☕ Are you ready for what’s next?

Howdy! 👋 

Will we have another green day on our hands? 

Looks that way as I type but, honestly, it’s too early to tell. 

The Greenland situation has forced traders around the world to reset risk twice this week and that, in turn, has introduced volatility (which reflects uncertainty, not risk like everybody thinks – the two terms are not interchangeable). 

Don’t get distracted. 

When bulls and bears fight, it’s the chickens who get slaughtered. 

The business case for owning great stocks like those we talk about regularly continues to get stronger and every investor would be wise to pay attention. Or, risk getting left on the sidelines if they don’t. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Intel: buy the hype, meet the woodchipper 

My exact words yesterday (See #1) 

“I believe – given recent trading patterns with other highly anticipated stocks and decades of experience in the game – that there’s a good case the go-fast crowd has driven prices up knowing that many retail investors still think it’s a spiffy idea to buy on good results.   

If so, the Merry Marauders will try to sweep in the last momentum buyers then, once that happens, take prices lower in the after-hours to flush out the weak money and “run the stops” - meaning take prices low enough to trigger trailing stops put in place by folks who are holding on too tight.” 

And drum roll please… 

That’s happened. 

Intel is trading at $45.72 as I type, down ~16.3% from yesterday’s $54.60 pre-earnings peak. 

What now? 

Again and to a point I made yesterday, “I don’t think Intel has the earnings power to support the recent run up. Gross margins are under pressure and incremental server demand is going to AMD.” 

There may be a short-term bounce just because the computers are out of bounds right now as I type but longer term, I’ll a) pass and b) stick with the stronger players who don’t have Intel’s decidedly troubled baggage. 

If you’re an OBAer, you know all about this based on Monday's update. 

Pay particular attention to the new lineup because it’s a subtle focus change that will capture at least 80% of the AI market if I’m right. And if I’m wrong, probably about 65%... not bad, eh? 🤷🏻‍️ 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Price always tells the truth before the headlines. 

2 – The Buffett comparison I never saw coming 

The super-savvy Liz Claman kindly invited me back yesterday as her “Countdown Closer.” 

We talked about quite a few things, of course… what I bought during the worst of this week’s downdraft, how I think about the markets and more. 

Then she paid me one of the highest compliments I could have ever imagined because of how I approach the markets… buy the best, ignore the rest. ® 

“You sound like Warren Buffett” (Watch) 

Talk about humbling – I never saw it coming! 💯 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people aspire to be like Buffett and diversify away because that’s what they’ve been taught for decades. Yet, in the same breath, what they often fail to grasp is just how concentrated his investments were over the years. “Moats” are no longer enough. I learned a long time ago that focus is critical… hence my investing mantra, Buy the best, ignore the rest.® 

3 – Betting against Musk now is a widow maker trade 

Morgan Stanley is out with a new note saying… 

“Tesla’s removal of the safety driver in its Austin fleet markets a pivotal moment in proving out its vision-only approach to autonomy.” 

I’ve been a broken record on this for years, so it’s great to have company as the old expression goes. 

What I want to call your attention to is what they said next. 

“The scaling of a vision a passive optical-only AV system would seriously challenge the conventional thinking of many in the robotaxi community.” 

I think it also seriously calls Waymo into question as a viable going concern. What’s more, it also raises the specter of every other major auto-maker potentially licensing Tesla’s informatics, data etc. 

Call me crazy, but there may be hope yet for Ford. 🤦‍️ 

I believe Tesla is setting up for another unbelievable run and that it will print an entirely new generation of millionaires in the process. 

Betting against Musk has always been a widow maker trade.  

Tesla has returned ~28,189% since going public, enough to turn every $1,000 invested back then into ~$282,770 today if my back of the envelope calculations are correct and I’ve had enough ☕️. 

Tons of people are going to do it anyway – bet against Musk now – but to me that seems a lot like betting against Steve Jobs back in the day. 

Something else. 

History suggests there are 10-15 “Tesla” out there right now; your job as an investor is to find ‘em early, then get your money there and latch on. If you’re covered, excellent. If you’d like some help upping your game like the OBA Family, I’m here. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Many people make a stink about “liking” CEOs… or in Musk’s case, not liking him. Your money doesn’t care. What you really want to make peace with is whether or not you can afford to miss that kind of opportunity. I don’t know of too many investors who can.  

4 – Greenland and the law of unintended consequences 

US President Donald Trump has made no bones about wanting access to Greenland’s minerals, rare earths and more. (Read) 

Beijing’s watching. 

The West didn’t notice in 2018 when China declared itself a “near-Arctic state” and a regional shareholder as part of a Polar Silk Road push. Nor did it blink when China’s Shenghe took an investment in the Kvanefjeld mining project via a backdoor investment in Australia's energy Transition Metals. 

I’m not sure exactly how China will react but have no doubt it will. 

Beijing has the know-how, the cash and the MOU at a time when Greenland’s leaders have specifically warned that they’ll look “East” if they must. 

Critical Metals might be the standout here but a choice like the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Metals ETF could be high ground if supply chains get rattled. 

Hmmm. 🤔 

5 – Read these two headlines together, not apart 

Two headlines crossed the wires overnight that are worth reading together, not separately.  

First, Bloomberg reports that Chinese regulators have quietly told Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance and others they can start prepping orders for Nvidia’s H200 AI chips. Not an official green light. Just a polite “go ahead and get ready.” 

Then CNBC reports Jensen Huang is heading back to China. Again. 

Funny how that works. 

Publicly, it’s still all about export controls, national security, and strategic competition.  

Lots of tough talk and finger-wagging. 

Privately?  

China needs AI computing power and Nvidia makes the best chips in the world. 

Seems somebody else understands “buy the best ignore the rest® too. 😀 

Keith’s Investing Tip: People with the biggest mouths often have the smallest investments. Jensen speaks deliberately, which is why I’ll bet on him (and other CEOs like him) every time. 

Hopefully you’ve got this covered with your own investing strategy. If not and you’d like some help, I’ll be here. 

Bottom Line 

Strong body + strong mind = strong results. 

Get some exercise. 

Your portfolio will thank you! 😃 

Now, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong.  

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀