☕ The most important stock of the week (and why I’m watching it)

Howdy! 👋 

The markets seem to be rebounding a little this morning as we enter a holiday-shortened week.  

At least in the early going. 

I won’t hold my breath even though I’d like to and encourage you not to either. 

You see, holiday shortened weeks rarely trade like you’d think because Wall Street’s just like the rest of us and many Wall Streeters “work light” as we head into the Thanksgiving holiday here in America. 

That, in turn, can produce lower volumes, wider spreads (the difference between what a buyer offers and what a seller wants) and yep, more volatility because the money and its computers often step back while the weak money keeps guessing. 

It sounds a lot scarier than it is. 

The real challenge – and opportunity – isn’t Wall Street going on holiday but all the guessing. 

So don’t guess. 

The markets reward discipline and knowledge, especially around the holidays. 

I suggest you take a page from my playbook, instead. 

• Step back. 
• Take a deep breath. 
• Set a few LowBall Orders for stocks you want to buy ahead of time.  

Then, go enjoy the holiday with your family, friends and loved ones. 

And if you’re outside the United States? 

Same move. 

Holiday-driven trading dynamics are global given how interlinked the world’s financial markets are these days. And that means that there’s plenty of opportunity particularly if you’re using high-probability tactics like simple LowBall Orders or Selling Cash Secured puts that can help you capitalize on chaos and turn panic into profits. 

Be in to win or you won’t… win! 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – The most important stock I’m watching this week — and yes, a Santa Rally is still on the table 

I was honoured to join the venerable Stuart Varney again this morning ahead of the opening bell. Stuart asked about the wildcards on my radar, the stocks I’m watching, and what could move markets this week. (Watch) 

We even carved out a minute for Microsoft — and why, despite all the noise, I still think a year-end Santa Rally is very much in play. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing this time of year always comes down to two things. The scared money constantly looks for a lump of coal, but real investors look for catalysts. Which one are you? My guess is the latter because you’re here and we’re making headway together while others cower in fear. 😁 

2 – Eli Lilly for the win… and a split? 

Eli Lilly just became the first health care stock to hit $1T. (Read) 

Novo Nordisk, meanwhile, got shellacked. 

I’ve talked about it in the past and why I thought it was the better play versus Novo Nordisk. (See #5). 

CNBC reports that, “the pharmaceutical giant’s stock has been riding the skyrocketing demand for its weight loss injection Zepbound and diabetes treatment Mounjaro.” And, “the drugs have driven massive sales growth for Eli Lilly, and demand for the treatments and those offered by its rival Novo Nordisk will only rise in the coming years.” 

I agree. 

What’s more, at $1060 a share, I think Eli Lilly could be an interesting pre-split buy. 

The rumor mill is certainly in overdrive so that matches up considering the last split was in 1997. 

A 4 to 1 or a 5 to 1 (split) could be inevitable come Q1. 

Hmmm. 🧐 

Trade Idea: Deep ITM – In The Money – calls or LEAPs – Long Term Equity Anticipation Securities - to ensure enough time and upside if you’re of like mind. Heck, even “just” the stock if you like keeping things stupid simple as much as I do. 

3 – Tesla +6.37%... today 

Unka Elon has stepped up with more aggressive AI production, something the One Bar Ahead® Family has known about for some time now. 

Now, the game is about to get spicier. 

What’s different? 

Musk made recent remarks highlighting Tesla's in-house AI hardware development, stating that the company aims to produce more AI chips than all competitors combined and plans to release entirely new chip designs on an annual basis.  

He also announced a major hiring drive for elite chip designers, with Musk personally leading design meetings to accelerate innovation for applications in vehicles, robots, and data centers.  

These remarks position Tesla not just as an automaker but as a formidable player challenging giants like Nvidia in the AI infrastructure race, fueling investor excitement about potential revenue streams beyond electric vehicles. 

I’ll have more in today’s One Bar Ahead® update along with a subtle strategy shift, too. 

Keep an eye on your email later today if you’re an OBAer and please consider an open invitation if you’re not. I’ll be here if you’d like to learn more. 

4 – Defence 2.0: NATO’s first “air-gapped” sovereign cloud 

NATO just signed a multi-million-dollar deal for an air-gapped, sovereign cloud system. The headlines focus on Google Cloud, but the real takeaway is much bigger: defence has officially entered the AI era. (Read) 

NATO didn’t buy “cloud services.”  

It bought digital sovereignty — meaning the ability to run AI models, simulations, and classified analytics entirely inside its own walls, disconnected from the public internet and insulated from geopolitical shock. 

That’s why the world’s most critical computer systems are “air-gapped” — meaning physically isolated, sealed off, and untouchable by outside networks. No public internet. No cloud dependency. No foreign choke points. 

Air-gapping is the ultimate insurance policy because it means when the world melts down, your data doesn’t. Or at least, it’s less likely to. 

I think we are going to see new AI-driven industries and computer hardware around “air-gapping” in the next year or two. Particularly as quantum computing emerges. 

Cyber security remains one of the single most important investing themes of our time and I hope you’ve got a handle on it in your own portfolio like the OBA Family does.  

If not, you might wanna rethink that premise. 🤷🏻‍ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Contrary to what most investors believe, the global race isn’t about who builds the smartest model; it’s about who controls the environment those models run in. That’s where the long-term leverage is and the profits will be. Invest accordingly or you will be left behind. 

5 – What happens to defense stocks if there’s peace in Ukraine? 

There’s a lot of scuttlebutt about the possibility of a peace deal in Ukraine. (Read) 

So what happens to defense stocks if that happens? 

MyPOV is that defense names will likely take an initial hit — headlines always spook the weak money. 

But here’s the part most investors will miss (again). 

Beijing will use any peace deal as an opportunity to view Taiwan through an entirely new lens.  

Washington knows it. 

That’s why I believe spending won’t shrink, but will actually expand and accelerate. 

Peace in one theater usually frees up capital, attention, and urgency in another especially when China – which is arguably the only other nation state on the planet capable of power-projection – starts to rethink the game. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Geopolitics never takes a holiday; the money just changes coordinates. 

Bottom Line   

Volatility is tough to stomach and you’re not alone if you think so. 

But the sooner you recognize it as a traveling companion rather than something to fear, the sooner (and more) opportunities you’ll see. 

Profit potential is funny that way. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀