☕ The only chart you need to see if you’re worried about where markets go next

Howdy! 👋  

The headlines are downright nasty and there’s a lot of angst creeping in around the edges lately. 

So I thought I’d spend a moment talking about that even though the indices have gone green as I type.

There is nothing more critical to your success in the markets than developing the confidence needed to deal with Wall Street’s horse hockey. 

Let me explain. 

First, feeling anxious is normal. 

You’re not alone if you’re feeling a bit of that at the moment but – and this is a big “but” – that’s your emotions talking.  

Your first job as an investor or a trader for that matter is to keep ‘em outta the equation. 

It’s not easy, but it is absolutely doable. 

Second, if you’re worried, odds are good that it’s because one of three things is happening. 

1. You have too much money at risk.
2. You own crappy companies – a highly precise investing term 🤦️ – instead of world class choices like those we talk about regularly here and in One Bar Ahead®. 
3. You have convinced yourself that you're an investor but the fact that your emotions are getting the better of you proves you’re a speculator. Sort that out and it gets a lot easier. 

And third, you have no idea what to do next. 

The overwhelming majority of investors (and traders) fail because they lack a proven long-term framework to get ‘em past short-term noise. 

The good news is that’s a totally fixable problem. 

How? 

I get that question a lot. 

Start with three fundamental truisms – Keithisms if you will. 

1. Buy the best, ignore the rest – meaning world-class companies making "must have products and services". “Nice to haves” are a risk you don’t want in your portfolio, or at least I don’t. 
2. Control risk as part of the buying process, not an afterthought, which is how most investors do it if they think about risk management at all. Simple proven tactics are key. 
3. Buy when others can’t sell fast enough and sell when they can’t help but buy. 

Burn this chart into your brain. 

It doesn’t matter how. 

Just do it.  

I’ve shared it with hundreds of thousands of investors around the world over the years who tell me they’ve taped it to their mirror, their monitor, and even their foreheads (and half probably weren’t kidding either 🤣). Make it your home screen or even a screen saver on your smartphone. 

Without fail, I hear that doing so helps induce a state of calm confidence. 

Scientists say that visual reinforcement makes a huge cognitive difference, and I agree. 

Trust innovation, focus on what you can control. 

Wall Street is going to do what Wall Street is going to do in its own interest, and there’s not a darn thing you can do about that. 

Focus on what YOU can control, instead. 

Like buying great companies making “must have” products and services and letting others fight over table scraps from those making “nice to have” schtuuuf. Think Apple versus Peloton. Or Tesla versus Uber. 

Investing isn’t a competition… but a journey.

YOUR journey. 

I know it sounds trite but that’s deliberate on my part. 

YOUR goals matter more than a stupid-asteroid headline or social media furus. So do yourself a favour and stop worrying about what others are saying, doing or wish they were doing.  

Concentrate on what YOU need to be doing to hit YOUR objectives. 

Oh, and while we’re at it. 

Turn off the volume and get outta the dang chat rooms. 

I’ve found over the years that many of the supposed experts you think are so smart likely make a great substitute for Animal Planet. 

I’m not alone, btw. 

A 2023 working paper from the Swiss Finance Institute titled “Finfluencers” found that “anti-skilled” finfluencers who accounted for ~56% of the sample data tended to have more followers and more influence on retail traders than their actually skilled, actually experienced, knowledgeable counterparts who accounted for ~28% of the sample data. 

Here’s where it really hurts though. 

Skilled finfluencers – meaning those with the chops - produced an average of +2.6% per month while the so-called anti-skilled bunch produced negative abnormal returns resulting in a loss of -2.3% per month on average. 

In other words, listening to the “anti-skilled” even though they present engaging, accessible content could actively hurt your investing performance and knock you off track. Something I’d hate to see happen. 

Hyper-alarmist clickbait and half-baked predictions rarely play out.  

Profits, on the other hand, almost always pay out over time. 

My point is this. 

Popularity and reach – meaning followers, likes and videos etc – does not correlate to financial skill because those with the largest reach are often the least experienced and least qualified… the anti-skilled. 

Do yourself a favor the next time you receive something from a major news organization, clickbait artist trying to sell you something or your friend saying “read this” and you feel your fear gland going into overdrive… 

Put it down. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

Bottom Line 

Simple. 

You got this – I promise. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 💯 

Keith 😀