☕️ Tesla + Saudia Arabia = Camels Optional, Billions Guaranteed

Howdy! 👋 

Yesterday’s massive run higher wasn’t a surprise, at least if you’ve been paying attention. 

I’ve been like a broken record recently telling Varney & Co just this week, “this market will be gone like a shot” when there’s any form of tariff reprieve or a deal or three gets inked/paused/tabled. 

I said dang near the same thing last Friday from Dallas during the depths of the market selloff where I sat down with the one and only Charles Payne. (Watch) 

It is not a surprise that the markets are giving some of that back this morning. 

In fact, I sent this tweet last night urging folks to remain “frosty,” a Marine Corp expression meaning vigilant without letting your emotions get the better of you. 

Always remember two things. 

• First, investors want to buy but they don’t want to get “sold” – as in sold out 

• And second, the market has an upside bias over time 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Big rallies don’t always signal the all-clear 

There were similar spikes during the dot-com bust, the Global Financial Crisis of 2008-2009, and the Covid crash — all of which were followed by more turbulence. In fact, stock futures turned red early Thursday as investors awaited March’s CPI reading at 8:30 a.m. ET.  

And we have red in the early going as I type. 

What to do? 

Pick your battles and your bets very carefully. 

This isn’t the end of the world even though it’s easy to think so. 

Chaos always creates opportunity and the more of the former, the more of the latter. 

If you’re a trader… 

Calls – a bet that prices will increase - got very expensive yesterday as volatility shifted to the upside – and no doubt, the FOMO crowd will be buying ‘em this morning. 

Puts – a bet that prices will decrease - are getting very expensive today as volatility has returned to the downside – and the nervous money will be buying those because they fear the worst. 

Flip that around. 

The best time to buy calls is on a day like today when the markets are getting carried out feet first and people can’t think about the upside. And the best time to buy puts is on a day like yesterday when they’re drooling over higher prices, and the greed gland is working overtime. 

And if you’re an investor… 

The markets have a very defined upside bias, so it makes all kinds of sense (and cents) to focus on that. Continue to buy the best, ignore the rest using proven tactics to harness the volatility most fear. 

If you have no idea how to do that or which companies to buy, I’ll be here and would love to help. If you’ve got that covered, outstanding… most don’t. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Follow the money, not the headlines—leaders lead for a reason. 

2 – Out of the woods? Not until China’s at the table 

China’s not at the table yet and that will be the closest thing to a wildcard when it happens. (Read) 

I’ve got to imagine that those talks are taking place very quietly and - very bluntly - well off the radar screen. But for now, both sides will posture about strength, resilience and more. 

Having spent a lot of time in China over the years, I continue to believe that Washington is severely underestimating China’s resolve. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Never mistake a tactical pause for a strategic shift. The reason most investors fail is that they lack a long-term framework and vision to get ‘em past short term chaos. 

3 – Time to buy Amazon? 

In his annual letter, Amazon CEO Andy Jassy said the company plans to spend up to $100 billion this year, mostly on AI and tech infrastructure like: 

• Faster, cheaper AI chips (Trainium2) 

• Powerful new AI tools and models (Nova, Bedrock, SageMaker) 

• A smarter Alexa+ that can actually do things for you 

• Project Kuiper — satellites to bring internet to hard-to-reach places 

He believes that the cost of AI will come down and become more accessible as cloud storage did.  

I agree.  

That’s the nature of innovation — as technology advances, costs drop, adoption grows, and what once seemed out of reach becomes every day. 

But that’s NOT a reason to buy Amazon, imho. 

I think a) that the company is trapped in a constant cycle of “me, too” when it comes to innovation; b) has an increasing number of customers that positively hate doing business with it even though they continue to shop extensively; and c) I believe Chinese tariffs are going to be a wrecking ball for US Amazon sellers and advertisers. 

If anything, putskies. 

Meanwhile, I’ll continue to short or avoid when there are other choices out there with less headwind, better management and customers who love ‘em. 

Amazon has returned 80.99% over the past 5 years while the S&P 500 has turned in 90.29%. My fave, meanwhile, has returned 835.89% and no doubt you see my point. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing successfully over long periods of time isn’t just about picking stocks. You’ve got to weigh the opportunity costs of alternatives and, if needed, alter your trajectory. 

4 – TSMC Prints Cash While Printing Chips 

TSMC’s Q1 revenue just jumped 41.6% YoY to $25.5B. That’s not just growth—it’s a supercharged semiconductor flex. (Read) 

This isn’t random. 

It's AI.  

It’s data centers.  

And it’s every company on the planet racing to buy the future. TSMC is the foundry of choice for Nvidia, Apple, and pretty much every chip leader that matters. 

Should you buy Taiwan Semiconductor? 

I could make the case for doing so – and a lot of people think that’s a good idea. However, I believe that there are a few other names with more upside including two making their own purpose-built chips. You know where to find me if that’s of interest. 

Meanwhile, consider TSMC if you don’t own it already. Or sell cash-secured puts under $130 to get paid while you shop. Put premiums are pretty juicy with all the downside at the moment. Just sayin’ 

5 – Tesla + Saudia Arabia = camels optional billions guaranteed 

Tesla's eyeing a gigafactory in Saudi Arabia—because apparently, building cars on three continents isn’t enough. 

Why now?  

Because the Saudis are throwing cash at anyone who can spell “EV” and Musk never met a power play he didn’t like – sorry, pun absolutely intended! 🤦‍ 

This isn't just about cars. 

Musk wants expansion. Saudi Arabia wants tech clout. Wall Street wants a story. And bada boom, done. 💯 

I have had to move my timeline out a skosh because of the most recent kerfuffles, but I still think $600 a share. 

Bottom Line 

People think you make your money in bull markets, but the real profits get made when the bears come out to play. 

Speaking of which… 

Our team has been going nonstop for weeks with all the market madness, and everyone needs a brain break – including yours truly. So I’m closing the office tomorrow and booting everyone out the door to recharge (and play). 

See ya’ Monday – well, technically Sunday evening for the “short.” 

OBAers, keep an eye on your email later today for an early edition of the AMAs. 

As always, MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

You got this – I promise!  

Keith 😀