☕️ The CPI number almost doesn’t matter, watch this instead

[Kyoto] – Howdy! 👋 

I’m coming back up to speed – so I’ll keep it brief – after a few fabulous days exploring Kyoto with the incredible Suze Orman and her wife, the one and only KT. It’s been an adventure and a half, filled with loads of laughter and fun but I’ll save those stories for another time.  

Who knows… some of ‘em might even be true! 🤣 

Meanwhile… 

I’m seeing FUD – Fear Uncertainty and Doubt – starting to work its way into the headlines again for reasons we’ve talked about many times including the Fed, Iran, inflation and about a dozen other stories. 

Try not to let it bother you. 

Short term fear always makes long term opportunity cheaper. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – The inflation print everyone's been dreading drops this morning 

The April CPI report hits at 8:30am ET. Forecasts call for a 3.7% annual rise — up from 3.3% in March — with core CPI expected at 2.7%. That would be the hottest reading in two years. (Read) 

MyPOV: The number itself almost doesn't matter. What matters is whether core starts creeping into the broader basket. Economists are already warning about second-order effects — transportation costs jump first, then food, then everything else. Like that’s unexpected… not! 🤦‍️ The real challenge is that the Fed is frozen and Powell is apparently the only one who can’t figure this out. Watch the 10YR, not the headlines.   

2 – The trial of the century just got a whole lot more interesting 

Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella took the stand Monday — the third tech billionaire to testify in the Musk v. Altman trial in three weeks. His own internal email apparently showed he was terrified of Microsoft becoming "the next IBM" as it prepared to pour $10 billion more into OpenAI. Altman testifies today so we’ll see. (Read) 

MyPOV: Forget the legal arguments. This trial is about mapping AI. I’m struck by the fact that Microsoft's $13 billion investment is now estimated to be worth roughly $228 billion which, if true, just may be the single most lucrative tech bet since the iPhone. You know what to do and if you don’t… I’ll be here with a little perspective that may help. 

3 – Oil is still the story nobody wants to be in 

Brent crude hit $114 a barrel earlier this week — its highest closing price of 2026 — before pulling back as ceasefire hopes flickered and Iranian attacks in the Gulf resumed. ING revised its base case to Brent averaging $104/bbl through Q2, with a slow Hormuz recovery keeping prices elevated well into Q4. (Read)  

MyPOV: Every day this drags on, the inflation math gets worse, and the Fed's elbow room shrinks further. Energy names with free cash flow and integrated operations aren't just performing — they're acting as the shock absorbers I've been talking about for months. If you don't have ‘em, you're feeling every dollar of this directly. So, long story short, I hope you do. 😀 

4 – Trump flies to Beijing tomorrow — and he's bringing the band 

Trump arrives in Beijing Wednesday for a state visit with Xi Jinping — the first U.S. presidential visit to China in nearly nine years. He's bringing 16 CEOs including Elon Musk, Tim Cook, and Larry Fink, with trade, AI, export controls, Taiwan, and the Iran war all on the agenda. (Read) 

MyPOV: I’ve made the observation that watching the US and China right now is like watching the world’s biggest game of “chicken.” Who blinks first will be the thing… with a $600 billion trade relationship, rare earths, oil, semiconductors, and Iran all on the table simultaneously. China wants predictability while the US wants Chinese support for an Iran resolution. Neither side goes home with everything. (Read) 

5 – The smartest money in the world just made its biggest Asia bet in a decade — and most people missed it 

Global hedge funds drove the week ended May 7 to the heaviest week of buying in Korean, Japanese, and Taiwanese stocks in more than a decade, with net exposure to those three markets hitting the highest point since Morgan Stanley began tracking the data in 2010. (Read) 

MyPOV: Writing from Kyoto this morning — let me be direct. These funds are not buying because they love these markets. They are buying because the entire AI supply chain runs through this region across a staggering range of industries. TSMC fabricates the chips. Samsung and SK Hynix supply the memory. Tokyo Electron and Shin-Etsu make the equipment and materials those fabs can't run without. And that's before you get three layers deep into supplier networks where almost nobody is looking yet. Hmmm. 

Bottom Line 

Investing is about focus, not noise.   

• Plan 
• Execute 
• Repeat. 

Meanwhile the Nastubasho Sumo Tournament is underway and I’m going to catch some of it on the tube with my bride and our family. 

As always, MAKE it a great day – you got this! 

Keith 😀