☕️ S&P 500 - what history says happens next and what to do with your money now

Howdy 👋 

The markets are giving back a skosh as I type which is absolutely consistent with the short-term trading mindset that is constantly at odds with long-term investing. 

That’s not a problem like most think. 

It’s a pattern. 

And opportunity. 

Remember… 

Volatility isn’t the enemy; it’s the price of admission. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – The S&P 500 is up nearly 20% in 25 days – what history suggests happens next 

Investors can’t help themselves. 

Every time the markets run sharply higher, I start hearing the chorus… when should I sell??!! 

This may surprise you. 

To a point I have made many times over… big upside moves often create still more big upside moves, particularly if they’re happening at critical points in market history when there are major changes in fiscal policy, liquidity and regulation. 

My research shows that any time the S&P 500 pops by more than 15%, the median gain 12 months later is ~20%. 

Will there be selling in the meantime? 

Absolutely. 

The markets require buying AND selling to build the base needed for another leg higher. That’s why I encourage investors to focus on what they can control – like buying great companies, position sizing, margins etc – rather than worrying about what they can’t. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The markets move fast, but great investors move first. So be one! 

2 – Dick’s is buying Foot Locker, ummm 

The story is being billed as an attempt by the former to lock up Nike’s market by taking the latter outta the game. (Read) 

The thinking is that the combined company will have a competitive edge in Nike’s sneaker market with younger buyers while also providing Dick’s international access and along with younger, more urban consumers, a market they’ve not been able to crack. 

I see another angle. 

Moves like this aren’t always the growth plays they’re sold as—they’re often survival tactics. Dick’s is down –10.41% over the past 12 months but Foot Locker – which began an aggressive turnaround effort on April 16th and has tacked on ~115.82% since then. 

Rising costs, inventory drag and shrinking foot traffic mean both companies are under pressure. This deal smells less like expansion and more like consolidation to stop the bleeding.  

A defensive crouch, not an offensive strike. 

Nike, for its part, is under tremendous pressure, too. Margins are thinning, competition is rising, and the brand’s once-bulletproof appeal with younger consumers isn’t as certain as it used to be. The stock is down –32.16% over the 12 past months. 

So, the "prize" Dick’s is banking on may not deliver the competitive edge they’re hoping for—at least not without a serious turnaround. 

Short or avoid all three.  

Putskies, especially on Foot Locker which has popped nearly 83% today as I type. 🤦‍️ 

3 – Powell’s masterclass in hindsight 

Fed Chair Jerome Powell says we "may be entering a period of more frequent, and potentially more persistent, supply shocks."  (Read) 

Thanks, buddy. 

Took you, what, four years and a shredded middle class to figure that one out? 

This really chaffs my jets and forgive me for getting up on my soapbox for a moment. 

Powell constantly acts like this is some brand-new revelation.  

It’s not.  

Anybody buying groceries, running a small business, or filling up a truck knew this ages ago.  

Meanwhile, he's still trying to balance policy like it’s 1895. 

MyPOV: Anybody betting on Powell is making a big mistake and one that ought to be self-evident. Don’t bet on Powell to lead—bet on the markets to adapt faster than he can pivot.  

My two cents is that you ought to be thinking about companies with plenty of pricing power, low betas and the capacity to protect margins. 

Hopefully, you’ve got a few of ‘em in your portfolio but if not and you’d like some help, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead®. 

4 – Boeing gets a bailout in disguise 

Qatar just became Boeing’s white knight when Boeing landed a record-breaking order from Qatar Airways: up to 210 widebody jets, plus 400 engines from GE Aerospace.  

The deal was inked with much fanfare—US President Donald Trump, the emir of Qatar, Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani, big smiles all around—and is being spun as a “historic” win for U.S. manufacturing and diplomacy. (Read) 

Scratch the surface, though, and this isn’t just about airplanes.  

It’s about optics, politics, and buying goodwill. 

The timing isn’t accidental.  

Boeing’s been limping through one of the worst stretches in corporate history—safety failures, brutal cash burn, production nightmares, and a bruised reputation. This deal props up confidence on paper, but whether those planes actually fly—or those orders stick—is another story. 

Investors are cheering and I’m kicking myself. 

Why? 

Dish up the humble pie. 

I mentioned a while back that I thought Boeing would be interesting under $150 but didn’t believe my own eyes when it tagged a low of $128.88 per share in early April. And, in fact, I forgot to set the price alert that would have reminded me – doh! 🙄 

Translation…  I’ve missed the ~60.92% run up since. 

Is it too late to buy Boeing? 

Likely not, but the question to think about is how much upside there is and that comes down to how many more Qatar-like orders are out there that have yet to be inked.  

I think LEAPs calls could be a better option – pun absolutely intended – but that’s just me. 

On a related note, I’ve got to imagine China is seething because this order effectively locks out the C919 it was hoping to feed into Middle Eastern fleets where that nation’s charm offensive continues. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Mistakes are tuition, even for me. 

5 – HBO Max is back… again. 

Warner Bros. Discovery is re-renaming its streaming service to “HBO Max” this summer, walking back the “Max” branding it introduced just two years ago. (Read) 

You can’t make this stuff up. 

The goal?  

Refocus on “quality over quantity” and remind viewers that HBO still stands for prestige storytelling — not just another bucket of reality shows and reruns. 

Personally, I can’t recall the last time I watched HBO but that’s just me. I’m also old enough to remember when hotels trumpeted the fact that they offered “free HBO” as a marketing gimmick. 

Streaming is a brutal business.  

Subscriber growth is slowing, content is expensive, and even the big dogs are rethinking their game plans.  

The industry is rapidly shifting to bundling, ad-supported tiers, and profitability over growth-at-all-costs. All of which made investors leave cable in droves when that industry did much the same thing. 

It’s only a matter of time. 

Meanwhile, there are bigger fish to fry. 

Like oh-I dunno, Netflix, for example. 

Hmmm. 

Bottom Line 

Many investors get bound up in the minutia, and that’s a mistake that almost always works against ‘em. 

When in doubt, zoom out! 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

Meanwhile, I’m with you every step of the way. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀