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Your Fed Day plan

Mar 18, 2022

Good morning!

Futures are up on news that there may be some “breakthrough” talks in Ukraine based on comments coming from the Kremlin.Never mind that this is classic Putin.Here’s my playbook.

1 – If you’re not in to win, you won’t

We talk frequently about the need to be in to win because the real cost isn’t avoiding risk like most think. It’s missing opportunity.I said it weeks ago and will say it again … the markets are gone like a rocket if he walks back or even just takes it down a notch. I’m skeptical that Putin’s serious but have to take the possibility, however remote, seriously. (Read)

2 – High oil & gas prices here to stay

People are throwing away oil stocks left and right. That’s a mistake of epic proportions for reasons I laid out this morning during a discussion with the super savvy Maria Bartiromo and the brilliant Frances Newton Stacy.I hope I’m smart enough to add more oil stonks! (Watch)

3 – Fed Day: brace, brace, brace!

The Fed is widely expected to raise rates this week for the first time since 2018. That means higher borrowing costs, higher rates and more. (Read)

Most people have that part covered, at least in thought.

What they really haven’t considered though is that higher rates will cause a massive change in purchasing behavior.

Stick with stocks of companies making products the world cannot live without and with companies that have the ability to protect margins.

It’s hard to make the argument that energy, tech, medicine, and defense stocks won’t get more expensive from here.

4 – Howard Shultz is baaaack

Starbucks CEO Kevin Johnson is retiring, and former CEO Howard Shultz is back for a 3rd time in the chair. I think that’ll be great for the stock. Shultz, by the way, is a really cool guy and will be paid the grand sum of $1 for this stint. (Read)

5 – Oil … yuan’a some!

Saudi Arabia is reportedly “considering” pricing some of its oil sales to China in yuan. No doubt at China’s request, which hasn’t yet dawned on most Western politicians or armchair quarterbacks. (Read)

Make no bones about it, this is as serious as it gets.

China has very real designs on installing the Yuan as the world’s next reserve currency and that has serious implications for the USD.

It’s a story that I’ve been following with my readers for years including very specifically and more recently, the emergence of the digital Yuan and China’s plans to bypass the SWIFT system by creating an entirely separate yuan-denominated global payments network.

OBAer’s, make sure you re-read the June 2021 issue of One Bar Ahead™ for more on the nitty-gritty. (Here’s the link)

Bottom Line

Thomas Edison once said that, “most people miss opportunity because it is dressed in overalls and looks like work.”

The markets are similar.

The world’s best companies often wear overalls.

Many are not glamourous.

In fact, they’re downright boring but – and this is the important part – the world cannot live without what they make and the services they provide.

Forget about the whole growth/value thing you hear so much about.

Think needs versus wants.

‍Think best not rest.

‍Think about which companies will be there 10 years from now.

‍Now let’s get out there and make sure we own a few.

You got this – I promise!


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