☕ Palantir: The one number that matters most when the company reports

Howdy! 👋 

The S&P 500 has turned positive as I write. The Nasdaq and Dow, too. 

I hope you bought last week’s dip. 

What happens next could be fabulous… no scratch that… will be fabulous. 

How do I know? 

Simple. 

More importantly, 33% of the S&P 500 have now reported earnings with 65% of ‘em reporting positive revenue surprises and 75% reporting positive EPS surprises. (Read) 

In plain English, this means that 65% of companies that have reported have higher revenue than expected and 75% are earning more money than expected. 

Ergo and once again… 

Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism every time over time. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Palantir & where to invest for safety now 

The super-sharp Stuart Varney kindly asked me back this morning and wanted to discuss two things: Palantir which reports later today and where to invest for safety now.  

Hint: it’s not where you might think! (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The best time to buy great stocks is when nobody else wants ‘em. And the best time to sell (anything) is when people can’t resist buying. 

2 – Palantir: The one number that matters most when the company reports 

Palantir reports after today’s closing bell. You can watch and listen to the call here. (Read) 

There’s really one number that matters. 

Palantir’s Rule of 40 Score. 

Anything over 40 is excellent. Palantir’s closed 2025 at roughly 114, nearly 3X higher which tells me that there’s still plenty of sustainable, real and potentially very profitable growth ahead. 

I expect Palantir to crush earnings. 

Now for the fun part. 

Trade idea: Palantir’s stock has been beaten down mercilessly in recent weeks, which tells me the big money could be orchestrating a “rip” rather than a “rug pull” as has been the case with other tech names recently. Call options, LEAPs and just a few extra shares could all work nicely. 

Something else. 

Palantir has returned 1,484.53% since it went public. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested back then into $15,845.26 today… along with several opportunities to capture 100%+ and simultaneously reduce risk using a specialized tactic I pioneered more than two decades ago called the FreeTrade that’s now been widely copied by the financial newsletter community. 

Could Palantir sell off further? 

Absolutely.  

That’s how the markets work and why tactics matter more than ever. 

History shows very clearly that there are 10-15 “Palantirs” out there in various stages of maturity. So it’s important you identify ‘em early and latch on when you do… something the One Bar Ahead® Family understands very, very well. 

And finally, I’ve heard from scores of folks about how they’ll buy on a pullback, a downturn, a correction… whatever they want to call it… only watch as they get cold feet yet again and risk missing the next run. 

What’s happening now with Palantir is the biggest event of the year, imho. 

3 – Gold (and silver): I hate to say I told you so, but I did 

As much as I hate the old expression, I told you so, I did. 

Explicitly. 

Last Tuesday… ‘I think we’re very close to a sharp reversal.’ (See #5) 

And in return? 

I got a blizzard of emails from people telling me that I didn’t know what I was talking about, how I was wrong and so on. Some were quite nasty as you can probably imagine which is terribly unfortunate. 

Good thing I’ve got a thick skin. 

Gold and metals are still a “broken”, crowded and far more dangerous trade than many investors understand.  

You can make the argument it’ll rebound, and many are. Good on you if you want to talk “macro” econ, a new Fed chair and so on. 

I’d simply rather own the main event – the world’s best companies including those names I’ve just highlighted – than the circus clown car. It’s not perfect, but it works for me. 

Moreover, I wish you every success in the world if you want to own gold. Just do it smartly and pay very, very careful attention to controlling risk.  

There isn’t a fundamental argument in the world that’ll save your bacon if the institutions flip sides and do some more deleveraging. 💯

4 – When criminals love tech, pay attention because profits follow 

I was enjoying my cup of coffee this morning and saw a new report, which made me deeply uncomfortable. 

Chainalysis estimates that Chinese-language money-laundering networks moved $16.1 billion in illicit funds through cryptocurrency last year. (Read) 

So? 

Two things come to mind. 

First, that’s ~20% of all crypto-related crime globally and roughly $44 million per day being moved by large, professional organizations, not small-time actors. 

And second, criminals are always early adopters so it’s logical that they tend to gather where money moves fastest, where oversight is weakest, and where transactions are hardest to freeze. 

My experience is that’s always an investable opportunity. 

Two actually, in this case. 

MyPOV is that digital currency is inevitable which means that a) cryptosecurity and b) confidence builders are the real play here. Not crypto itself, contrary to what many believe. 

One of my faves has returned ~160% since I added it to the OBA Portfolio compared to a respectable ~65% from the S&P 500. That's the difference between turning $1,000 into $2,600 versus $1,650. Another more recently added choice taps into crypto itself but adds an always welcome income kicker. 

Be absolutely positive you understand the distinction in your own portfolio. Or, find somebody who does to help you. 

5 – House of Mouse is still dead money 

It’s tough to see Disney struggle; I recommended it to investors for years. 

Now, I won’t. 

What’s more, it’s even tougher to tell you that I think the better investment is to avoid shares like the plague and to buy putskies – a bet that the stock declines.   

Shares are down nearly 50% from a post-Covid peak and they’re down again this morning despite a Q1 beat. (Read) 

I don’t see a path forward. 

• Taking a family of 4 to the park will set you back $2,000 or more for a weekend trip 
• CEO Bob Iger is departing for what seems like the 35th time 
• The brand portfolio has been obliterated 
• Consumer loyalty and trust are burnt to a crisp 

Sigh. 🤦‍♂️ 

Bottom Line 

The most important investment skill you can learn is to calculate the future cost of decisions you make today.  

Now, let’s MAKE it a great day and start to the week.  

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀