☕ Palantir, the institutions know what’s coming, do you? 🤷‍♂️

Howdy! 👋 

The S&P has gone right about nowhere this morning in the early going. I’d love to see it close higher and on a strong note but that may not be in the cards ahead of tech earnings. 

The big money is resetting. 

They know that tech is gonna rock but they also know that the investing public is increasingly less likely to put up with the shenanigans, so they’ve got to find a new way to fleece ‘em… err, ply their trade. 🤦‍ 

Stay focused. 

The more you understand the path YOU are taking – meaning the stocks you buy, the strategies and tactics you use – the harder you make it for Wall Street’s Merry Marauders to separate you from your money with short-term, earnings related volatility and games. 

Investing isn’t a competition like most think. 

It’s a journey best taken one smart move at a time over time. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Palantir, the institutions know what’s coming, do you? 

I have told you for a long time that – if you want to be successful – that it’s important to do what Wall Street does, not what it says. 

Well, guess what “they” have been doing? 

Institutional ownership has now pushed past 51%, and it’s rising.  

Do YOU own enough shares? 

Oh and before I forget, I saw that JPM CEO Jamie Dimon was at the Palantir DC office yesterday. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I place a premium on smart CEOs as part of the investing process because the world’s smartest don’t take the time to tour companies they think are hype. Neither do the world’s smartest investors. 

$200.  

2 – TSMC puts in record numbers and a new tariff deal  

The U.S. and Taiwan have just struck a trade deal that cuts tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15% in exchange for a $250 billion push to expand semiconductor investment in the U.S. (Read) 

Cool beans. 

TSMC posted another record quarter, with profit up 35% and revenue topping expectations as AI chip demand stayed red hot. (Read) 

This marks eight consecutive quarters of year-on-year profit growth. Advanced chips at 7-nanometres and below made up 77% of wafer revenue, while high-performance computing — think AI servers — accounted for more than half of total sales. 

Demand is now reshaping spending plans, something the spreadsheet gang still doesn’t grasp. 

Management said it expects capital expenditure over the next three years to run well above $100 billion, with CFO Wendell Huang pointing to the company’s “strong conviction in the AI mega-trend” as the reason investment is being accelerated in both Taiwan and the U.S. (Read) 

Should you buy it? 

No doubt It’s one of the most important companies on the planet and my hat is off to everyone who owns shares.  

Personally, I prefer exposure in a few other areas of the data ecosystem that are a better fit given my POV on what’s happening. It may not be perfect, but it works for me. 

And the One Bar Ahead® Family who tell me that what they’ve learned and experienced along the way has been and continues to be a game changer. 

If you’re covered, excellent. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Most investors are still applying the same tired old analysis but expecting different results which makes no sense. If you want to be a better, more consistent, and effective investor, then be one doggonit! 

3 – From Bezos to back of the line, Amazon’s $475M reality check 

I have a cardinal rule. 

All investments involve risk, but not all risks are worth the investment.  

Seems Amazon is learning the hard way. 🤦‍♂️ 

The company took a $475 million stake in Saks that was meant to open the door to luxury retail and physical commerce but which is now “effectively worthless” as Saks slides into bankruptcy. (Read) 

Amazon says Saks burned through hundreds of millions in under a year and is now restructuring debt in a way that pushes Amazon to the back of the repayment line and the company is grousing about it.  

Heaven forbid… even billion-dollar balance sheets bleed like the rest of us when we make mistakes.  

I don’t think it moves Amazon’s needle because they can probably absorb the loss with interest “on the checking account” so to speak, but it does raise questions about how management really thinks. 

Jassy is no Bezos. 

4 – More evidence money is like water (and flows to where it’s treated best) 

Mitsubishi agreed to buy $7.5bn of U.S. shale gas and pipeline assets, citing rising power demand from data centres, manufacturing, and LNG exports. (Read) 

Reinforce what I have been telling you for over a year now. 

Nuclear may be great for AI data centers… someday… but the more immediate path to profits for smart investors is natural gas. 

I’ve got two choices in mind, both of which are rocking rock solid dividends and a positive TSY (True Shareholder Yield).  

Most investors (and professionals for that matter) focus solely on yield, but my research shows that companies with higher and positive TSY growth are the better bet, especially when it comes to income. Which is why I tend to buy ‘em. 

I hope you’re tracking in your own portfolio but, if not, you know where to find me. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People get so focused on the forest that they miss the trees, especially when it comes to the role income investments play over time. Contrary to what many believe, dividend investing doesn’t have to be like watching paint dry. 

5 – Tesla - It’s great to have company 

I wrote to you about Tesla yesterday and my remarks struck a chord. 

Seems I’m not alone. 

Unka Ron has made $8B on Tesla since 2014 and personally holds 40% of his portfolio in Tesla. (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest.™ 

Bottom Line 

People want everything except accountability. 

Like it or not, most investors fail because they lack a proven long-term strategy needed to overcome short-term noise. 

Be accountable. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀