☕ AMD has returned ~10,360% over the past decade, I hope you own it

Howdy! 👋 

I made the comment yesterday during an interview on Varney & Co, that current market conditions are like watching a ballet… meaning that it’s a finely orchestrated dance. 

Cue the music. 

The big indices all took a tumble yesterday as computers raced to the bottom. This morning they’ve reached détente, the algos have switched to buy, and, voila, we’re seeing a classic rebound. 

How long will it last? 

Simple answer… until the sellers are exhausted. 

Meanwhile, and if you’re an investor, this is a golden opportunity to snap up shares in the world’s best companies. 

Many of the big tech companies have been hammered so hard that they are now trading at the same multiples as staid, boring ‘ol consumer staples choices. That’s only happened 3 times in the past 7 years… COVID, the 2022 bear market, and Liberation Day… all of which preceded another running of the bulls. 

There are no guarantees, obviously, but then again, there never are. That’s a given when it comes to investing. 

What you want to focus on is that the next running of the bulls usually starts before most folks are prepared to see it happen. 

Take the risk or lose the chance. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Time to Buy Home Depot? 

Chateau Depot reported earnings and a “double beat” for the first time in 3 quarters. (Read) 

The “Street” is jazzed and shares are up ~3.46% this morning as I type. 

Underneath the hood, though, it’s another story. 

• Sales fell ~4% from $39.7 to $38.2 billion year over year.  
• Total customer transactions were down 8.5% year over year. 
• Net income declined by ~14.3% year over year. 

It’s the dialogue that interests me most. 

Management cited many of the factors that keep me from owning it as challenges… higher rates, lower housing turnover and economic uncertainty… all of which are causing homeowners to delay pricier projects. 

Keith’s Kitchen Sink Index is, apparently spot on – meaning that as long as customers are replacing sinks and not the entire kitchen, sales will be challenged. 

Proponents and Home Depot’s management say that spring is coming, and an inflection point with it because that’s the company’s biggest sales season. 

I don’t buy it. 

You? 

Keith’s Investing Tip: The hardest choices are often those that seem to make the least sense.  

2 – Jamie Dimon weighs in 

CNBC is reporting that JPM CEO Jamie Dimon says that he’s starting to see behavior that reminds him of 2005-2007 – the years before the financial crisis. (Read) 

Naturally folks have interpreted that through a Doom-oriented lens. 

They’re missing the point. 

Dimon didn’t say a crash is coming but that the mindset reminds him of 2005-2008 when competitors were doing “dumb things.” 

That’s his job as head of one of the world’s biggest banks… to assess risks. 

I agree with him, btw. 

There is always a point in any economic cycle when there’s a surprise. 

I warned very specifically about both crypto and gold ahead of the rout on The Cow Guy Close and my view hasn’t changed. 

The game has. 

Now is not the time to be a hero when it comes to your money. 

And it IS very much time to Buy the best, ignore the rest!® 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many investors think they’ve got to constantly swing for the fences. Others “collect” stocks with little rhyme nor reason. MyPOV is simple and to paraphrase the legendary Peter Lynch who had a similar philosophy, know what you own and why. Or don’t own it. 

3 – AMD and Meta: Wild times in the AI arms race 

Meta just dropped a multi-year, multi-generational deal to deploy up to six gigawatts of AMD Instinct GPUs— days after committing to millions of Nvidia processors. (Read) 

Six gigawatts. 

That’s a big number and hard to put in context but it’s important we try so you grasp the scale of what’s happening. 

That’s enough to power 4-6 million homes, run 3 Hoover Dams at full tilt and equivalent to 5-6 big nuclear plants running full bore just to feed the GPUs… plus cooling, networking and the rest of the enchilada. 

If memory serves, the largest hyperscale campuses are planned at 300-1GW, so Meta’s total buildout could rival an entire electric grid all by itself. The US data center grid is projected to tap ~60-75GW by the end of the decade, again must for context. 

People worry about monetization but that’s misguided. 

The real story continues to be about leverage. 

Every dollar sunk into what I call “frontier AI compute” will unlock $20–25 (or more) in downstream economic activity—training runs, inference at scale, new apps, productivity jumps across industries. Just two years ago that was $5-10. 

We are still early innings. 

4 – Would somebody please keep the Fed away from the mic 

I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again. 

Rallies don’t die of old age… the Fed kills ‘em. 

I am not surprised in the least that Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee says 3% inflation is “not good enough” and that the Fed shouldn’t rush to cut rates. (Read) 

Now the markets are gaming June versus July and the pundits are warning about “higher for longer.”  

Don’t let it faze you. 

Rates are for traders; profits are for investors. 

Yes, inflation is running around 3%. Yes, the Fed wants 2%. Yes, that means rate cuts may take a little longer. 

So what. 

Turn that around and find companies that don’t depend on the Fed including many of the great names we talk about frequently. And if they’re lower beta – a key measure of volatility – even better because that means higher risk adjusted profits and a smoother ride that lets you sleep at night. 

Roughly 74% of S&P 500 companies have reported Q4 2025 results so far. Of those, 74% have delivered positive EPS surprises and 73% have beaten on revenue, according to FactSet. 

Better still, the blended year-over-year earnings growth rate for the index is tracking at 13.2% for Q4. If that holds, it will mark a fifth consecutive quarter of double-digit earnings growth. 

Look, I won’t pull any punches. 

You can run around like a chicken with your head cut off and drive yourself silly worrying about what the Fed might do. Or, you can do what the world’s best, most successful investors almost inevitably do. 

And that is? 

The same thing I constantly encourage you to do. 

Concentrate on finding and buying world-class companies that are going to come through this mess just fine even if there’s more selling ahead. 

It’s a short list and hopefully you’ve got that covered. 

If not, I’m here if you need me. 

5 – IBM got “Anthropified” yesterday 

Should you buy it? 

I wouldn’t. 

I think Claude Code is an existential threat for IBM. (Read) 

In contrast to most of the Anthropic/Claude related fears that are overblown, I think that IBM is very much at risk because a good portion of the company’s revenue comes from consulting gigs related to upgrading older code.  

Remember, COBOL still powers huge chunks of banking, airlines, government — and most of those mainframes are IBM iron. 

The company’s consulting arm (a hefty ~27% of revenue) thrives on those long, complex modernization projects. Throw in mainframe hardware sales, ongoing support contracts, and the “stickiness” that keeps clients locked in because ripping out COBOL is too painful. 

I’ve repeatedly encouraged investors to avoid IBM for years, not because I knew this was coming – I didn’t – but because I’ve long thought IBM was the digital equivalent of a steam roller on the expressway, and I didn’t buy into the whole reinvention story from the beginning. 

Just last June, for example, I said that I wouldn’t “be in a rush to buy shares” as they flirted with all-time highs and others were falling all over themselves to buy. That point of view didn’t earn me any brownie points with the TV crowd, let me assure you. 

I also told you not to even consider adding IBM shares until they dropped to at least $250. (See #5). 

Now shares are down to $231 and I’m still not in a rush to buy.  

I don’t see IBM digging out from under this one any time soon. In fact, I think shares could break $200. 

But something like CrowdStrike? 

Different shade of grey. 

Putskies on IBM and yep, buy CrowdStrike, using the right tactics to control risk naturally. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People treat selloffs as a reason to sell but the world’s most successful investors know they’re a ticket to buy. Volatility is simply the price of admission. 

If you’re at a crossroads or not getting the results you want from your advisors, a) you might find One Bar Ahead® helpful and b) it’s time to find a new advisor. 

Bottom Line 

You don't need anybody's permission to change your life, especially when it comes to investing.    

Grab your share or somebody else will. 

Now and as always, let’s MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀