☕️ Should you buy big tech ahead of earnings?

Howdy! 👋 

It’s the biggest week of earnings season and, frankly, I think probably all year. 

Roughly 41% of the S&P 500 reports this week, including 5 of the Magnificent 7 — with Meta, Microsoft, Alphabet, Amazon and Apple all on deck. 

I can’t wait and trust you share the same thinking. 

So many investors are frozen in fear because they’re waiting for the other “shoe to drop” or whatever that expression is… but you and I both know that the path to profits is dominated by those who lean in when it counts. 

I hope you have done just that. 

We’ve certainly talked about enough. (Watch) 

In fact, I’ve been all but a broken record on this if nothing but consistent despite being widely ridiculed, chastised and bullied by all sorts of finger-wagging, looking down their nose at me members of the high-pinky club. Good thing I have a thick skin and know my history just like you do! 💯 

So where do we go from here? 

Technically speaking, I think there’s a good case for a short-term rug pull as we go into tech earnings this week. I don’t know which stock’ll cause it, but AMD and NVDA could be likely “starters” given the run they’ve had lately and the amount of leverage being applied to both. A breakdown in peace talks would also do it. 

Btw, and if you’re a member of the OBA Family and attended the recent Options Boot Camp, this – before it happens - is a great opportunity for covered calls to capture a few extra bucks and/or trim profits. But that’s a story for another time. 

As for what’s next, I had a wonderful conversation with the fabulous Maria Bartiromo this weekend talking about just that… including whether to buy tech before or after earnings, where I see opportunity beyond big tech and why my expectations for the Fed are lower than a limbo bar at a roller rink. (Watch) 

I wish Powell would simply head on out gracefully, but that’s just me. 

The man talks a lot but communicates very little and his idea of being “data dependent” is looking more like an excuse for not having a strategy. 

And yes – before you watch – I know the sound in this interview is less than optimal shall we say. So please go easy on me if you can… I was in a temporary space that had not been sound engineered; we did what we could to reduce the booming/echo. 

Here are a few other things I’m watching today: 

1 – Earnings season 84, naysayers 0 

Roughly 28% of S&P 500 companies have already reported — and the numbers are beyond good. Some 84% have delivered positive EPS surprises and 81% have beaten on revenue. The blended growth rate sits at 15.1%, but with big tech still to come and doing what big tech does, I wouldn't be surprised to see this season top 15–20% by the time the dust settles. It was 13% or so coming in. The naysayers are, of course, having a meltdown. Let ‘em. The world’s best companies are printing money and so are the investors who own ‘em – including, I hope, you if you’re reading along.  

2 – China says "不" to Meta's $2B Manus deal 

Beijing just blocked Meta's $2 billion bid to acquire AI agent startup Manus — and this one has teeth. In the AI arms race, China now has its own version of the US “no-no” entity list. Except theirs works retroactively. That's not a regulatory footnote, btw. The battlefield just got bigger, and the rules just got murkier. China knows exactly what it’s doing and so do smart investors on this side of the Pacific. 

3 – Musk vs. Altman goes to court — and this one's for keeps 

Jury selection starts today in Oakland, CA — a hop, skip, and a jump from OpenAI's San Francisco HQ. Elon Musk (Tesla, X, SpaceX, xAI) and Sam Altman (OpenAI), along with Greg Brockman (OpenAI co-founder) and Satya Nadella (Microsoft), are all on the witness list. The stakes couldn't be higher — this is essentially a fight over who controls the future of AI and whether OpenAI's pivot from nonprofit to for-profit was legal. I wrote about why this matters for investors 17 days ago – See #4 - worth a read if you missed it. 

Trade Idea: Any short-term selloff or rug pull could be an ideal time to Sell Cash Secured Puts or use LowBall Orders -two of my fave high probability tactics. 

4 – GM will likely kick Ford's asteroids again — and Stellantis, too 

GM reports tomorrow and I expect another strong quarter. Management has been executing while Ford continues throwing things at the wall to see what sticks and Stellantis is still digging out from a serious hole. Watch GM's EV margin trajectory, any update on Cruise, and whether guidance gets bumped. If it does, don't be surprised to see the stock move… just not a lot. 🤦‍ 

I’d rather own something else but that’s just me. 

5 – Shell makes a big bet on oil's staying power 

Shell is buying Canada's ARC Resources in a $16.4 billion deal that will meaningfully boost long-term oil and gas production. Management says it'll generate double-digit returns and accelerate free cash flow from 2027 on. I'll take them at their word — for now. Shell has lagged competitors, including my personal favorite in the space, but this is the kind of move that tells you something about where serious money thinks energy is headed. Hope you’re as serious as I am.  

On a related note about where the serious money is heading, I will be sharing new research and a new recommendation on Friday when we publish the May issue of One Bar Ahead®. The company has pulled back substantially at a time when I think there are several potentially amazing catalysts on deck including a potential split that could put some serious wind in the ol’ sails. 

Bottom Line 

Things are calm at the moment but, mark my words may very well get spicy. 

No matter how that happens or what starts the rug pull if there is one – it is designed to panic short-term thinkers and reward patient, disciplined investors. Know who YOU are… lest the markets figure that out when you least expect ‘em to. 

Chaos creates opportunity – be ready! 

As always, MAKE it a great day and start the week strong.  

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀