☕ What’s next, is this a pivot point?

Howdy! 👋 

The markets are treating Venezuela like a non-event this morning as I type in the early going. 

Good and, admittedly, whew. 

Historically and as I noted in a special update for the One Bar Ahead® Family yesterday, geopolitical shocks rarely have a lasting impact on financial markets. 

In fact, the opposite is true. 

They tend to set up spectacular opportunity for investors who can focus on what comes next, what to buy, how and why. 

The OBA Family has a rock-solid buy list at its fingertips at all times for just such occasions; I trust you do, too. And if not, get busy! 

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Is today’s market action a pivot point, plus 2 stocks that have my undivided attention this morning 

The venerable Stuart Varney kindly invited me back again this morning and, as always, it’s an honour! He wanted to get my take on a number of items starting with Venezuela, whether or not current market action is a pivot point (for another rally).  

We also talked about two stocks I think are ready to move, but for reasons that we’ll talk about another time, remain overlooked. (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Investing successfully isn’t just about the “money” but about the freedom to make better, more consistently profitable, decisions over long periods of time… a nuance that many investors miss but which will make sense if you watch this morning’s interview. 

2 – CES is now THE show to watch 

The annual CES – Consumer Electronics Show – has kicked off in Lost Wages, err… Las Vegas. I will be particularly focused on addresses from Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang at 4pm ET today followed by AMD CEO Lisa Su later at 9:30pm ET, also today. You can watch here.  

Their remarks could easily ‘re-ignite’ the AI trade, and that, of course, could be great for our money. 😄 

My POV: There’s a lot of bubble blather at the moment when it comes to AI but the only real bubble is the number of people talking about it being a bubble. But hey, it’s a free country. These folks probably didn’t believe in smartphones either. Sigh. 🤦‍ 

And if you’re not certain? 

I get it; you’re not alone. 

Just keep in mind that history shows very, very clearly that every great “wave” produces a handful of companies capable of producing life-changing wealth for the investors who own ‘em.  

It also shows that there are 10-15 “Nvidias” out there right now in different stages of maturity in all sorts of industries. Your job as an investor is to find ‘em and get your money there as early in the game as possible. 

I’ll be here if you need me and cool beans if you don’t because you’ve got this covered. 💯 

3 – Palantir – “my only fear is not owning enough shares.” 

Precision intelligence. 

Months of hyper-accurate planning and mission prep. 

Delta, SOAR, HRT and DEA in and out in ~30 minutes. 

0 US KIA and only a handful of non-life-threatening injuries. 

100% of mission objectives accomplished. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The market always pays a premium for certainty. Companies that provide that are often put on sale for reasons that have nothing to do with the underlying business case for long-term ownership. 

And while we’re on the subject, imagine that… no word from Big Shortimus Maximus this morning with Palantir proving (once again) that it is worth every penny. 🧐 

4 – I’d rather own anything BUT cable TV 

Comcast has officially spun off a portion of its media business into a new, standalone company called Versant, which began trading on the Nasdaq under the ticker VSNT. (Read) 

It’s a classic spin-off — separating a portfolio of cable networks like CNBC, USA, E!, Syfy, and Golf Channel, alongside digital assets such as Fandango and Rotten Tomatoes, into their own public entity. 

The strategy is straightforward… focus on sports and news, where live viewing still matters, while gradually building out digital verticals to offset the long decline of the cable bundle. 

Riiiiiiiiggggghhhhhttt… 

Linear TV is dying and no amount of fancy pants reorganization will change that which is why I’d personally rather own just about anything other than cable TV right now. 

Shares opened at $45.17 but I think it won’t be long before shares fall off a cliff. My off the cuff guess is $20 within the year. 

Reminds me of Newsmax quantitatively speaking.  

That stock went public at $14, soared to $83.51 and now trades at $7.94, down 97% from a 52-week high of $265.00. 

Ouch!  

5 – Defense stocks 

‘Nuff said… with a twist. 

Most investors are focused on cyber warfare, missiles and informatics, but I think the Maduro raid points out a renewed need for land-systems. Especially in Europe. 

Germany’s Rheinmetall has a large backlog and strikes me as undervalued even though the PE suggests otherwise to conventional investors who fail to grasp the nuance that is value investing’s blind spot these days – and something we have talked about in One Bar Ahead® repeatedly over the past few years. 

Anybody using the old playbook is already getting left behind. 

Tactics like Selling Cash Secured Puts or Put Spreads could work nicely if you’d like to get paid to shop for prices at a discount, btw. 

Bottom Line 

When the headlines scream panic, lean into discipline, not drama. 

Your portfolio will thank you. 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀