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☕ Shutdown’s over, the next big market mover

Nov 13, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Stocks are in the red this morning as the government reopens.

Good.

Opportunity rarely knocks twice.

Take the risk or lose the chance.

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Shutdown’s over, so why no rally… really?

U.S. President Donald Trump has signed the bill to reopen the federal government after a 43-day shutdown — the longest in U.S. history. (Read)

Many folks were expecting a rally but that’s not happening.

Yet.

Why not?

That’s the interesting part.

There’s still too much risk in the system – meaning that traders are more concerned with what could go wrong than all that could go right. That flips the switch from buy the dip to sell the rip every time.

Stay focused.

Patience pays when fear is high.

There are still some heavy hitters on deck including Nvidia, CrowdStrike, Oracle, Broadcom… any one of which could light a fire under things and reignite the upside.

Keith’s Investing Tip: The markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. Every day without a rally means something’s on “sale.” 💯

BTW, and in case you missed it, I spoke about that – how to invest in a market that scares you – with my friend and colleague, Scott ”the Cow Guy” Shellady recently. (Watch)

2 – Joby’s new hybrid bird flew faster than Congress can approve a budget

Joby Aviation has completed the first test flight of its new hybrid military aircraft — just three months after teaming up with defense contractor L3Harris. (Read)

I have mixed feelings.

War, terrorism, and ugliness remain growth industries, unfortunately.

Washington is pouring billions into autonomous systems, AI-enabled aircraft, and next-gen mobility because the battlefield is changing faster than traditional contractors can keep up. Conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East have repeatedly shown that the winners are the ones who can iterate, adapt, and deploy quickly.

That’s the real story here and one that most investors continue to miss.

Whether it’s Joby, Archer, Aurora, or names we haven’t even heard of yet, the companies that can deliver dual-use technology — military first, commercial next — are going to have an enormous advantage as autonomy goes mainstream.

It’s all converging.

One of my faves, has returned 203.64% over the past 5 years, more than double the (fabulous) 91.76% from the S&P 500.

Hopefully you’ve got this covered in your own investing or are at least thinking along similar lines. If you’d like some help, you know where to find me.

3 – The Magic Kingdom still has a TV problem

Disney reported earnings and the headline numbers looked fine at first glance: (Read)

Streaming profits up 39% to $352 million

Disney+ added 3.8 million new subs, bringing the total to 131.6 million

Hulu at 64.1 million subs

Experiences (parks, resorts, cruises) revenue up 6%

Operating income up 13% in the same segment

EPS of $1.11 vs. $1.05 expected

Net income doubled from last year

So what?

Wall Street yawned and hit “Sell.”

Disney shares are getting smacked today — because once again the good news got steamrolled by the same old, same old: cable, linear TV, and a theatrical slate that couldn’t fight its way out of a paper bag.

Linear profits fell 21%, advertising slipped (including a $40M political ad shortfall), ESPN was flat, and the entire entertainment division saw revenue fall 6%. Oh, and Disney is still fighting YouTube TV in a carriage dispute like it’s 2009.

Streaming is improving, parks are packed, cruises are selling out… and none of it matters because the TV business is still rotting from the inside out.

This is the problem with the House of Mouse: the floorboards are giving way faster than management can hammer down new ones.

Yes, management is “doing things.”

A 50% dividend hike, double the buybacks, an ESPN app, bundles out the wazoo — all lovingly wrapped in corporate optimism.

But the deeper issue remains unchanged:

Theme parks cost a fortune.

Brand loyalty isn’t what it used to be.

And the content pipeline is running on fumes.

Could Disney turn it around?

Sure — anything is technically possible.

But should you bet on it?

I’m not.

And, in fact, I have repeatedly told you to avoid it and buy putskies – a bet that the stock declines.

I’d urge you to keep Disney on a really short leash if you own it.

Or, play the stock by “pairing” it against Netflix – meaning that you simultaneously short DIS but buy NFLX. That continues to work out nicely.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing isn’t just about “hot stocks.” Sometimes what you don’t buy is every bit as important as what you do. 🤷🏻‍️

And again, if you’re tired of fighting for Wall Street’s table scraps and you’d appreciate some help in this department, OBAers tell me they’re thrilled with the One Bar Ahead® Model Portfolio. If you’re a ticker tourist or quick buck artist, probably not.

Just sayin.’

4 – Burry: can’t stand the heat in the kitchen?

Well, what d’ya know.

Michael Burry has “deregistered” Scion Asset Management, meaning the fund no longer has to file 13Fs or disclose positions.

Why and why now?

Officially the story is that he is moving on to much better things, a comment he noted via X yesterday as reported by CNBC. (Read)

To call me skeptical could just be the understatement of the year.

I think there’s a) more to the story and b) it’s entirely likely that he simply doesn’t want the legal scrutiny that could be building given his latest shenanigans.

People see someone who called the “top” but I see a man walking away from the field much the same way a child picks up his or her toys in the sandbox when the adults say it’s time to go home.

Hmmm.

5 – Great, now you can get “surge priced” in the mountains, too 🤦‍

Uber just rolled out  Uber Ski, new airport carpooling, and a “Send a Ride” voucher tool. (Read)

Great, say some.

MyPOV is less than enthusiastic.

This strikes me as more like a company rummaging through the junk drawer hoping something in there still works.

Selling Epic Passes in-app?
Airport share rides because terminals are jammed?
Celebrity videos slapped onto vouchers?

That’s not strategy.

It’s more like duct tape with a surge price… in the mountains.

Uber’s been promising “the next big thing” for almost a decade. Freight. AVs. Grocery. Micromobility. Memberships. Travel. The company has more abandoned hobbies than a midlife crisis… and people bag on Musk for changing his mind???!!! 🤦‍♂️

Revenue growth still circles back to the same low-margin grind: hauling humans from A to B. And food… any determined 12-year-old with a bike can compete.

Uber can keep launching features until the cows come home as far as I’m concerned.

The only thing that matters to you and me as investors is whether any of ‘em actually change the math — and so far, the meter isn’t moving.

My bride and I weren’t either… moving, that is.

Literally.

Two separate Uber drivers abandoned us at the Orlando airport recently even though they’d already committed to the drive. The third decided to book the trip, then evidently took a siesta and went silent.

We’ve changed to Lyft.

Keith’s Investing Tip: When a company keeps reinventing the wrapping instead of the product, look elsewhere. Winners innovate where it counts — in the margins.

Trade Idea: Short, avoid or putskies. There are bigger, more profitable fish to fry… especially when it comes to companies actually building the future. But that’s just me.