☕️ Where markets go next, Oracle and why you still don’t want to bet against the big dogs

Howdy! 👋

Markets are mixed as I type in the early going on the heels of a promising inflation report and Oracle’s rockstar projections, which I’ll get to in a moment.

The rally feels funny.

I can’t put my fingers on why, but sometimes gut-feel merits caution.

The important thing to do today is NOT get distracted.

Wall Street is hoping that you’re going to take the bait and focus on what all this means for the near term when it’s the long-term that matters.

Which is why I want to remind you.

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control … or guess what the Fed will do next.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – Inflation - umm, yeah about that

It was supposed to be the end of the financial universe as we knew it.

Economists from here to Saturn warned that inflation would run amok… that tariffs, spending, and a dozen other forces would, in turn, crater the markets.

Um, yeah.

August PPI fell 0.1%. (Read)

One of my grandfather’s favorite adages comes to mind… Economists are the only profession in the world that makes weather forecasters look good! 🤦‍♂️

Hopefully, you’ve been paying attention and, more importantly, investing accordingly.

We’ve been talking for months about how the opposite of “doom” would happen—once again, very fortunately, we’ve been right on the money (pun intended) as we have many times over the years.

What’s next?

There’s still plenty of upside ahead—and with it, profit potential.

Not in a straight line, of course.

Still, grab your share or somebody else will.

And if you’re not sure what to do or how to invest, you’re not alone.

The good news is that it’s a totally fixable problem and I’ll be here if you need me.

If you’re covered, fabulous!

2 – Where markets go next and why you still don’t want to bet against the big dogs

I joined my good friend and colleague, the super savvy Scott Shellady—aka “The Cow Guy”—on RFDTV yesterday for an extended discussion on Tesla, why jobs numbers are constantly off, the Fed and more. (Watch)

The path of least resistance is still higher.

And with it.

A new generation of millionaires is being created right now!

3 – Oracle puts up and doubters just got shut up

I’ve heard constantly from doubters, skeptical investors and more than a few TV types in the studio over the past few years.

“When are ‘they’ – meaning various companies - gonna monetize AI?” comes the challenge.

My answer has always been the same.

They’re doing it right now which is why smart investors should be buying in ahead of time, before the crowd wakes up. Or, risk getting left behind.

Well, now the “crowd” knows.

Oracle just gob-fobbed the spreadsheet cowboys.

The company has jumped 42.84% as I type, the best single day for the stock since 1992. (Read)

Hooyah!

Can it continue?

Let’s put it this way.

I wouldn’t bet against Larry Ellison & Co any more than I’d bet against Elon Musk or Steve Jobs.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Mark my words, I said on CNBC a few years ago and many times in interviews since. “AI will go down as the greatest recorded investing theme in human history.” And if you are not on-board one way or another, you are kidding yourself.

And OBAers, feel free to join me in grinning ear to ear for having done exactly that – gotten on board - with many of the great names early on. Break out your victory dance, too!

I am. 🕺🏻

Trade Idea: Big upside moves can be a great opportunity to take the other side of the bet when volatility relaxes. I expect Oracle gives up some of the run shortly. Market makers are already selling into it. 🤔

4 – Don’t say I didn’t warn ya

Novo Nordisk just announced it will cut 9,000 jobs — about 11.5% of its workforce — as the GLP-1 gold rush gets tougher. (Read)

Not surprising.

That’s what happens when competition like Eli Lilly, cheap compounded knockoffs, and slowing sales collide. It’s the company’s 3^rd profit warning this year if memory serves.

Wall Street will undoubtedly frame this as “cost cutting” and “efficiency.”

I see what’s happening differently.

When a company changes captains, trims guidance, and starts slashing headcount in the same breath… that’s not strength. That’s more like a leaky boat and they’re patching holes.

The obesity drug market is still expected to top $100B+ by 2030 because the science isn’t in question any longer. Scale, pricing power, and supply chains are.

I’d rather own the data providers because that’s where the next big breakthrough will happen as GLP-1s get commoditized.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes what you don’t buy is just as important as what you do.

5 – Uber still has this challenge

Uber says it’ll launch Joby Blade helicopter rides on its app starting in 2026. (Read)

MyPOV?

Uber knows that Tesla is about to eat its lunch on the ground so it’s taking to the air (and imho scrambling).

Air taxis may be “the next generation of travel,” but until the FAA signs off, Uber’s biggest challenge is still the one on the street: making money with cars.

Hmmm. 🤔

I’m starting to think Uber is $50 a year from now barring some truly earth-shattering, game-changing changes to its business model.

Putskies, short or avoid.

It’s not perfect, but it works for me.

Bottom Line

Investing’s a funny thing.

Loads of people say they want to be rich but precious few actually do what it takes.

There are only two paths.

1. Learn what you need to do and make it happen, or
2. Make excuses.

The former will change your life in ways you cannot possibly imagine until you get started. The latter will too, just not the way you anticipate.

I speak from experience.

I’m not the smartest guy in the room and never will be. But if I can learn how to do this stuff, so can you. 😀

You got this!

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.

Keith 😀