☕ 3 Earnings: One to buy and two I’ll avoid like the plague 💡

Howdy! 👋 

I trust you had a great weekend in your part of the world just as we did in ours. 

The markets are green outta the gate this morning with traders looking toward this week’s Fed decision and big tech earnings. 

Plenty of noise from the usual suspects, many of whom have the attention span of a gnat. 

Smart investors, meanwhile, are looking beyond that for the simple reason that they know that patience and discipline are the most undervalued assets in the market today. 

Click to enlarge.

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – This week’s earnings: one to buy and two I’ll avoid like the plague  

I sat down with the super savvy Stuart Varney this morning to share which big reports I’m keeping a close eye on this week – one I like and two I don’t. (Watch) 

Keith’s Investing Tip: I would not be surprised to get some earnings-related selling this week and encourage you not to be either. Emotions are running high as is leverage. More often than not, it’s a gift so I encourage you to get your lowball orders ready. 

2 – Three reasons staying on the sidelines right now sounds smart, but isn’t 

Millions of investors are still in shock from last week’s blistering. 

Millions more are wondering if they should “sit this one out” or “go to the sidelines” for a while until the storm passes. 

I get why that’s appealing so I’ll try to be as gentle and respectful as I can. 

Doing so sounds smart but is, in fact, one of the worst financial decisions you could make for three reasons: 

1. You may as well light your cash on fire – inflation is running at 3-5% or even higher in specific categories like gasoline (~+34.2%) and airline fares (~+22.4%). Any investor waiting for the “all clear” is in for a rude awakening because the economy is charging you 3-5% just for being timid. 
2. If you’re wanting to sit this one out because you think a major crash or some other financial calamity is imminent, just be aware that S&P 500 earnings may grow 30% - 35% this quarter at a time when the best run and most successful companies in the world are spending trillions. Practically speaking, you’re waiting for a pullback that may still mean higher prices than they are today. 
3. The market’s best days tend to cluster around the worst. Missing just the best 10 days of a given market cycle and your long-term returns don’t just blink… they crater… from an average 9.5% long-term return to negative 12.5%. Adding insult to injury, you will inevitably miss the rebound… something the data also show beyond any shadow of a doubt. 

‘Nuff said. 

3 – So much for protection 🤦‍ 

It’s official. 

Bitcoin and Gold are the two worst performing major assets so far in 2026.   

The former is down ~8% while the latter is off ~7.5%.  

Think about that for a New York minute. 

Gold is supposed to be a “safe haven” while Bitcoin is supposedly the digital version… immune to inflation, money printing and a financial system plenty of people don’t trust. 

Well, the world got plenty scary but neither of ‘em showed up. 

Just down. 

Literally. 

What’s next? 

There may be between $50 and $100 in leverage on top of each asset – meaning structured products, index and ETF exposure and so on - which means that prices aren’t a function of classic macroeconomic concerns like currency risk, inflation and rates. 

Just whether or not the institutions are onsides (a bullish input) or offsides (a bearish input). 

My guess is that they’ve got further to fall. 

Putskies, short or avoid. 

Well technically, consider doing all three of those things. 

And if you’re holding gold, take a hard look in the mirror about what you expect to gain from that because the prospect of losing is far more real than people think. 

I’m still noodling on bitcoin and – for that very reason – advocate that investors consider a very focused exposure if they’re interested. OBAers, you know. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes what you don’t buy is every bit as important as what you do. 

If you’d appreciate some help, you know where to find me.  

4 – Not all tech is the same - buy this, not that 

Over the weekend, Unka Elon said SpaceX closed $40 billion in debt financing to buy AI chips. (Read) 

But that’s NOT the most interesting part. 

Musk says the debt markets have largely shut the door on companies without meaningful revenue outside AI data centers. 

I agree. 

Then he went further. 

He thinks the 200+ “neoclouds” – companies that basically rent out AI computing power for a living – face what he called “guppy-level death and consolidation.”  

I agree with that, too. 

Most companies around the edges will fail or get swallowed. (Read) 

I constantly urge you to “Buy the best, ignore the rest!®” because the path to profits in tomorrow's markets will be dominated by those at the very top of the proverbial food chain. 

If you’re one of millions of investors who are chasing small stocks in this space like IREN (IREN), Applied Digital (APLD) or TeraWulf (WULF) because you believe they can lead to big gains, I respectfully urge you to reconsider that premise.  

The risks just got a whole lot higher. 

The best investments on the planet almost always come down to a very serious, well-capitalized few… virtually all of whom are growing at double digit rates and have access to all the money they can use without having to resort to dilutive offerings. 

SpaceX is a very different proposition from Meta, for example. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Be the hunter, not the hunted. 

5 – Breaking: Anthropic files 

News broke moments before I took to the air this morning. 

Anthropic has filed to go public. (Read) 

I could not be more leery. 

1. Mind-boggling net losses even when backing out non-cash financing adjustments. 
2. The company wants to debut at $1.5T to $2.0 trillion, but various private valuation models peg the intrinsic business value closer to $150 billion which exposes unsuspecting retail investors to unprecedented market risks imho. 
3. Buying the IPO means you are giving a blank check to its founders while having zero say in the company’s direction because of the way it’s structured. 
4. The filing shows that many of Anthropic’s largest customers are not bound by long-term contracts which means that revenue could vanish. Just 2 account for nearly 25% of trailing revenues so there is also concentration risk. 
5. Nearly 50% of revenue is routed through marketplaces controlled by Google and Amazon which means that the company is trying to compete with both in the AI layer but still depending on both for infrastructure. This is like ranching on somebody else’s land. 
6. And finally, the most bizarre risk disclosures I’ve ever seen in a filing… the S-1 specifically warns prospective investors that its AI models could display self-preserving behaviors including resisting shutdown, concealing/manipulating information and actions resembling “blackmail.” Then the S-1 also shows the company has no clear path to profits while legally warning that what it’s building could pose a catastrophic risk to humanity. 

Do NOT say I didn’t warn you. 

I’ve highlighted the idea that Google and Anthropic’s recent charm offensive has been with this express outcome in mind… privatizing gains while socializing risks. 

There’s no other way to say this but to simply say it. 

Normally I am a staunch proponent of free markets but in this case, I think there is an excellent case for preventive nationalization because I don’t believe that a private corporation should be allowed to weaponize speculative public capital to fund a technology that its founders admit poses a catastrophic threat to humanity. 

You? 

Anthropic’s IPO will be like catnip for millions anyway. 🤦‍ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: IPOs are one of the most rigged games of all so – and if you’re planning to buy – I suggest waiting a quarter or two for the company to prove that it deserves the trust you’ll place in it as a shareholder... I’ll pass.  

Bottom Line 

Skip the drama… focus on the very best companies you can… buy the dips. 

You got this — I promise. 💯 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and start the week strong!  

Keith 😀