☕️ What’s next: Tesla sticks it to the naysayers again
Apr 23, 2026Howdy! 👋
Yesterday we got record highs as U.S. President Trump extended the ceasefire with Iran.
Today, we’ve been hit with red across the board.
What’s a smart investor to do?
Simple and to a point I make often…
History shows very clearly that being invested in markets that may not be perfect beats waiting to invest in perfect markets.
Here’s my playbook.
1 – Tesla just stuck it to every naysayer on the planet (again)
Triple beat.
Revenue, EPS, gross margins — all better than what Wall Street expected. (Read)
- Revenue: $22.39B vs. $22.19B estimated
- EPS: $0.41 vs. $0.34 estimated
- Gross Margins: 21% vs. 17% estimated
Right on cue, the naysayers are out in force — fixating on every little thing they can spin negative.
But and as usual, they're missing what's really happening here.
People still calling Tesla a car company are simply not looking at the same company I am. They probably think the iPhone is still about “mobile.”
I see one of the most underestimated, undervalued AI companies on the planet.
I've been saying this for years, of course, usually to a chorus of "yeah buts"… "no buts" and sadly, people who are just being “butts.”
So why is the stock down in early going?
Oldest game in the book.
Wall Street's go-fast traders have the attention span of a gnat and are using your excitement against you.
We've talked until I'm blue in the face about using tactics that take away their advantage — and this is one of those moments where I sure as heck hope you are. How you buy matters a lot in today's markets... probably just as much as what you buy, frankly.
Now some investors are pointing to Elon and the CFO's comments about a multi-year "big capital investment phase" — with negative free cash flow expected for the rest of 2026 and capex heading north of $25 billion.
Here's what I say to that.
Amazon burned cash for years building AWS. Investors who bailed early because the balance sheet looked "scary" missed one of the greatest wealth-building runs in stock market history. The same crowd now wringing their hands over Tesla's capex would probably have sold Amazon in 2003.
Contrary to the quarterly dice-throwers, Elon doesn't give a rip about sweating a "slow quarter" or three.
Neither do I.
He is playing 5 moves ahead while making massive, deliberate, focused bets — and doing it while beating on every headline number.
The margin beat alone should silence the bears — at least temporarily. Going from 17% to 21% gross margins while investing at this scale is not easy. It’s simply Unka Elon doing what Elon does when he's actually focused.
You know what to do.
And if you don’t… well, that’s a fixable problem.
I’ll be here if you need me or would like some help.
Keith's Investing Tip: The surest path to profits often starts when the fewest people see it.
2 – Microsoft: Did you catch the move?
Microsoft sits ~20% below October ‘25 highs, having just closed its worst quarter on Wall Street since 2008 in March. (Read)
Bail or buy?
Wrong question.
The stock is already up ~18% off lows put in on March 30 when it traded for just $356.28 a share.
Did you catch the move?
Everybody in the OBA Family had the opportunity to do so using a recently introduced proprietary tool called “GreenDots” - designed specifically to identify moments when the markets favor buying over more selling – that helped put Microsoft on their radar before the rebound started.
It doesn’t matter whether you’re a trader or an investor.
I couldn’t care less, frankly.
What I want to point out is that the markets continually hand you opportunity. So it makes sense to use tools that help you see it clearly regardless of how you define that.
If you’re an investor, fine… be an investor and use things like flow to help identify when stocks are oversold or overbought. Both can be an opening.
If you’re a trader, fine… be a trader and use technical indicators related to thrust, volatility or even liquidity that can help you spot the openings Wall Street regularly serves up.
Keith’s Investing Tip: You can be a trader or an investor just not both the same time. Regardless, use tools (and tactics) that maximize YOUR focus and YOUR portfolio.
3 – Uncle Sam’s interest in Spirit Airlines = bad idea
The Trump administration is apparently in advanced talks to hand Spirit Airlines a $500 million government lifeline — potentially taking an equity stake in a carrier that just filed its second bankruptcy in less than a year. (Read)
Bad idea.
Ultra-low-cost carriers built on razor-thin margins, and rock-bottom customer satisfaction don’t get fixed with a half-billion-dollar check. That just props ‘em up enough to burn through it, then fail anyway.
Apparently twice isn’t lesson enough.
The real cost here isn't $500 million but the message it sends… failure has no consequences if you're big enough to be politically inconvenient.
Even the Transportation Secretary isn't convinced — "would we just forestall the inevitable?" United's CEO was blunter still — well-run airlines are profitable right now. This one isn't one ‘em.
Um, yeah. 🤦
Keith’s Investing Tip: When Washington starts picking winners and losers, the markets already knows who loses. Success, by definition, includes failure.
4 – Biggest energy security threat in history – that’s rich!
IEA honcho Fatih Birol says “we’re facing the biggest energy security threat in history.” (Read)
No.
What we're actually facing is the predictable, entirely avoidable hangover from decades of governments and oil companies choosing not to invest in alternative energy sources, alternative supply chains, alternative routing, and alternative infrastructure — because it was inconvenient, expensive, or politically awkward.
The threat isn't history.
The negligence is.
This is what happens when the brainiacs in charge spend 30 years patting themselves on the back for managing a system filled with outmoded and outdated schtuff instead of improving it. Now the Strait of Hormuz sneezes and the whole world reaches for a tissue.
Birol's been running the IEA since 2015, btw.
Just saying. 🤦
MyPOV: When the people who were supposed to prevent a crisis start narrating it like they're surprised, that tells you everything you need to know about who to trust going forward. Spoiler: it's not them.
Invest accordingly… in companies actually building the alternatives — not the ones who spent a decade announcing net-zero pledges while quietly lobbying against the pipelines, panels, cars, alternative power sources, transportation and a long laundry list of innovation that would have helped.
One more thing to think about.
The divergence between who talks about energy security and who's actually solving it is one of the great investment opportunities of this decade. Starting with you know who.
Keith's Investing Tip: People who create problems rarely have the incentive — or the imagination — to fix ‘em. That’s why you want to invest in those who do.
I’ll let myself out. Yeesh!
Oh, and if you invest in dino juice like I do, do yourself a favor and buy the best, ignore the rest® — my fave has an amazing dividend, a global footprint and one of the most efficient balance sheets on the planet. Yours?
5 – As much as I hate the expression "I told you so" — I told you so
Starbucks — a Seattle institution for 55 years — is investing $100 million to open a major corporate hub in Nashville, bringing 2,000 jobs to Tennessee. (Read)
Seattle might want to sit down for what comes next.
Seattle could lose up to $750 million in tax revenue in the coming years as a result. (Read) And it's not hard to understand why this is happening. By moving some teams and functions to Tennessee, Starbucks looks to avoid a recently enacted 6.5% state tax on IT services. (Read)
Washington state Democrats passed the "millionaires tax" in March, which Democratic Gov. Bob Ferguson signed on March 30. This on top of a state that the Tax Foundation ranked 6th overall in the nation for business climate back in 2014. By 2026, that same ranking had cratered to 45th. (Read)
45th.
You don't need a fortune teller to see which way the wind is blowing.
Starbucks is just the opening act.
I don't think it's a stretch to imagine the Seahawks eventually calling it a day. Or a steady exodus of high earners from Microsoft, Amazon, and beyond quietly packing their bags.
Anecdotally, I've already heard from dozens of successful entrepreneurs who are pulling up stakes — and taking their entire companies with them, employees and all, every moving box covered.
The footprint is thousands of jobs and billions of dollars… gone.
Sad doesn't begin to cover it.
Politicians never learn. They treat money like it's captive, when really it's the most mobile thing on earth.
The moment the math stops working, money finds a better zip code.
And to be clear, this isn’t just a Seattle story — it's a warning for every high-tax jurisdiction in America.
When you make it too expensive to succeed, the successful leave. And they take their payrolls, their tax revenue, and their entire economic ecosystems with them.
The hollowing out doesn't happen all at once, though.
It happens one company, one executive, one decision at a time — until one day the “city” and feckless politicians look around and wonder where everybody went.
Smart investors constantly pay attention to where businesses are going, not just where they've been for the same reason the OBA Family pays attention to the “5Ds” … they’re backed by trillions of dollars that will get spent practically no matter what the Fed does next, no matter whose asteroids sit in the White House, and no matter how Wall Street tries to hijack the markets.
Keith's Investing Tip: Money has a passport; get yours stamped!
Bottom Line
You’ve only got to get 2 things right as an investor.
- Buying the world's best companies making "must have products and services" when nobody wants 'em & selling when others can't resist buying then
- Keeping risk as low as possible at all times by using simple, proven tactics that take away Wall Street’s advantage and keep the odds on your side.
As always, MAKE it a great day.
You got this – I promise!
Keith 😀
