☕ Should you buy Apple, Tesla, Microsoft & Meta ahead of earnings?

Howdy! 👋 

And we’re off. 

The markets are split ahead of big tech earnings – meaning that the Dow is down while the S&P 500 and Nazzy are up. 

That’s normal on days like today. 

The official story is that big traders are “awaiting” big tech earnings. 

Not true. 

They’re resetting risk ahead of earnings. 

Big difference. 

• Have a plan. 
• Set goals. 
• Execute. 
• Adjust. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – What the Bubble Babblers get wrong about “AI spend” 

Four of the biggest names in the game report this week: Meta, Microsoft, Apple, and Tesla. ALL are shelling out billions on AI. (Read) 

The Bubble Babblers are sure to go on about “circular investing” and a lack of monetization but, frankly, what they don’t realize is that doing so inadvertently demonstrates their deliberate or unknowing ignorance about how the markets really work, modern accounting rules and corporate structure. 

What you want to pay attention to is the vision each company lays out. 

In other words, what do they plan to spend on and when. 

Analysts are going to focus on when those things turn profitable, a statement that sounds great but the answer to which they can’t grasp because they’ve never worked a day in big tech. 

CEOs, on the other hand, know two things: 

1. They can’t build fast enough to satisfy demand (basic Econ101); and, 
2. Return to Scale is already baked in. 

Now, you do too. 

It’s not about the “spend” and never has been. 

Every one of these companies can change a few lines of code and make billions… if they have the right stack in place. Which is why they’re building like crazy. 

Invest accordingly. 

This comes down to something called Return on Scale, a key metric I use when selecting stocks I want to buy. The OBA Family, of course, knows all about it which is neither here nor there. 

I want to encourage you to make that a part of your investing process. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

2 – Avoid like the plague, but UNH catches it anyway 

I told you a while back that UNH and other health insurance companies were a no-go.  (See #5). 

Avoid ‘em like the plague, I said. 

Seems that I might have been on to something. 

CNBC is reporting that shares are down 20% after US President Donald Trump proposed keeping Medicare rates flat. (Read) 

I think they could fall a lot farther. 

Ouch! 

3 – Should you buy Apple, Tesla, Microsoft and Meta ahead of earnings? 

Everybody’s asking… 

 “Should I buy <<<insert your favourite stock name here>>> ahead of earnings?”  

Respectfully, that’s the wrong question. And no, it doesn’t matter what stock you’re talking about. 

Think about it. 

What you’re really asking is whether or not you can outguess Wall Street’s Merry Marauders and their highly quantified trading desks for the next 24 hours. 

You may as well take on a Grand Master in Chess. 🤷‍ 

Sure, you could get lucky, but I’d rather be profitable. 

Call me crazy, I know. 

Flip that around. 

What you want to be thinking about – and I submit you should be thinking about – is what it’s costing you if you stay on the sidelines. 

There have been ~180 earnings announcements since Apple went public (if my math is right and I’ve had enough coffee) and the stock has returned ~261,000%. That’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested back then into $2,611,000 today. 

See my point? 

Tesla endured all sorts of volatility and ~61 earnings announcements since going public. Yet the stock has returned ~27,277.99% since then anyway. Same logic… that’s enough to turn every $1,000 invested at the time into $273,779.90 today. 

If you’re a trader, fine.  

Be a trader; the volatility from a post-earnings “rug pull” is tailor-made for quick profit potential. And you can set that up ahead of time with any number of tactics. 

But if you’re an investor, don’t kid yourself. 

I wish they’d do away with the entire earnings season circus, honestly. But that’s a story for another time. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.  

You know what to do and if ya don’t, you might enjoy One Bar Ahead® because it can help you sort the wheat from the chaff. People tell me regularly that what they’ve learned has helped them rewrite their financial story and find real financial freedom. 

4 – Boeing – Was I wrong and would I buy it now? 

Boeing just reported a massive beat. And CEO Kelly Ortberg says “there’s a lot to be optimistic about.” (Read) 

I’ve said for a long time that Boeing was a bug in search of a windshield — and that Ortberg might be the exec capable of finally fixing it. 

Maybe, even proving me wrong. 

I still won’t buy Boeing for growth because the FAA has yet to approve the 737-7, the 737-10, and higher MAX production rates. Until that changes, the upside seems capped, imho. 

Even so, I would consider buying Boeing ahead of a dividend restart. 

If Ortberg is right — and I think he might be — reinstating dividends won’t be dramatic, but it will matter because even a modest payout changes how institutions frame the stock. 

MyPOV: Boeing is one of those stocks where it may be wise to think small equity exposure or longer-dated calls positioned for a dividend headline — not certification miracles. 

5 – The Fed: from Market Master to Sideshow Bob 

The Fed meets this week. (Read) 

Yawn. 

Agenda items include: 

• Watching data they didn’t predict 
• Explaining why that’s not their fault 
• Reassuring markets they still matter 

The media is already warning that most Wall Street economists now expect just two modest rate cuts this year - and none next year - even with a new Fed chair likely to be named by U.S. President Trump.  

What’s the old expression? 

All show and no go. 

Sad. 

The Fed was once almighty but now it’s little more than a sideshow. Turn off the volume when the next presser starts. I think it’s a great substitute for Animal Planet. 🤦‍ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Rates are for traders; profits are for investors. Ignore the jawboning and the politicizing. Stick to great companies that can succeed despite the Fed’s next follies. And they ARE out there putting up big numbers! 

I love where the markets are going next. 

You? 

Bottom Line 

You attract the energy you give off so invest in optimism and attract profits.  

Good vibes and positivity are contagious. 

Now, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀