

Howdy! 👋

All the major averages are red in early going as the entire world waits for trade deals and yet another Fed decision.

We’ve seen this playbook so many times.

Do NOT let the short-term noise scare you away from great companies.

And DO continue to lean in.

The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Palantir rocks it (again)

Palantir reported Q1 earnings yesterday. (Read)

Total revenue grew 39% YoY

U.S. commercial revenue grew 71% YoY

Rule of 40 increased to 83%

It closed a record 139 $1M+ deals

Raised FY25 guidance sharply across the board

Yet, Palantir is falling today on the heels of the after-hours “rug pull” that I explicitly told you yesterday was coming even if earnings were great. (See #2)

This confuses a lot of folks who don’t understand how the game is played in the big leagues.

Investors like us – yep, you and me - are buying a stock because we believe in it. Wall Street’s big money traders have one job and that’s to make as much money as fast as they can by separating you from yours.

In other words, you’re buying the future while they’re buying and selling (your) emotions.

Keep it stupid simple… remember that there are always sharks in the party pool so don’t be “the bait.”

Print this chart out and tape it to your mirror, your monitor or even your forehead if you must.

My price target remains $200 in the next 12-24 months.

Keith’s Investing Tip: It’s hard not to let short-term action bother you but that is EXACTLY what you want to do if you’re going to be a successful investor. Not for nothing, but I struggled to learn that too, so I understand how hard it is to learn the lesson. You got this – I promise!

OBAers: Be sure to check your email immediately regarding Palantir – it’s time to take action. Hooyah!

2 – DoorDash a platform in disguise?

DoorDash announced two separate acquisitions: British food delivery giant Deliveroo for $3.8 billion, and U.S.-based restaurant tech company SevenRooms (terms undisclosed). (Read)

What’s the play here?

Seems to me that DoorDash is laying down digital rails for local commerce, the same way Amazon did for global goods.

Deliveroo adds 7M users and a major European footprint. SevenRooms gives DoorDash in-store tech firepower—CRM, loyalty, ops. Together? This isn’t about food. It’s about owning the restaurant lifecycle: online, offline, dine-in, delivery—every channel, every touchpoint.

Should you buy it?

Tempting but this is “n+1” at a time when “zero to 1” is the better play, imho.

That’s why I prefer another choice that’s already well on its way to mastering what I call the “full-stack” strategy. Shares are down about 5% so far but that’s okay – I expect it to double if my read on the situation is correct.

3 – Ford, now we have something to blame

Ford is dangerously close to becoming the Intel of automotives - bloated, outclassed, and clinging to narratives Wall Street’s happy to sell you.

Ford’s decision to yank its 2025 guidance isn’t about tariffs—it’s about cover. (Read)

Management attributed a potential $2.5B tariff impact to Trump’s trade proposals, noting they expect to offset about $1B but said the remainder introduces too much uncertainty to maintain current guidance.

The truth is that Ford was already getting squeezed by superior Chinese EVs, Tesla, bloated legacy costs, and a margin structure that doesn’t hold up in a high-stakes, protectionist environment.

Ford says it could’ve done $7–$8.5B in EBIT without the tariffs. Translation: “We were going to miss, so now we have something to blame.”

Meanwhile, the company is halting exports, scrambling supply lines, and hoping the White House changes its mind.

That’s not leadership—it’s damage control.

I want ‘em to do well, but let’s be honest… I’m not going to waste my time or money under the circumstances. There are a lot better choices out there.

Two of my faves, for instance, have returned 452.28% and 739.97% over the past 5 years compared to 165.16% from Ford. That’s enough to turn $1,000 into $5,522.80 and $8,399.70 respectively versus $2,651.60 from Ford over the same time frame.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Too many investors “collect” stocks and that’s fine if it’s what you want to do. I’d rather focus on winning. Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control – and the companies that blame the dog for eating their homework.

If you know how to distinguish between companies like Ford and others that may really truly have their foot on the “gas pedal” so to speak, fantastic! If not and you’d like some help, I’ll be here.

4 – Currency moves faster than politicians every time

The TWD just pulled a 1981-style stunt—+9% in two days, then -3%.

That’s not FX noise but a signal.

Exporters dumped USD.

Insurers hedged.

But whispers say the real driver is a silent currency realignment tied to U.S. trade talks.

Officials deny it but traders don’t.

And TSMC?

Down 2% on cue.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Currency moves don’t lie but politicians often do.

Actionable idea: Look at inverse Taiwan ETFs (like YANG) or short-duration puts on FXI/TSM if volatility picks up.

5 – The House of Mouse

Disney has a lot going for it and a lot that’s well, not.

It’s been a long time favorite for many but long gone from my “buy list”.

The key will be streaming which I think will be growing faster than the bottom line.

I could make the case for buying shares if margins expand and there’s a sense that management knows how to keep that going as the economy tightens up.

But probably won’t.