☕️ Talking Palantir, Tesla, AST SpaceMobile and Eli Lilly

Howdy! 👋 

It’s great to be back after a few much-needed days off and a grand 1,500-mile adventure across the American West. 

I had hoped that Iran would be behind us by now but that looks not to be the case as I type. 

US Treasury yields are rising which, of course, means the “vig” – meaning the vigorish a.k.a. the cost of borrowing all the money they do is too – so traders are selling to avoid their version of a big hairy ol’ margin call. 

Try hard not to get consumed by the headlines. 

This could be one of the most important earnings seasons in a while. 

It doesn’t matter if you’re a trader or an investor. 

The S&P 500 has risen 3% three weeks in a row only 3 times since 1950 if memory serves… and in each case, was overwhelmingly positive a year later. On average +33%. 

I hope you’ve stayed “in to win” for the simple reason that if you have, you ARE! 

In fact, your portfolio may be tracking or at least flirting with new all-time highs… something several OBAers have let me know is the case. Well done everyone. 💯 

Remember… 

Investing is about focus, not noise. 

• Plan 

• Execute 

• Repeat. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Earnings are pretty dang good so far 

Just 10% of S&P 500 companies have reported so far, but the early “print” – meaning what the numbers say – is outstanding. 

How outstanding? 

… 88% of the companies that have reported have beaten on earnings and 84% have beaten on revenue.  

The big banks have already come and gone — JPMorgan, Goldman, Bank of America, Wells Fargo, Citi, Morgan Stanley — and the message was consistent across the board… client activity picked up, capital markets came back to life, and credit quality held up far better than the recession mongers and doom artists predicted.  

What I like most though was this. 

The blended earnings growth rate sits at 13.2% for Q1 — which, if it holds, would mark the sixth consecutive quarter of double-digit growth. As I noted to the super-savvy Stuart Varney this morning, I think it could finish earnings season at 15-20%. 

Take a moment and let that sink in. 

The legion of doom has been very vocal the entire time and VERY wrong the entire time… about the sky falling, about the economy, about the AI bubble babble, and more. 

Meanwhile and as always, we’ve stayed true which raises an important point yet again. 

The sooner you learn to focus on great companies putting up great numbers, the sooner your portfolio will thank you.  

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism every time over time. So don’t get wrapped up about moments “in time.” 🎯 

2 – Talking Tesla, Boeing and the grey beard club 

I was thrilled to be invited back for another conversation with the venerable Stuart Varney this morning ahead of today’s opening bell.  

Stuart asked me for my take on Tesla and Boeing’s upcoming earnings. Then he unexpectedly deviated to ask “what’s with the beard” as he got flooded with messages from viewers for reasons that will make sense in a moment. Talk about a badge of honour! 💯 

Enjoy! 😊 

3 – Palantir just got a seat at the table for one of the biggest government AI contracts going 

Chances are good if you fly like I do that you’ve noticed how antiquated the FAA is these days. 

To say that the entire FAA system needs an overhaul could just be the understatement of the year… aging infrastructure, tech outages, safety concerns. You get the idea. 

Congress has already committed $12.5 billion, with another $20 billion likely on the way. 

Guess who’s in the running? 

Yep, Palantir. 

Along with Thales and Air Space Intelligence. (Read) 

Sadly, my guess is that the government will cobble together some new version of a Frankenstein tool rather than going with what’s best… in which case that would be Palantir as a sole-source supplier, but I digress. 

Hopefully, you’ve got at least a few shares banging around in your portfolio. 

$200.  

Now and once again I wonder, do I own enough shares? 🤔 

Hmmm. 

4 – Blue Origin: Oops, our bad🤦‍ 

AST SpaceMobile is down 12% premarket after Blue Origin lost their BlueBird 7 satellite on launch Sunday — wrong orbit, satellite gone. (Read) 

Even so, one hiccup on a third-ever rocket launch is not a reason to write off the commercialization of space. That's like saying the internet was a bad idea after a server crashed in 1994.  

The underlying thesis is not going away.  

Morgan Stanley pegs space as a $1 trillion industry by 2040. Personally, I think that number is orders of magnitude too low… moreover, I think the timeline is considerably faster than most people expect. 

I could make the case to buy AST if it drops a bit more using a LowBall Order but I am more inclined to sell cash-secured puts because it’s a higher probability tactic. 

Btw if you’re an OBAer who attended the recent Options Boot Camp, you know the criteria needed to do this while also turning it into a high probability opportunity, too! 

If you’re not an OBAer and this kind of thing sounds interesting, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead® where there’s a community of investors and traders just like you making the most of today’s markets using tactics like the two I’ve just mentioned. (Learn more) 

5 – Every pharma wants this technology 

Eli Lilly is acquiring biotech Kelonia Therapeutics for up to $7 billion — $3.25 billion upfront, the rest tied to milestones. (Read) 

Kelonia is developing in vivo CAR-T therapy — technology that reprograms a patient's own T-cells inside the body to attack cancer.  

So? 

This is breakthrough stuff. 

It’s the difference between eating a really awesome meal in a 5-star Michelin restaurant then having the chef hand your immune system a set of instructions to cook the best food on the planet all on its own. 

It could be one of the most important, effective cancer treatments ever introduced. 

Lilly is a great company and this is a smart acquisition imho. But personally, I prefer other names in this space that are already generating real returns, have higher TSY’s (True Shareholder Yields) and lower betas (meaning they tend to move less aggressively than the broader market) for the OBA Family. 

Bottom Line 

You attract the energy you give off so invest in optimism and attract profits.  

Good vibes and positivity are contagious. 

As always, MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀