☕️ The most doubted company in tech just did it again

Howdy! 👋 

Game on. 

There’s a lot going on today so let’s dive in – thanks, as always, for spending a few minutes with me. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest®! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Would I put new money to work now and, if so, where? 

The super savvy Maria Bartiromo kindly asked me back this morning for a discussion about several key topics on the minds of many… oil, data centers, AI and more. Perhaps most importantly, would I put new money to work now at all-time highs and, if so, where? (Watch) 

And don’t even get me started when it comes to “all-time highs” “stocks are expensive” or “valuations.” 

People grouse about those things all the time. 

They shouldn’t. 

2 – The most doubted company in tech just did it again 

I respect bears and naysayers because they repeatedly highlight risks… Apple is behind on AI, it’s lost the narrative, iPhone sales have plateaued, devices have become commoditized… yada, yada, yada. 

Yet in one of the greatest truisms ever, investors who have stayed the course, stayed objective and followed Apple’s journey have consistently been rewarded. 

Over the past decade, Apple has achieved an annualized return of roughly 28–29% per year with dividends reinvested, compared to the S&P 500's average of around 12–13% per year — more than double the index, annually, for ten years running. 

If you're keeping score – and I hope you are – that means the 10-year total return for AAPL is approximately 1,160% — meaning a $10,000 investment a decade ago would be worth nearly $126,000 today. The S&P 500 over the same period delivered strong but far more modest gains of ~$41,000 – less than 1/3rd what Apple served up. 

Let that marinate. 

The bears have been wrong — loudly and repeatedly — the entire time. 

Once again, investing in optimism beats cowering in pessimism. 

Cupertino just proved the doubters wrong again.  

• Revenue came in at $111.2 billion, up 16.6% year over year. 
• EPS came in at $2.01, up from $1.65 in the same quarter last year. 
• Gross margins hit 49.3%, up from 47.1% a year ago – nearly half of every dollar Apple takes in goes straight to the bottom line. 
• Apple also authorized an additional $100 billion in share repurchases and raised its dividend to $0.27 per share. 
• Raised guidance. 

Where does Apple go from here? 

I’ve got a few ideas. 

Apple is now the ONLY big tech going hardware first. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: When an industry leader takes a very different path very deliberately, you want to pay attention because it means that their leadership sees something the way the rest of the world doesn’t. Apple has a history of doing things its own way. 

3 – The FDA said no, the analysts said meh, and I'm watching closely 

An FDA advisory panel voted 6-3 Thursday against approving AstraZeneca's oral breast cancer drug camizestrant — a targeted therapy aimed at a specific type of hormone-sensitive tumor. (Read) 

The panel's beef? The trial design. They weren't convinced the data proved that switching patients to camizestrant early actually improved long-term survival compared to existing treatments. That's a fair concern — the FDA wants to see that a new drug is meaningfully better, not just different. 

The FDA doesn't have to follow its advisory panels, but it usually does. 

AstraZeneca's London-listed shares dropped about 2% on the news. 

Here's what I find interesting though. 

Analysts aren't throwing in the towel. AstraZeneca still has a credible path to $80 billion in sales by 2030 across its broader portfolio — oncology is a massive and growing piece of that story, and camizestrant isn't the only card in the deck.  

I'd call the $80B target a definite maybe, with emphasis on the maybe. 

MyPOV: One advisory panel vote doesn't make or break a company like AstraZeneca. What it does do is remind us that drug development is a long game full of setbacks, redesigns, and second attempts. The companies that win in pharma aren't the ones that never stumble — they're the ones that know how to get up, redesign the trial, and come back with better data. 

My $0.02: AstraZeneca is a legitimate global pharma player with a deep pipeline. A 2% haircut on a panel vote isn't a reason to run. If you own it, this is noise. If you don't, this isn't the catalyst I'd need to start a position — I'd want to see more clarity on the camizestrant path forward and how management responds. But that’s just me. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Quality matters more than short-term votes. One no doesn't mean never — it usually just means not yet. 

4 – Hertz + Uber = 🤦‍ 

Where to even start with this one!!!??? 

Hertz — yes, that Hertz, the one that went bankrupt in 2020 — is now partnering with Uber to power autonomous robotaxi fleets and driver-led rideshare operations through a newly launched unit called Oro Mobility.  

They'll handle the unglamorous but necessary stuff: maintenance, charging, cleaning and logistics for Uber's autonomous vehicles.  

The robotaxi service will use Lucid vehicles equipped with Nuro self-driving technology, launching in the San Francisco Bay Area later this year with expansion eyed for 2027. (Read) 

Good for them, I suppose.  

Points for hustle. 

But here's what I can't get past. 

Call me crazy — and plenty of people will — but Hertz dumped its entire Tesla fleet in 2024 and could have had a front-row seat to the autonomous future they're now scrambling to buy their way back into with Lucid and Nuro. Instead, they sold off roughly 20,000 Teslas at a loss, citing high repair costs, and called it good management. 

Now they're chasing the same trend with different hardware and a partner who has its own set of complications. And they want you to believe it’s the greatest thing since canned beer. Really???!!! 

The autonomous vehicle story isn't new — the opportunity was right in front of them, and they blinked. Now they're trying to reconstruct it at a higher cost and with more complexity.  

Hertz (HTZ) remains a show-me story with a complicated balance sheet and a history of decisions that make you wince.  

Imho, the real play here isn't Hertz — it's understanding which companies in the autonomous vehicle supply chain actually have durable competitive advantages. Nuro is interesting. The charging and fleet logistics infrastructure underneath all of this is very interesting. 

Picks and shovels are always more profitable than gold rushers. 

Keith's Investing Tip: The most expensive words in investing aren't "this time it's different." They're "we changed our minds."

5 – Calling all OBAers - It's Issue Friday!!  

If you’re already a part of the OBA Family, you already know what this means so please keep an eye on your inbox later today! 😀 

If not, let me explain. 

Investing is only a struggle if you make it that way. 

You can make a change right now for one of two reasons. 

First, you can decide you’re going to master the markets. Then go do it. 

Or, second, you can do it because you’ve reached a decision point where you know you’ve got to do something but you’re unsure what.  

Either way, you’re standing on a threshold, and you’ve got to break through the fear and uncertainty that paralyzes so many investors right now. 

I’ve taken everything I’ve learned over the past four decades in global markets and continued to refine it, perfect it, craft it – and every month I publish a magazine for individual investors called One Bar Ahead®. 

I’ve created One Bar Ahead® to give those who have no idea where to start a path forward and the discipline needed to take it as well as for those who are busy, confused or scared. 

Being One Bar Ahead® combines three ultra-powerful, proven concepts. 

#1 – the time-tested approach of investing in optimism while others cower in fear 

#2 – the discipline of buy low / sell high that comes from constantly rebalancing your portfolio to harness the risk others fear and which knocks ‘em off course 

#3 – a deliberate focus on the world’s best companies, something you hear me talk about frequently on TV and at seminars around the world… Buy the best, ignore the rest.® 

One Bar Ahead®, when done right, offers three things many investors crave right now: a) a systematic, disciplined approach that helps people avoid the impulsiveness that trips many folks up b) lower portfolio volatility – meaning a smoother ride over time – and c) – my favorite part – better long-term investment performance over time. 

To be clear, One Bar Ahead® is NOT for cherry-pickers, ticker tourists or quick buck artists. So if that’s what you’re after, please do NOT sign up – you will not be happy. But if you’re frustrated and tired of fighting for Wall Street’s table scraps, frustrated by bad advice and false promises, you might find One Bar Ahead® to be a great fit.  

Many OBAers have been reading along with my research for decades and that doesn’t happen by accident. 

I’d love to welcome you on board, too. 😀 

Bottom Line 

Every morning you have two choices.  

You can sleep with your dreams or you can get up and make them happen. 

You got this – I promise! 

And as always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong. 

Keith 😀