☕️ Apple's big reveal is here and how high could markets go?
Sep 09, 2026Howdy! 👋
News is racing around the Internet that Bessent’s bond plan is imminent. (Read)
Like many, I hope he’s got something good on deck rather than another house of cards proposal that global traders quickly overwhelm.
That’d be great for stocks, particularly those that have been put “on sale” recently like the one I recommended most recently to the One Bar Ahead® Family.
Always remember…
Investing is about focus, not noise.
- Plan
- Execute
- Repeat
Here’s my playbook.
1 – How high could markets go?
Wall Street's biggest banks are raising their S&P 500 targets for the year – never mind that many of 'em were falling all over themselves earlier this year to tell you that the end of the financial universe was upon us. 🤦
For example…
- Goldman Sachs, March 16: warned that a severe oil-shock scenario could drag the S&P 500 down to 5,400 – bear-market territory, roughly 18% below where it stood at the time.
- JPMorgan, March: cut its target and floated a 6,000–6,200 rest stop if recession risk gained traction – while oil shocks and war fears dominated headlines.
- Stifel, earlier in the year: said a recession would trigger a swift 20% drop in the S&P 500, even while keeping a 9% upside base case.
- Moody's (Mark Zandi): put recession odds at 49% as oil prices spiked toward $120 a barrel.
- BofA's Michael Hartnett: called for a "buyable washout," arguing stocks needed to fall below 6,600 before he'd get constructive again.
- Polymarket prediction markets: were pricing a coin-flip 50% chance of recession by year-end, back when Goldman's own odds sat at just 25%.
I, on the other hand, told you bluntly that "chaos creates opportunity" and encouraged you to continue to invest. And frankly, I hope you did.
HSBC has just bumped their end of year target to 8,100 by the end of 2026 – a 5.9% jump from their previous call of 7,650. (Read)
The irony is pretty biting.
I put out 8,000 towards the beginning of the year and got labelled a member of the fringe lunatic society and/or a card-carrying member of the tin foil hat club. And we're supposed to genuflect at "their" brilliance when the big houses come out with stuff like this???!!!
Anyhoooo….
My good friend and colleague, Scott "The Cow Guy" Shellady – so named for the colorful old-school cow-themed pit jackets he wears on air – wanted to know how high the markets could go if we didn't have to deal with Iran, the prospect of more Fed follies or Canadian tariffs and my answer was as succinct as I could make it. (Watch)
9,000+.
The next generation of millionaires is being printed as I type.
2 – The company that didn't get a check might be the one to watch
D-Wave Quantum, Rigetti Computing, and Quantinuum just landed $100 million apiece from the Commerce Department under the CHIPS Act – $300 million total, with Uncle Sam taking a minority equity stake in each. (Read)
IonQ (IONQ)?
Zippo.
In fact, and on the same day, IonQ raised its 2026 revenue guidance to $450–460 million, up from $280–290 million, and unveiled its Superion 256 platform with orders already coming in for 2027 delivery.
The takeaway?
Government money chases companies that need validation and deep pockets because they haven’t got game. Remember Solyndra, Fisker and A123? Me, too. 🙄
Most investors will screw this up.
A $100 million check from Washington is a lifeline dressed up as a vote of confidence. D-Wave and Rigetti are both still nursing 25%+ declines this year, even after today's pop. IonQ, meanwhile, raised guidance and is taking customer orders on hardware that doesn't exist yet in most competitors' roadmaps… or even their PowerPoint decks for that matter.
Not to put too fine a point on it but most investors could double their “quantum” exposure and probably still not have enough shares.
Keith's Investing Tip: Buy the best, ignore the rest®. Sometimes the best tell is who wasn't in the room and who doesn’t need the money.
I hope you’ve got at least one quantum choice in your portfolio like the OBA Family does. The way I see things, quantum’s “ChatGPT” moment is closer at hand than ever before.
What happens next is gonna catch a lot of folks by surprise if history is any indication.
3 – ARMs are back but NOT because anybody loves 'em
ARM applications climbed to 8.5% of total mortgage activity last week, up from 8% the week before and the highest share since June. Compare that to the depths of the pandemic, when ultra-cheap fixed rates meant ARM demand was barely 3%. (Read)
The average 30-year fixed rate just hit 6.85% – the highest in over a year – while 5-year ARMs actually got cheaper, dropping to 5.82%.
Buyers are doing exactly what you'd expect: chasing the cheaper number today and telling themselves they'll deal with the reset later.
Here's the thing.
ARMs aren't free money. They're a bet – and a far riskier proposition than most people realize.
The real story almost always lurks beyond the headlines, something I call “Keith’s Rule of the Back Page” because that’s where the real investing premise can usually be found.
For example…
Refi applications dropped 6% last week and now sit a full 25% below where they were a year ago – the slowest pace since May of last year.
What people are missing is that nobody in their right mind refinances into a worse rate, so when refi activity dries up like it apparently has, that tells you dang near everything you need to know about where rates actually stand.
Home buyers, are barely blinking and they’re not running scared. They're just getting creative about how they pay for it.
Never mind the fact that people are hurting – which, btw, really doesn’t sit well with me for reasons we’ll talk about another time.
From an investing perspective, homebuilders who can subsidize their own financing are the ones capable of absorbing this type of rate environment instead of losing sales. The key is to see how each of ‘em is doing it – a permanent buydown funded off a fat balance sheet is a very different animal than a desperate price cut dressed up as a "promotion."
Trade Idea: Homebuilders who can offer their own buydowns have the edge over those that don't at moments like the present. Consider buying into names like D.R. Horton (DHI) – with its own captive mortgage arm, it can keep subsidizing rates all day long – but shorting or avoiding the likes of KB Home (KBH), which seems to be leaning on straight price cuts because that historically suggests that its margin cushion may be thinner than it looks.
4 – Apple’s big reveal?
Apple’s online store is down as I type with a note saying they’re making updates.
… for a foldable phone?
… for a new Apple Watch?
… for something AI related?
I’ll be watching.
Meanwhile, Apple stock tends to like big reveal days even if there’s typically a modest “sell the news” reaction.
According to BoA analyst Wamsi Mohan, Apple’s stock has gained in the 60 days following an iPhone reveal day 17 times, dating back to the 2007 smartphone launch, Mohan’s research found.
The biggest gain was 20%, recorded 60 days after the iPhone 11 reveal in 2019.
My research suggests the initial pop (if any) tends to fade faster than the follow-through move 30–60 days out, especially in years with price hikes or supply constraints already priced in, which is why I encourage a more measured approach with a higher probability of profit.
- LowBall Orders could work nicely
- Selling Cash Secured Puts IF there’s a post announcement pullback when volatility jumps could also generate some income AND a high probability entry at the same time.
If you have no idea how to execute these trades but would like to learn, you may find One Bar Ahead® helpful just like thousands of other investors who have expanded their skill set as part of the ongoing education on offer. Knowing “how” to buy is critically important because it can dramatically change your profit potential over time.
Meanwhile, the boffins are speculating on the impact of potential price hikes on margins – and – for once – I think they’re on to something.
The overarching concern remains sourcing enough memory chips to meet demand… not that demand is waning… so do keep that in mind as you listen along or scan the inevitable blizzard of headlines that’ll surface a few hours from now.
5 – Suze Podcast Webinar Update
In case you missed it or want to listen again, the fabulous Suze Orman kindly asked me back to her podcast, Women & Money for our first quarterly update on the webinar we originally did together this past June. (Listen)
As always, it was a super fun, people first conversation. 😀
Here’s a small sampling of what we covered:
- AI and data centers
- ETFs
- Letting go of losing positions
- Diversification / concentration
- Which is more important… the market or the economy
- And more!
Enjoy!
Bottom Line
There will be more profits created in the next 10 years than the last 50 combined.
Let that sink in.
Then do something about it like – oh, I dunno – investing accordingly.
You got this — I promise.
As always, let’s MAKE it a great day.
Keith 😀
