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☕️ Tesla’s numbers are out and they’re not what the haters ordered

Oct 02, 2025

Howdy! 👋

Not that I’m surprised and trust you are not either.

The S&P 500 has hit another record as I type in the early going with traders shrugging off the US government shutdown. At least for now.

That could obviously change and, for that matter probably will.

Do not get distracted.

A few weeks ago there was ~$7.1T on the sidelines – although to be fair that’s probably dropping as the markets rise – and the Fed has yet to cut.

The bigger issue – and the one you want to focus on – is that the shutdown could finally move JPow and his band of merry marauders off the sidelines with real cuts.

That’s what traders are actually betting on and why they’re buying.

Always remember, think like a shark not a minnow.

The bet isn’t about the shutdown but what happens when the markets move on.

In other words, being One Bar Ahead® (of everybody else).

Pun absolutely intended! 😀

Here’s my playbook.

1 – What does the shutdown really mean for your money?

The current administration thinks it’ll be over soon. Noted VP J.D. Vance: “I actually don’t think it’s going to be that long of a shutdown.” The public, on the other hand, seems to think this is going to be a protracted closure.

Either way, what WE – as in you and I, want to focus on as investors – is that the S&P 500 actually rose during most of ‘em. Moreover, the average return three months later was positive. Six and twelve months on, it was +7.5% and +12.7% respectively.

Don’t believe me?

I get that a lot.

Take a good hard look at this chart and let it sink in.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Don’t ever let politicians rent space in your head — or your portfolio. The markets have a very defined upward bias over time… be sure your money does, too!

2 - Unka Warren goes shopping

Unka Warren is putting some of Berkshire’s record $344 billion cash pile to work — dropping $9.7 billion to buy Occidental Petroleum’s chemical unit, OxyChem. (Read)

Occidental gets a cleaner balance sheet and room for buybacks. Berkshire gets another operating company.

Here’s the real lesson and what you want to focus on as an investor.

Despite what many folks want to believe because it’s convenient or they’re simply kidding themselves, Buffett is one of the most concentrated investors on earth.

Instead of buying “a little of this, a little of that,” Unka B. tends to put massive bets into companies he understands. In this case, a “cousin” to something he already owns.

Wall Street loves to sell you on diversification because it keeps you spread across dozens of fee-generating products that help transfer your money into their pockets. It worked for a long time but the markets have changed which means you’ve got to think about the world differently if you want different (and better) results.

Many investors try to “copy Buffett” by buying whatever Berkshire discloses in its 13F — but that totally misses the point and sets up the average investor who does that for a rough ride.

You don’t win by mimicking.

You win by consistently buying the best and ignoring the rest.

Btw and in case you’re wondering, no… I don’t own Occidental but prefer another “concentrated” choice that’s outperformed it over the last 1 and 3 years, has a stronger balance sheet, better management. Best of all it has a 6.84% True Shareholder Yield – a key metric in my analysis – versus Occidental’s -4.86%. It’s also more innovative.

Hopefully you have similar choices in your own portfolio and are thinking seriously.

If not, do something about it.

People worry that “the train” has left the station but what they often fail to realize is that there are plenty of trains leaving the station from an investing standpoint. 😀

And, as always, I’ll be here if you’d like some help. People all over the world tell me that One Bar Ahead® has helped them become better, more consistent and considerably calmer investors – and it’s humbling as heck. 💯

3 – Go with the originals, not the copycat

Amazon just rolled out a new bargain grocery line called “Amazon Grocery,” with more than 1,000 items mostly under $5. (Read)

Yawn.

Costco already nailed this decades ago with Kirkland, which has become the gold standard in private-labeled everything. Walmart’s got Great Value, Sam’s Club has Member’s Mark, Target’s got Good & Gather. You get the idea.

So, Amazon’s “new” play?

Pure copycat.

Another “me too” moment from a company that’s trying to prove it can compete in the food aisle without tripping over itself.

Meanwhile, grocery stocks like Albertsons, Walmart, Kroger, Costco, and Target all dipped on the news — which tells me the market still takes Amazon seriously, even when it’s late to the party.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Never confuse copycat with competitive advantage. Costco prints money with Kirkland because shoppers trust it and buy in bulk. Amazon’s late move may grab headlines, but if you want real staying power in your portfolio, it’s almost always a better bet to go with the player who created the game, not the one playing catch-up.

4 – Tesla: the numbers are out and they’re not what the haters ordered

Once again, Tesla puts up the numbers while haters drop excuses.

Tesla just crushed Q3 expectations with 497,000 deliveries, up 7% year over year. Wall Street was looking for ~447,000. (Read)

Betting against Elon Musk today would be like betting against Steve Jobs back in the day.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Wannabes often focus on being right. But the world’s most successful investors focus on being profitable, even if they’re wrong. Take a hard look in the mirror and figure out who YOU really are. The answer could surprise you.

5 – Private funding’s new profit potential

This is a very interesting development.

Chances are good that you know what a pain in the you-know-what it is to borrow money from conventional banks.

Companies do too.

The private debt market is “much healthier” particularly when it comes to asset-based financing.

Not sure what that is?

Here’s a quick primer.

Asset-based financing is a type of lending where companies borrow money using their assets — like inventory, accounts receivable, or equipment — as collateral.

The reason I am bringing this up is that there’s a big split – something you’ve heard me talk about numerous times on TV and at presentations around the world over the past 12 months.

Let me explain.

Conventional banks are in real trouble when it comes to lending but the private, asset-back markets are rocking in nearly every category – residential mortgages, consumer loans, student loans, auto loans etc.

In fact, CNBC is reporting this morning that PIMCO is highlighting the same thing I’m telling you about today again, having originally put my thinking – and a specific research recommendation - on the map with the OBA Family more than three years ago when I saw a push into private credit as likely. (Read)

Makes sense.

Now I’m thinking about adding to it more aggressively given what’s happening and what happens with choices made using Keith’s Rule of the Back Page become front page news.

Perhaps even a new choice, too, if what’s happening accelerates.

Hmmm. 🤔

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors limit their choices because they want to “diversify” but like Unka Buffett is doing, concentration in another like name or an offshoot can be dramatically more profitable if you get it right. Especially if there’s an income component as is often the case with lending-related investments.