☕ This company sees revenues growing 5X by 2030

Howdy! 👋

The markets are in a foul mood yet again.

Perfect.

There’s only one decision you need to make.

Are you an investor or a trader?

Most people think you can be both until a series of down days force the issue and they find out the hard way that they’re not who they think they are.

To be clear, there’s plenty of opportunity on both paths.

Just not at the same time.

• If you’re a trader, what’s happening right now is your Super Bowl. You should be celebrating the craziness and making money hand over fist.
• If you’re an investor, the best deals of the year and – dare I say it - potentially the next decade are on the table. You should also be celebrating the craziness because the real money inevitably gets made when the bears come out to play… it’s just not apparent until much later when whatever crisis du jour has faded into the rear-view mirror.

MyPOV is simple.

If you are not investing while the chips are down, you will not be ahead of the game when they're up.

Courage isn’t free, but neither are the biggest wins.

Which one are you?

Here’s my playbook.

1 – This company sees revenues growing 5X by 2030

Rheinmetall, a European defense giant told investors it expects sales to surge from roughly €10B today to €50B by 2030 — a fivefold jump powered by record demand for weapons systems as tensions rise across Ukraine, the Middle East, and beyond. . (Read)

Shares popped on the news and are already up nearly 190% this year.

Should you buy it?

Depends on your view.

Mine is that we are entering a new defense economy where sustained conflict, fragile supply chains, and rising geopolitical fragmentation are creating multi-year demand cycles across everything from munitions to mobility to maritime systems.

The companies best aligned with those needs are rewriting the growth curves most investors still think of as “defense staples.” Drone and missile defense, specifically.

As great as Rheinmetall is, I’d rather go with a different choice that is considerably less volatile and has a far larger portfolio. But that’s just me.

I think Rheinmetall will get there.

War, terrorism and ugliness are, unfortunately, a growth industry.

Hopefully you’ve got this covered in your own investing or are at least thinking along similar lines. If you’d like some help, you know where to find me.

2 – Home Depot to customers: Please remodel something… anything… hello?

I made no bones about it during a TV appearance Monday… Home Depot wouldn’t live up to expectations… again.

Seems I was on to something – I hope you paid attention and stayed away from the stock as I have repeatedly encouraged.

The company had expected home-improvement demand to pick up as mortgage rates eased and consumers felt a little more confident. Instead, big-ticket projects are being deferred, storm-related spending didn’t materialize, and customers across income groups are hesitating before taking on anything that requires borrowing. (Read)

To paraphrase myself on Monday, they’ll buy a sink… but they won’t redo the bathroom. They’ll replace a light fixture… but not upgrade the kitchen. Wallets remain stretched, rates remain high, and shoppers remain cautious.

Foot traffic is steady, but the average basket is shrinking.

That’s exactly what I told you to watch.

What really jumped out at me, though, is that Home Depot held on to its full-year guidance anyway.

I’m scratching my head.

When a retailer keeps its outlook steady despite softer demand, it usually means one thing: price hikes are coming or something else is going to “give.”

I am not inclined to hang around the find out.

Literally.

Home Depot has repeatedly delayed a flooring order delivery for two+ weeks now with no explanation whatsoever, just a bunch of fake-cheery “Hi rate us” emails and a blizzard of marketing garbage when they aren’t doing a great job anyway.

I shoulda gone to Lowe’s. 🤦‍♂️

3 – No, Netflix didn’t really drop 90% this morning?

Many folks did a double take this morning.

Netflix shares briefly looked like they had collapsed nearly 90% on Monday morning after a data glitch related to the company’s 10-for-1 stock split. (Read)

Prices reset, systems hiccupped, and a bunch of tickers momentarily displayed a catastrophic drop that never happened.

No panic required.

Btw, I actually think Netflix could finally be a compelling buy, not because I suddenly think streaming or the company is going to see a resurgence but simply because the lower prices will attract an entirely new group of starstruck investors who previously found shares too expensive. Computers, too.

LEAPs, calls and, heck, even just the stock.

Hmmm. 🧐

4 – Jassy’s Master Plan: Fire thousands, pray the GPUs invent something Google didn’t already

Amazon is raising another $15 billion. (Read)

Officially, this is about “investing in AI.”

Unofficially, it’s about keeping up.

Meta, Microsoft, and Google built their AI engines years ago. Amazon is playing catch-up at eyewatering scale — $125B in capex this year alone and more coming.

Debt markets are footing the bill, but that doesn’t magically turn Amazon into an innovator.

Seems to me that nearly every big move Jassy’s making lately is reactionary… layoffs to cut costs, AI deals to close the gaps, bond sales to fund a race they’re late to.

Wall Street may love the spending, but I remain unconvinced it translates into durable leadership.

Pass.

Amazon will probably do okay but I want great if I can get it.

Keith’s Investing Tip: You don’t win an arms race by being the last one to build the factory. Buy the innovators, not the imitators.

5 – Emirates tells Boeing, “Try not to screw it up this time”

Emirates just handed Boeing a $38 billion order — and a warning. (Read)

The airline bought 65 more 777-9s this week, taking its total Boeing orderbook to a staggering 315 jets. But this wasn’t a victory lap.

Emirates’ president said he’s “holding Boeing’s feet to the fire” after years of delays, certification issues, and production setbacks that forced the airline to spend billions retrofitting older planes just to keep capacity up.

The message was loud and clear.

Here’s the order… now prove you can deliver.

Or else.

MyPOV: At the risk of sounding like a broken record, this is exactly why I remain cautious on Boeing. Demand isn’t the problem — trust is – something I have written to you about many times.

Hope isn’t an investment strategy.

Trade idea: Putskies. I think there’s a good case to be made that Boeing returns to $150.

Bottom Line

Fear is a powerful anti-motivator, yet at the same time one of the single biggest and most compelling opportunities if you can overcome it.

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong.

You got this – I promise!

Keith 😀