☕️ CrowdStrike, Palantir and what’s next for both

Howdy! 👋 

I’ve been warning all week about the possibility of a pullback and it would appear that we’ve got at least a little taste of that this morning as chip makers lead the herd lower. 

I say good. 

The markets are the only place on earth where customers fear a sale. 

Here’s my playbook.  

1 – CRWD: a double beat, shares fall anyway 👏 

CrowdStrike reported earnings and beat both top and bottom lines. (Read) 

• Revenue: $1.39B, up 26% YoY  
• 51% of customers now use 6+ modules  
• Record operating and free cash flow 

Shares fell this morning anyway. 

We’ve seen this playbook so many times but in case you’re just joining us… 

Here’s the skinny. 

Go-fast traders know that retail investors still think great earnings mean it’s time to buy so they use that incoming volume to make a quick exit. Then, they “run the trailing stops” many momentum investors and traders use because they think those things will protect ‘em. 

It’s a double whammy for the unsuspecting but a potential home run for those who know how the game is really played. And, now YOU do. 

Let the go-fast crew “run the stops” and shake the weak money out. 

Then make your move. 

Longer term, the company is in a super position, which means that smart investors have the upper hand imho. They almost always do but that’s a story for another time.  

I’m focused on these two takeaways this morning: 

• CrowdStrike achieved record Q1 new net ARR (Annual Recurring Revenue) of $256 million, a 32% YoY increase. 
• CrowdStrike also announced a four-for-one stock split.  

Cybersecurity is about as must have as it gets. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Think like a shark, not a minnow especially when it comes to a company like CrowdStrike. 

Btw, I hope you’ve got this covered. If not, and you’d like some perspective that might help, you know where to find me. 

2 – Palantir: The story keeps getting bigger 

Palantir are set to hold their 10th AIP Conference today.  

If you aren’t familiar with AIP, let me give you the skinny. 

AIPCon is an annual event where Palantir's customers take center stage to show their work.  

Not Palantir.  

Palantir’s customers.  

This year includes names like USDA, Hertz, Kirkland & Ellis, Accenture and they’re all there to brag about results they’re getting from Palantir’s product suite. 

Think about that.  

When your clients are lining up to take the stage and shout about what your platform did for their business, you don't have a product. You have a community that “product” companies and traditional software providers would give their right arm and probably a few other body parts to have. 

This year's theme is tradecraft — the idea that Palantir doesn't just hand you AI tools, it takes your existing expertise and amplifies it.  

McCarthy Building is showing up to encode 160 years of construction knowledge into their platform. The USDA is streamlining farmer services. Accenture is securing software supply chains. 

Ten conferences in and the story keeps getting bigger. 

Karpus Maximus! 

You can watch it on X or YouTube, btw. 

3 – Bitcoin: now we're going to find out who's been swimming naked 

Legendary investor Warren Buffett has a saying whenever there’s a selloff that bleeds out speculative energy – and I’m paraphrasing – now, we’re gonna find out who’s been swimming naked. 

Bitcoin has hit its lowest price since February — trading around $63,649 as of this morning after briefly cracking below $62,000 intraday, down more than 13% on the week and roughly 50% off its October 2025 all-time high if my data is correct.  

The official reason being batted around the internet is that investors are pulling liquidity for IPOs and equities.  

Uh, no. 

Institutional investors are re-risking because — like gold — there are layers of products stacked on top of bitcoin itself: futures, options, options on futures, hedging and more. 

Derivatives now make up roughly 73% of total crypto market volume.  

There may be as much as $20 in phantom money for every $1 that’s really invested in bitcoin. 

Anybody who thinks they're still buying bitcoin at this point is kidding themselves. 

I know it's popular — but do it the right way. 

My choice has returned roughly 30% since inception roughly 12 months ago while bitcoin itself has returned roughly -40%. 

Keith's Investing Tip: People in search of a quick buck may get lucky now and then, but so do blind squirrels when they find a nut. There's a big advantage in knowing how the game is actually played — especially when it comes to something like bitcoin. 

4 – Private Equity: here we go again 

Blackstone has hit the brakes on its $79 billion private credit fund – officially called BCRED - after investors tried to pull out roughly $4.5 billion in a single quarter. (Read) 

That's a 10% redemption rate but Blackstone capped withdrawals at 5%.  

Translation?  

If you wanted your money, you're getting half of what you asked for.  

Maybe. 

Private credit has been aggressively marketed to everyday investors recently as the "smart money" alternative to stocks. Higher yields, lower volatility, institutional-grade access.  

Right, and I have a bridge to sell you. 

What got buried in the fine print is that you surrender control of your own money. 

That doesn’t get talked ‘bout nearly enough, imho.  

In plain English, this means that you can't sell when you want, you can't rebalance when you need to and so on.  

You just have to wait — and hope the fund manager's interests align with yours. 

Newsflash… that’s not always the case. 

I am particularly concerned at the moment about legions of investors who have invested in special purposes vehicles and similar exotics ahead of SpaceX because there is a very high risk – imho – that they’re gonna learn a similar lesson quickly (and unfortunately). 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Millions of investors think private equity is a sure thing but the only thing that’s “sure” about it is that they’ll get paid first. I think a good many are going to rue the day. 

5 – The Pandemic Cup 

The biggest World Cup in history kicks off next week. 104 games. 48 teams. Millions of fans from every corner of the planet packed into stadiums, hotels, bars, and airports together. 

Public health officials are already suiting up for a different kind of match. 

I’ve been watching the Ebola outbreak in Congo and Uganda very closely as have health experts. They say the risk that it spreads is very low because it’s not easy to transmit. 

Seems to me that we’ve heard that before. 

I think it’s smart to own a smattering of the best pharma, quite a few of which are forming a nice base and could have one whale of an uptake if the classics come to watch the match. 

You know. 

Measles, covid, typhoid, the flu… sigh. 

I’ll admit that thinking about this stuff is never fun and it can be scary… but it’s my job as an investment strategist to do just that. But you’re not here for the dental plan and neither am I. 

Keith’s Investment Tip: Chaos creates opportunity and history clearly shows that the more of the former there is, the more of the latter you have. 

Bottom Line 

Profits are always found at the edge of absurdity. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day! 

You got this — I promise! 

Keith 😀