☕️ What I’m planning to buy this week

Howdy! 👋 

All three indices are down in early trading which isn’t a surprise in the least given everything that’s going on…. tariff challenges, rising Treasury rates and rising bond yields. 

None of this is a surprise. 

September is always a tough month as traders re-jigger to get ready for the final push into year-end. 

If this makes you nervous, I get it - you’re not alone. 

Here’s the thing. 

The news media doesn’t help matters much because they want to sensationalize everything when the real answer is far more benign. 

Nothing happening today – I repeat nothing – obviates the business case for owning great companies. 

Take Apple, for example. 

Team Cook has 2.2B installed devices out there – the largest installed premium hardware base in history. And it’s ALL monetizable through services that now account for 25% of total sales and are growing faster than hardware. 

Wall Street and the media will never tell you that this makes Apple less cyclical than ever. 

Nor will they tell you that Apple throws off more than $100B in free cash flow a year, supports the world’s largest buyback program AND has more cash on hand than many countries. 

That’s both a floor AND a compounding engine for smart investors. 

So, again, I get it. 

Volatility can be unsettling but it’s part of the process. 

The question is what YOU will do about it. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – What I’m planning to buy this week 

The venerable Stuart Varney asked me ahead of today’s opening bell what’s driving the market lower — and which three companies I’ll be buying more of. (Watch) 

Not to beat a dead horse, but do NOT let the volatility scare you. 

Holiday-shortened weeks are often driven by highly technical trading behind the scenes no matter what you’re seeing on “stage.” 

And that’s very much the case this morning, which is why it’s critical to remember that the markets are the only store on earth where people fear a sale. 

What’s more, volatility is tailor-made for high-probability tactics like Selling Cash Secured Puts, LowBall Orders and more. So, embrace it (even though that may feel uncomfortable or even downright scary)! 

There is always a path to profits! 😀 

2 – Microsoft just handed Uncle Sam $6B reasons to pay attention 

Microsoft just offered the U.S. government over $6 billion in savings on cloud and software services through 2026. (Read) 

Let’s review. 

• $3.1B in savings in year one, the rest spread over three years 
• Discounts cover Office 365, Azure cloud, Dynamics, and Sentinel security 
• Millions of federal workers get one year of Copilot AI access for free 
• Agencies must buy through the GSA’s new OneGov strategy to access the deal 

MyPOV: This is Microsoft doubling down on government as a growth engine. The U.S. spends ~$80B a year on IT, and Satya Nadella clearly wants a bigger slice while locking agencies more tightly into the Microsoft ecosystem. 

Moral of the story? 

Betting against Microsoft is like trusting a double agent in a tux – by the time you realize who’s really pulling the strings, they’ve signed the contracts, encrypted the files and cashed the check. 

As strange as that sounds, it’s not a bad thing for investors. 

The smarter move is to ride shotgun because when Microsoft tightens its grip, profits have a funny way of following along. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Most investors mistakenly think the money is in flashy apps or technology. I find it’s often in the plumbing (everybody uses). 

If you understand distinctions like this one and how that leads to greater profit potential, good on ya! Most investors don’t, which is why I’ll be here if you’d like some help or simply a kick in the asteroids to realign your life and your wealth. 

Microsoft, btw, has returned 86.16% since I brought it to the OBA Family’s attention versus 52.31% from the S&P 500 over the same time frame. I hope you’ve got this covered because there is still a lot of upside ahead imho. 

3 – Pepsi jumps, should you? 

Pepsi shares are 4% higher this morning on news that activist investor Elliott Investment Management has taken a position seeing a “rare” and historically significant opportunity for a turnaround. (Read) 

It’s a $4B position, not chump change. 

Normally, I’d pass but Elliott has a long history of activism that’s worked out well for shareholders. 

Trade Idea: LEAPs to keep risk down or even a few shares could be interesting. 

4 – Kraft: Buffett’s bummer 

Kraft Heinz says it’s splitting in two. (Read) 

Oh, good. 

Now we can buy highly processed food from two companies instead of one. 🤦‍️ 

The 2015 mega-merger was supposed to create a packaged food powerhouse. Instead, the stock’s down ~60%, demand is weak, and even Buffett had to write down billions. So now the thinking is that they’ll spin sauces and spreads (Heinz ketchup, Philadelphia, Mac & Cheese) into one company and groceries (Oscar Mayer, Lunchables) into another.  

Supposedly “unlocking value.” 

That’s Wall Street speak for “window dressing” and management hoping you're not smart enough to realize the game being played. Usually at your expense. 

Putskies. 

Even Buffett is bummed. 

And, not for nothing, but Elliott is going after Pepsi, not Kraft. 🤷🏻‍ 

5 – URGENT - Scam Alert 

It came to my attention this weekend that there is yet another group of scammers out there who are impersonating me using Facebook, WhatsApp and Telegram to lure people into fraudulent activity.  

They call themselves the “Dividend & Compounding Investor Club” or something similar and are using my likeness including AI adapted text and even voice. The individual in charge calls himself “Keith Fletcher” and what d’ya know, he looks exactly like me (because he is using a stolen picture). 

What’s more, the scammers are using a combination of direct messages, texts and calls to solicit victims for one-on-one mentorship, exclusive tips and updates, crypto trading and more via WhatsApp and Telegram – none of which are services we offer. 

If you have been contacted this way, it’s a scam – even if you have been directed to our real sign-up page. 

If you are interacting with these slimeballs, stop immediately. 

• We do not use WhatsApp nor Telegram or Discord. 
• We do not offer 1-on-1 trading mentorship, crypto trading, copy trading or trade optimization, etc. 
• We do not offer profit sharing or other similar schemes because they are illegal. 
• We do not recommend specific options trading accounts. 
• Most importantly, we will NEVER approach you by DM or text on any social media platform to sell you anything. 

👉 If you ever have doubts, stop and email us before entering payment information. Do NOT fund a crypto account under any circumstances using a link or a QR code they provide. It is highly likely you will never see your money again. 

Please share this alert with anyone you know who may be at risk. 

And thank you, in advance, for helping protect the Five with Fitz and One Bar Ahead® Families. 

Bottom Line  

Always do what Wall Street does, not what it says!   

Knowing how the game is played is a huge advantage because it means you can sidestep the chaos and use it to your advantage.  

Profit potential almost always follows.  

Let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀