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☕️ There’s only one stock that matters today – and I hope you own it!

Oct 22, 2025

Howdy! 👋

All three major indices are in the red this morning.

Good.

Success by its very definition includes failure.

The key from an investing perspective is to sort the former from the latter.

It’s about focus, not noise.

Set goals.

Plan.

Execute.

Repeat.

If you’re not investing while the chips are down, you won’t be ahead of the game when they’re up.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – There’s only one stock that matters today

And no, my friends, it’s not Netflix.

Tesla reports later today. (Read)

Wall Street will immediately laser in on units sold, margins and rising EV competition.

Let ‘em.

The real story will be in today’s notes – the stuff that accompanies the numbers – not the numbers themselves.

Bluntly, anybody calling Tesla a car company at this stage of the game probably still thinks Dell makes computers in a dorm room. But, hey, it’s a free country. 🤷🏻‍

I see Tesla well north of $1,000 by 2030, and that’s a lot closer than people think.

And if you’re still skeptical, that’s fine.

Lots of people are.

That’s always a sign of opportunity and profit potential.

Why?

Because every revolution looks ridiculous right up until it remakes the world.

Which is why – I submit – you want to invest accordingly.

There is an entirely new generation of millionaires being created right now.

Tesla’s returned 3,035.76% over the last decade while the S&P 500 has turned in a still very respectable but far less 293.29%. That means every $1,000 invested in Tesla is worth $31,357.60 today versus $3,932.90 had you purchased the SPY, a popular ETF tracking the S&P 500 Index.

Now for the tough part.

People often tell me, “So what” because they think they can miss the one or two big movers.

Great if you’re one of ‘em… no offense taken whatsoever.

To each of his or her own, I say.

Just understand that history shows there are 10-15 “Teslas” out there right now and I hope to heck you own ‘em like the One Bar Ahead® Family does. And you know where to find me if that’s of interest.

2 – I said “short Netflix” on Monday

Netflix shares dropped about 7% after Q3 results came in shy of earnings expectations — but the so-called “miss” was really a Brazilian tax hangover, not a business slowdown. (Read)

Revenue still rose 17% YoY to $11.51B, exactly in line with estimates and what I said ahead of earnings.

EPS landed at $5.87 vs. $6.97 expected, but management made it clear that without the surprise Brazilian tax charge, Netflix would’ve easily topped its income targets.

The company also notched its best ad sales quarter ever, thanks to a monster hit — KPop Demon Hunters — which broke records with 325 million views to become the platform’s most-watched film ever.

Now for the fun part.

I said very specifically on Monday during an interview on Fox Business with the venerable Stuart Varney that I was hunting for an opportunity to short the stock – meaning make a bet that it declines.

Seems I was on to something.

The markets heard “miss” this morning and hit the sell button.

Should you buy Netflix now?

You can if you want, but I’m not because I think there are bigger, considerably more profitable plays making “must have” products and services. Netflix is “nice to have.”

Keith’s Investing Tip: I learned a long time ago that it's always better to take a look at the other side of the trade whenever "everybody" knows something.

3 – Refinance demand +81% but I’m not buying it

The Mortgage Bankers Association says refinance demand is now 81% higher than it was a year ago, thanks to expectations of lower rates. (Read)

The average 30-year fixed mortgage slipped to 6.37% from 6.42%, its lowest in a month. Refi applications rose 4% for the week, while purchase applications dropped 5% as would-be buyers keep waiting for prices — or rates — to break lower.

ARM (adjustable-rate mortgage) demand jumped 16%, pushing its share to 11%, which is odd because ARMs usually spike when rates rise, not when they fall.

I am concerned that borrowers are stretching to make the math work any way they can.

And, in turn, that makes me think that the so-called “housing comeback” is for real.

A huge jump in refi applications tells me that people aren’t upgrading or moving but, rather, staying put.

My guess is the data from Home Depot and Lowe’s will reflect that later this earnings season if I’m correct.

Hmmm. 🤔

Trade Idea: If I’m right, that means a tough few quarters for the likes of Pulte, Lennar, D.R. Horton and other homebuilding stocks. Putskies.

4 – Shopper burnout into Black Friday and Cyber Monday isn’t good

Consulting firm AlixPartners says U.S. shoppers are showing signs of “discount burnout” heading into Thanksgiving, Black Friday, and Cyber Monday. (Read)

More than 9,000 consumers surveyed said price matters less to them than it did a year ago when deciding what to buy. Fewer are chasing deals or calling sales “very important.” At the same time, fashion prices are up about $17 on average from last year — with bigger jumps in jackets and outerwear.

That’s a dangerous mix.

Shopper burnout makes me think that retailers might not get the quarter they’re counting on.

MyPOV: The market will hype this as a “soft landing” or “normalized spending,” but the writings on the wall. Weak retail data means stronger opportunities elsewhere — companies with pricing power, real demand, and products people need, not just want.

When consumers stop chasing sales, that’s my cue to start chasing quality.

Like we always have.

One of my faves is “burnout resistant” and has returned 171.23% over the past 5 years while the S&P 500 has returned 95.56. And it’s getting ready to take on Amazon, too!