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☕️ AMD, good but not good enough?

Aug 05, 2026

Howdy! 👋

Both the Dow Jones and S&P 500 put in new all-time highs yesterday and, as I type, they’re riding what is now a 5-day rally.

I suspect that we’re due for a minor correction given the amount of money on the table but, like all downturns and pullbacks, that’ll be an opportunity.

If that scares you, take a deep breath.

Remember…

Volatility is simply the price of admission for real wealth and serious investors. So embrace it rather than fear it.

Here’s my playbook.

1 – SpaceX: What the CapEx gang is missing (other than everything)

SpaceX reported publicly yesterday for the first time in its history and the numbers were about what I expected:

Revenue: $7.8bn, up 92% YoY
Net loss: $541m, down from $1.0bn a year ago
Adjusted EBITDA: $3.5bn, up 191%

So we got a beat and raise.

But the stock’s falling.

SOSDD – same old story, different day.

CapEx fears.

We’ve talked about why this is entirely misguided many times, so I won’t rehash that today. But just in case you’re new to the 5 with Fitz or could use a refresher, here ya go. (Read)

The CapEx Crusaders are making a massive, potentially super expensive mistake especially when it comes to transformative companies like SpaceX. And, btw, it is the same mistake other investors made a generation ago when they missed Apple, Nvidia, Tesla, Intel, Amazon and a dozen other companies that have changed our world forever.

To a point I made during an interview with my friend and colleague, the super savvy Scott “The Cow Guy” Shellady yesterday, SpaceX is “the most vertically integrated company in recorded human history." (Watch)

Sit it out if you want but be prepared to deal with those who didn’t a decade from now.

I believe SpaceX will print another generation of millionaires.

Keith’s Investing Tip: There is no shortage of investors thinking big but there is very definitely a shortage of people thinking big enough.

2 – AMD, good but not good enough?

Team Su also reported yesterday:

Revenue $11.5B, +50% YoY
Data Center Revenue $6.72B, +107% YoY
Gross Margin 54%, +14 percentage points YoY
Net Income $2.3B, +163% YoY
Free Cash Flow +$1.6B, +32% YoY

Stock down.

We’ve seen this movie so many times that we know the lines by heart.

AMD has returned ~7,375.96% over the past decade while the S&P 500 has turned in ~256.82%.

3 – Uber has reinvented itself more times than Meta

Uber's second quarter looked fine on the surface. Bookings hit $58 billion, up 24% year-over-year, beating estimates. Net income more than doubled to $2.39 billion. (Read)

Then came the guidance.

Third-quarter bookings?

Light.

Third-quarter earnings?

Lighter still.

People are saying it’s a miss but they’re the ones missing the point imho.

While Uber is guiding light, it's also pledging more than $10 billion to build out a robotaxi fleet. 120,000 vehicles… fifteen cities… all in the name of not getting left behind by the very technology that is already gutting it.

Meanwhile Waymo — Uber's own and much vaunted AV "partner" — is already heading for the exits, unwinding its exclusive deal in Atlanta and Austin.

I've told you in no uncertain terms to avoid Uber and I’m not going to change my tune now.

Uber has reinvented itself so many times that it makes Meta’s constant bait and switch look positively pedestrian… freight, grocery, ski trips, food delivery and so on… yet the core business is hauling humans and burritos from A to B.

Now management thinks it’s a great idea to spend $10 billion chasing a race Tesla already dominates at a time when Unka Elon is rolling vehicles off a real production line every 10 seconds.

Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes what you don't buy is every bit as important as what you do. Perhaps more.

4 – Fool me once, fool me five times and make me sick?

Chipotle pulled jalapeños from its Minnesota locations yesterday after they were linked to a salmonella outbreak that's sickened at least 110 people. The chain swapped in peppers from a different grower and says health officials aren't worried about its current practices. (Read)

Hmmm.

Here’s the thing that gets me.

Chipotle had five separate foodborne illness outbreaks between 2015 and 2018.

The company spent years and real money rebuilding trust after that stretch nearly broke the brand. So when "salmonella" and "Chipotle" show up in the same sentence again, people are reacting to a pattern they’ve seen a number of times before.

Trade Idea: Pass me the salsa... or actually, don’t! I’d rather buy LEAPs if I fancied CMG. I think there’s still enough “love” for the brand that the stock may recover (again) but I’d rather not tie up the capital that would be required to buy the stock. LEAPs can be great that way.

Btw, if you don’t know what LEAPs are or how to use ‘em, I recently held the first ever One Bar Ahead® Options Boot Camp and that was one of the strategies I detailed. If you’re an OBAer, you can get at it via the portal if that’s of interest.

5 – Burry’s at it again 🤦‍

I’ve been waiting for His Excellency Michael “Big Shortimus Maximus” Burry to pop up again.

Right on cue…

CNBC reports that he believes “we are near a major top, and a possible 1987-type fall.”

No doubt Mr. Burry is brilliant but there’s a pattern to what short-sellers do, how they tend to operate and when they show their hand or at least convince unsuspecting investors that they have one.

Smart investors would be wise to pay attention.

The playbook is almost always the same… take a position that the markets or specific stocks will decline – often in cahoots with your hedge fund buddies – and usually when there’s exceptionally good news or results.

Then, publish “research” that is usually off-base, misguided or downright wrong but which sounds plausible to emotional individual investors who demonstrate herd-like behavior because they simply don’t know any better and begin selling.

At that point, there are bonus points up for grabs by making the rounds via reporters and sensationalist news outlets who unwittingly or in some cases deliberately inflame the commentary.

That, in turn, creates doubt in the mind of the investing public who start selling, giving the big money and aforementioned short sellers the opportunity to profit at the expense of otherwise great companies and the millions of hardworking people who have invested in ‘em.

CNBC’s Jim Cramer did an interview years ago outlining the gag. (Watch)

My point is that there are always two sides to the story.

The other thing to think about is that short sellers are often like contrarians in that they’re great at picking tops and bottoms; the problem is they’re wrong the rest of the time.

I’d rather be profitable, even if I am wrong.

Investing is not a popularity contest.

The world’s best companies prove themselves quarter after quarter – which is, naturally why I prioritize ‘em in my own investing and in our research. Particularly when it comes to those making “must have” products and services.

Sure, they may stub their toe every now and then, but that a) comes with the territory and b) doesn’t change the outcome in most cases.

Innovation attracts profits over time, and there’s not a short seller on the planet that can change that even if they have predicted 10 of the last 2 actual pullbacks.

Just sayin…

Buy the best, ignore the rest!®