☕ Tesla’s numbers are out and the haters remain focused on the wrong thing, yet again

Good morning! 👋 

It’s Hayley here today. I hope you’re getting a good start to your day!  

A wild Keith was last spotted holding what can be identified as an apple fritter, so I can confirm that he is alive, well, and importantly, fully committed to his snack strategy. 🍎😃 

Now, on to the markets.  

All three indices are green in pre-market trading, as investors are encouraged by strong results from big tech, and there’s renewed confidence that AI spending is still strong.  

Who would’ve known?! 🤦‍♀️ 

We’ve also had the Fed keep interest rates unchanged, exactly as the market priced in.  

No real drama or surprises there... which is often the best news for stocks. Like I said yesterday, the markets love certainty. 

Anyway, tech earnings are still dominating the headlines as I’m scanning this morning.  

Meta, Microsoft and Tesla all beat expectations on both earnings per share (EPS) and revenue, although investors are currently being selective in how they’re handing out rewards. 

Still, the bigger picture remains clear - the AI cycle is not slowing down. Companies are spending, building, and scaling for what comes next.  

Take Tesla. Yes, it beat top and bottom-line expectations, but the real story is what it is becoming.  

It is pivoting forward: 

• Ending Model S and X programs next quarter 
• Replacing Fremont production capacity with Optimus humanoid robot manufacturing 
• Expecting fully autonomous vehicles across 25 to 50% of the US by year-end 
• 5th consecutive record quarter for energy storage 
• Calling 2026 a “very big CapEx year” - with plans to more than double CapEx 

Not to mention, Tesla now holds a record $44.1 billion in cash, giving it an enormous runway to scale autonomy, robotics and AI infrastructure over the coming years.  

That is not a company preparing for decline, it’s one preparing for scale. 

Keith has said it for years, often as a lone voice: 

“Tesla is an AI, data and energy platform, not simply a car maker and anybody betting against Musk – especially now – may as well have bet against Steve Jobs back in the day.” 

Even back in April 2025, at the worst point of the tariff-driven sell-off, he called Tesla a “gift horse” on The Liz Claman Show. (Watch) 

Meaning a rare chance to buy a transformational company during chaos. 

And since then, the stock has delivered ~85%, compared to the S&P 500 which has returned a very respectable ~38%.  

Yet, I’m seeing a lot of headlines today, like this from Forbes, this from CNBC, and this from Financial Times, all noting how Tesla’s annual revenue declined for the first time.  

I can almost sense Keith banging his head against the wall.  

He’d remind you that this is a company building out the future. Negative revenue growth happens – just as it has for others in the past.  

For example: 

• Nvidia: Experienced multiple flat or down years (post-crypto bust, post-pandemic gaming slowdown) before the AI explosion took revenue to the moon. 
• Apple: Saw its first annual revenue decline in 15 years in fiscal year 2016, right before the services ecosystem and wearables boom drove massive reacceleration. 
• Amazon: endured slow-growth stretches in the early 2000s while building the infrastructure that later became AWS and e-commerce dominance. 
• Microsoft: looked “stuck” with sluggish growth in the early 2010s (post-PC era) until the cloud pivot under Nadella turned it into a growth machine again. 

Yet over a 20-year period, every single one of these has dramatically outperformed the index and given life-altering returns to investors. If you take Nvidia for example, a $1,000 investment 20 years ago, would now be worth $541,970.  

Anyway, here’s something to focus on today...  

If you really want to be successful in the markets you have to learn to think like a hunter, not the hunted. 

If you’re an OBAer, keep an eye on your email. I've already heard from Keith this morning, even though it's still 0-dark-thirty in Oklahoma, and he has some special thoughts to share on Microsoft.  

Now, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this — I promise! 💯 

Hayley E 😀