☕ Big Tech: Don’t believe everything you read

Howdy! 👋 

Millions of investors are watching this morning in surprise as chip stocks take a header and all three indices look to begin the “second 1/2” in the red. 

Don’t be. 

Volatility is a travelling companion and an opportunity, not something to fear. 

The real question is what you make of it. 

There are very definitely some new rules [related to volatility] in play which means that smart investors would be wise to pay attention. We’ll be talking about that in the July Issue of One Bar Ahead® which publishes on Thursday – so please keep an eye on your email if you’re an OBAer. 

Meanwhile, stay focused. 

The world is reorganizing itself in ways that don’t respect Wall Street’s old habits nor its categories. So invest according to where the world is going, not where it’s been. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – Where I would deploy cash right now 

I sat down with Luke Lloyd yesterday who was sitting in for my friend and long-time colleague Scott “the Cow Guy” Shellady on RFD TV.  

Luke wanted to know how I see the markets currently… and more importantly, where I see opportunity and risk at the moment. We also talked gold and what – imho – many folks buying it continue to miss. (Watch) 

Please accept my apologies in advance… I had to shift to a phoner at the last minute because Zoom audio choked on the latest Apple update. As much as I love tech, there are very definitely days when I have strong feelings otherwise. Yeesh! 🤦‍ 

2 – Big Tech: Don’t believe everything you read 

I’m reading this morning that tech was the best-performing sector globally in H1 2026 — but U.S. tech was the worst performer among tech regions. (Read) 

That’s true… over the last 6 months: 

• Emerging markets tech (large/mid-cap): +90%+ — by far the biggest winner. 
• European tech (Stoxx 600 Tech index): +23.4% to +44.8% depending on which index you look at.
• U.S. tech (S&P 500 Info Tech / Nasdaq 100): +19.4% to +19.9% — solid, but the laggard of the three. 

Zoom out and a very different picture emerges. 

• Nvidia alone is worth more than Europe's ten biggest companies combined. One company. $5.4 trillion. Bigger than ASML, Roche, Novartis, Nestlé, LVMH, and everyone else in Europe's top ten — combined. The company – alone – rules roughly 81% of the world’s AI data center chip market which means that approximately $8 of every $10 flows through it. 
• The Magnificent Seven's combined market cap just hit $22 trillion as of late June — bigger than the entire European Union's annual economic output. Not market cap vs. market cap. Market cap vs. an entire continent's GDP. 
• Over the past decade, the S&P 500 has averaged 13.8% annualized returns — global stocks outside the U.S. have averaged 4.9%. Nearly triple and a ten-year gap that’s bigger than the Grand Canyon, so to speak. 

To be clear, I love Europe and am rooting for European Tech.  

Always have. 

In fact, I am speaking to a group of Italian execs next week on this very subject. But unfortunately and despite how I feel or you may feel, that doesn’t change the data nor does it alter the investing premise at hand. 

The daunting reality is that the Mag7 and US tech account for something on the order of 92-95% of the entire planet’s data center buildout this year. 

What you really want to be asking yourself as think about this is the same thing I’m asking myself. 

             … when that infrastructure starts throwing off cash, just whose income statements do you think that shows up on and which stock prices will reflect that earnings power? 

 Mica tech europea!  

I’ll be here if you’d like some perspective and a “buy list” to go with it. 

3 – Gold, ummm yeah  

People have fought with me for a long time when it comes to gold. 

It was going to the moon they said in January when it crested ~$5,595 an oz. I told you repeatedly that odds were good it falls 20-50% over the next few years. 

Gold just closed its worst quarter in 13 years, dropping about 16% in Q2, and is down 7.76% year-to-date. (Read) 

Why? 

The answer surprises a lot of people. 

Most individual investors think they’re buying gold itself but what they fail to recognize is that there may be $20+ dollars in phantom currency layered on top of every $1 real dollar invested in the shiny stuff… futures, options, structured products and so on. 

The decline is simply institutions shifting gears. 

And no, macros have nothing to do with it despite what legions of furus and self-styled gold experts will have you believe. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: If you’re going to own gold – and there’s nothing wrong with that if you want to – be sure you do it for the right reasons because the probability you’ll get caught offsides is higher than ever. 

4 – Never mind: DC “un-bans” Anthropic’s Fable 5 and Mythos 5 

Anthropic says the US Department of Commerce has lifted export controls on both its Claude Fable 5 and Mythos 5 Models. (Read) 

Ostensibly the story is about realizing the error of its’ ways but that’s only partly true. 

What’s really happened is that tech experts forcefully pointed out exactly what I did and – to its credit – the US government finally got the message. 

Shutting off Fable 5 and Mythos opened the door to Chinese models that are a) significantly cheaper than US versions and b) nearly every bit as capable as the most powerful US versions. 

So now what? 

It’s unclear because nobody knows who is really calling the shots inside the Beltway following David Sacks’ departure earlier this year. 

From an investing standpoint, though, nothing’s changed. 

You can get on board or get left behind. 

Simple as that. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Sometimes the biggest profit potential is hidden in plain sight. 

5 – What’s Zuck up to now? 🤷🏻‍ 

I love to hate Meta and I maintain that the company is struggling to remain relevant. 

Loads of people disagree with me, and I respect that as much as I get that. 

MyPOV is this. 

Reality Labs has burned through $83.5 billion since 2021. Averaging roughly $4 billion in losses every single quarter — for twenty-one straight quarters. $402 million in revenue against a $4 billion operating loss last quarter alone.  

Meta has also been widely tagged as the AI laggard of the bunch — playing catch-up to OpenAI, Anthropic and Google even as it commits $125–145 billion in 2026 capex trying to close the gap. 

Brussels isn’t done with El Zucko either. 

The EU has an active antitrust investigation into whether Meta is using WhatsApp's API to lock out rival AI providers — on top of ongoing scrutiny over the "pay or consent" ad model. Meta's response was to restrict its most powerful Llama model from the EU market entirely rather than comply. That's not confidence. That's retreat. 

And the irony — you're going to love this. 

Remember when Facebook changed its name to Meta in October 2021?  

I do. 

Zuck stood in front of a virtual backdrop and told the world the metaverse would be "the next chapter for the internet." Billions in commerce he said. A billion users within a decade he crowed. He bet the entire company's name on it. 

Fast forward to June 15, 2026.  

Meta just shut down Horizon Worlds — the flagship app that was supposed to be the metaverse — pulling it off Quest headsets entirely. The total damage is probably $100 billion since the rebrand. 

So now — logically — the company wants to build a cloud infrastructure business to sell excess AI computing capacity and AI models to outside customers. (Read) 

Investors are celebrating because this is supposedly brilliant stuff. 

I’m not sure. 

The initiative would put Meta in competition with Amazon Web Services, Microsoft Azure, and Google Cloud AND “excess” means that there’s a high probability Zuck and his team have spent too much to recover the costs. So, they’re hoping to mitigate losses they are very likely already preparing for. 

I want to short the company and have for a long time. But honestly, that’s a challenge because millions of investors continue to drink the Kool-Aid and Wall Street has a vested interest in defending the stock. 

I’d probably get clobbered so I’ll keep exposure to a minimum. 

And focus on other names with what I consider to be much bigger profit potential and no baggage. 

Bottom Line 

Investing is not a game of rushed decisions at moments in time, but it is very much a game about consistency and discipline over time. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day. 💯 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀