☕️ Apple’s next move will be epic

Howdy! 👋 

All three indices have opened green today on the news that U.S. President Trump says he expects the U.S. and Iran to make a “great deal” ahead of the ceasefire due to expire on Wednesday.  

I don’t know if I “buy” that, but the markets apparently do and that’s what matters in the scheme of things. 

Profits are always found at the edge of absurdity. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Apple’s next move will be epic 

Classic Apple. 

Late yesterday and with no warning whatsoever, Team Cook became Team Ternus. (Read) 

If you don't know Ternus yet, you will.  

I think it’s a smart move. 

Ternus, for all intents and purposes, is Apple’s “hardware guru” and he's been at Apple for 25 years.  

Chances are good you know his work… he’s behind the iPhone 17 lineup, AirPods, the MacBook Neo, and Apple's silicon transition — the move that made Macs faster and more efficient than anything the competition could touch.  

Wall Street's going to spend the next 48 hours debating whether this is bullish or bearish. 

I couldn’t care less because that’s a waste of mental energy. 

MyPOV is that this is a well-executed handoff at a $4 trillion company that Tim Cook grew from “just” $350 billion — a 1,000% increase — by doing one thing exceptionally well: running the best consumer ecosystem on the planet. 

Leadership transitions at great companies are almost always buying opportunities in disguise.  

• Microsoft handed the keys from Ballmer to Nadella in 2014 — Shares have returned ~1,000% since.  
• Disney replaced Eisner with Iger and went on to build one of the greatest content empires in history.  Shares returned ~579% on his watch (the first time). 
• Apple itself did it once before, when the legendary Steve Jobs handed off to Tim Cook. Shares have returned 1,380% since. 

I can’t wait to see what’s next! 💯 

You? 

2 – UnitedHealth beat the street. Pass. 

UnitedHealth Group reported this morning, and the numbers were good. (Read)  

• EPS came in at $7.23 vs. $6.57 expected — a clean beat 
• Revenue hit $111.72 billion vs. $109.57 billion expected 
• Medical benefit ratio: 83.9% vs. 85.5% expected — the better this number, the more profitable the insurer 
• Full-year earnings outlook raised to more than $18.25 per share, up from $17.75 
• Stock up roughly 7% on the open  

Here's where I must be straight with you. 

I warned you to steer clear of UNH on April 17, 2025 citing the CEO bailing for "personal reasons," the first earnings miss since 2008, the Medicare Advantage margin squeeze, and the federal billing fraud investigation… all of which played out exactly as advertised. (See #3).  

Hopefully you heeded my warning. 

Shares have dropped more than 25% since. 

Time to buy? 

Not me. 

The DOJ has intensified its antitrust investigation into Optum's integrated model. That probe doesn't disappear because one quarter came in hot. If it escalates, it could force a costly restructuring of the very business model Wall Street suddenly seems to want to celebrate. 

MyPOV: One solid quarter doesn't rebuild trust any more than it makes a federal investigation disappear. Further, I say fix the health care system rather than rewarding insurance companies with higher payments. 

Trade idea: Putskies, short or simply avoid. There are better, considerably tastier fish to fry as the old expression goes. 

3 – Amazon is writing the checks, but Nvidia is making the chips everybody wants 

Anthropic just committed to spending $100 billion on Amazon's AWS over the next decade — custom Trainium chips, tens of millions of Graviton cores, and 5 gigawatts of capacity to power their AI models. (Read) 

Keith's Investing Tip: When one of the smartest labs in the room writes a $100 billion check to one company, don't overthink it. 

Just sayin’ 👏 

4 – Could Jamie Dimon’s latest move finally make Europe investable? 

JPMorgan's CEO Jamie Dimon is pushing hard for deeper US-Europe collaboration on security, defense spending, and AI infrastructure, making the case that working jointly is the only way the West stays competitive against China and manages the cost of rearming a continent that spent 30 years freeloading on American defense dollars. (Read) 

I agree. 

Whether Brussels actually “buys it” remains to be seen — the EU’s track record of turning good ideas into actual policy makes the DMV look like a well-oiled machine. 🤦‍ 

My $0.02 is that they’d be smart to listen… or start learning Chinese. 

European defense names — particularly those plugged into US supply chains — are worth a second look if you haven't already. The AI infrastructure angle is also real.  

Just don't buy the index if you can help it. 

Instead, buy the best operators with actual contracts and pricing power… the rest is just posturing chest thumping, policy dominoes and flag-waving. 

Keith's Investing Tip: When the smartest money in the room starts pointing at a door, it usually pays to at least look through it. 

And if you have no idea where to start, you may enjoy One Bar Ahead® for the same reasons that thousands of other smart investors do. People tell me regularly that it’s changed their lives and their view of the markets… for the better. 

5 – This is Europe’s “Nokia moment” 

Beijing is taking aim at Europe’s top luxury car brands. 

Here we go again. 

We’ve seen this playbook before and I’m willing to bet that it doesn’t end well for das car makers. 

In the 1970s, Toyota showed up to the American market with small, reliable, affordable cars while Detroit laughed. If you recall, GM, Ford, and Chrysler were busy building land yachts and printing money.  “Why worry about a Japanese upstart?” was the thinking at the time. 

Chinese automakers have studied that playbook — carefully, methodically, and now have a lot more money behind them. Except this time, they're not starting at the bottom like Japan did. (Read) 

China’s going straight for the top — luxury sedans, premium SUVs, advanced driver tech that rivals anything BMW or Mercedes has put on a stage in Munich. The “badge” is the last moat Europe's finest thought they had, and China just turned it into a trophy. 

European automakers are completely unprepared for the simple reason that BMW, Mercedes, and Audi have spent decades selling heritage.  

China is selling the future.  

When Japan pulled this move on America it took 20 years to fully play out but what many investors fail to grasp is that China is moving considerably faster than that. Anybody who has visited China knows better because they’ve seen what I am describing firsthand. 

Europe takes 5–7 years to field new models while China can go from drawing board to production in under two years, at 30–40% lower cost. 

Keith's Investing Tip: History doesn't repeat — but it rhymes loudly enough that investors who pay attention can hear it coming. Western critics often say that China is failing but can’t recognize that they’ve said the same thing for 50 years… and it’s still here. 

Trade Idea: Long Chinese car makers with global ambitions and superior quality and short or avoid the entire lot of European, but particularly German, badges. 

My fave, btw, has returned ~66.49% since I introduced it to the OBA Family versus the S&P 500 which has turned in ~37% over the same time frame.  

Nearly twice the performance. 

Buy the best, ignore the rest!® has never looked so good. 

Hopefully you’ve got this covered in your own portfolio and, if not, you know where to find me. 

Bottom Line 

Don’t chase yesterday’s trends; instead, position for tomorrow’s inevitabilities. 

Your portfolio will recognize the difference. 

As always, MAKE it a great day. 

You got this – I promise! 

Keith 😀