☕ Time to buy your first South Korean stock? – and why you might want to

Howdy! 👋 

Oil is back above $90 and naturally traders have immediately hit the sell button this morning. 

Or so goes the story. 

In reality, this is just the computers re-risking – meaning that they’re unwinding/selling long positions that are intended to benefit from rising prices because the US 10 Year Treasury – a proxy for the “cost” of money – is basically flat. 

Good. 

That tells me that the bond market is working normally, which, in turn, means more opportunity for longer for smart investors if lower stock prices prevail. 

Btw and for what it’s worth, I think there’s a good possibility that the Nasdaq and perhaps even the S&P 500 go green by the time you read this if there is no new news outta the Middle East to reset the ol’ “fear” meter. 

The markets are trying to put in a bottom and what most people who are letting their fears get the better of ‘em don’t realize is that’s a process. Not a light switch. 

The markets are the only store on earth where investors fear a sale. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Bill Ackman’s NYSE listing: hold my beer!  

Billionaire investor Bill Ackman is planning to take his investment firm Pershing Square Capital Management public via a dual listing on the New York Stock Exchange. (Read) 

I love it because it means that Ackman is betting on his own genius. 

What’s more, public listings mean real scrutiny, quarterly filings, and skin in the game alignment. If he’s right – and I think he is – it could be one of the most interesting offerings in years. 

Until mine shows up. 😉 

2 – Spirit Airlines is a lottery ticket and that’s being generous 

Spirit Airlines is now apparently begging 500 previously furloughed pilots to come back… after slashing ‘em in the name of “cost-savings.” (Read) 

Doh! 

These are the same geniuses who filed Chapter 11 twice. 

Worth a bet? 

Shares are basically a lottery scratcher best suited to the gas station dumpster, at least imho. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people search for hot stocks, but the real secret to long term investing success is to buy companies that’ll be there when you need ‘em.  

And if you’re wondering where to start or would like some help, you know where to find me. 

3 – South Korea’s homegrown missile magic 

South Korea is grousing about the US playing musical chairs with Patriot batteries that are apparently now destined for the Middle East. (Read) 

Maybe the country should ask why it’s hosting 28,500 American troops as expensive shield rental but I digress. 

The situation opens up the first real opportunity I’ve seen in South Korea in this department for years… the Cheongung-II system. 

The UAE is apparently using it to swat Iranian attacks outta the sky with a 90-96% interception rate. Abu Dhabi is apparently so impressed they’ve already demanded emergency resupply, so 30 extra interceptors are apparently already being rushed into place. 

Most investors won’t notice which is too bad for them but great for those who do. 

This is the moment when a once “promising” supplier crosses the threshold to “must have” partner as US tech realizes there’s a next gen competitor in town. 

War, terrorism and ugliness are all very unfortunately growth industries which means that the best defense is a well-armed portfolio. 

Investing Idea: Consider LIG Nex1 Co., Ltd. (ticker: 079550.KS on the Korea Exchange) if your broker has access. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Crisis always creates new winners, however unpalatable that idea may be. 

4 – Kalshi: the house always wins, especially when it rewrites the rules 

Gambling only works as long as the bookies pay. 

Big surprise. 🤦‍ 

Kalshi – a thinly veiled gambling market operating under the guise of being a prediction market – is invoking what it calls a “death carve out” to avoid paying out bets tied to the death of Iran’s supreme leader according to various sources. (Read) 

And being sued in federal court, where it faces a $54 million class action lawsuit which traders are screaming that the fine print appeared only after the fireworks started. 

The CFTC’s rulebook says no betting on death which begs the question why Kalshi took the bets in the first place but that’s another story for another time.  

Keith’s Investing Tip: Next time a “sure thing” pops up, do yourself a favor and read the dang rulebook twice… then walk away and buy a real company with real earnings, real dividends and real growth. Oh, and never bet on a house that “suddenly” remembers the fine print. 

5 – China’s electric trucks are coming … and Brussels is still filing paperwork 

A whole squad of Chinese players (BYD, Sany, Sinotruk, Windrose, SuperPanther, Farizon) are gearing up to flood the market with electric freight trucks that are tech-forward, faster-charging, longer-range... and priced 20-30% lower than the Euro premium boys. (Read) 

Ruh-roh. 

Europe's electric heavy trucks are basically a closed club—Mercedes, Volvo, Renault, Scania owning 100% of that tiny 4.2% slice of total truck sales (up from 2.3% last year but still crawling compared to China's 29% zero-emission heavy-duty share).  

It’s classic Chinese. 

Show up and undercut everybody with better design, better features, and surprisingly high quality. Think €250k-320k for a solid electric rig versus the European €320k average.  

Some are even building in Europe (BYD in Hungary, SuperPanther partnering in Austria, for example) to dodge tariffs, build service networks and speed production while lowering costs.  

Windrose, for example, cranked out their Global E700 (670 km range, 35-min charge) in three years for under $99 million. A comparable Euro offering takes a decade or more and will set ya back several hundred million dollars or a billion plus. 

The Euros are scrambling. 

Consumer loyalty will evaporate faster than an ice cube on a hot summer afternoon. 

Seemingly everyone is begging Brussels for subsidies, lower tolls, fleet mandates, anything to juice demand before the Chinese grab real footholds at which point market share erodes forever, sales crater and margins squeeze never to return. 

Trade Idea: Volvo Group and Traton could get dinged short-term on margin fears, but I can imagine Daimler & Co. could keep the high ground if it gets serious about innovation. Not sure that’s possible given decades of unimpressive progress but that’s just my initial take. I also think Unka Elon could be the real winner if a fleet like DHL steps up in ’27 for Euro-adapted versions of its Tesla Semi. 

Bottom Line 

Most investors and traders worry incessantly about what might happen.  

The most successful focus on what’s likely to happen. 😀 

You got this – I promise! 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

Keith 😀