☕️ FITZ: I’ve been looking forward to this day for 2 years

Howdy! 👋 

Core PCE came in at 3.3% this morning — right in line with what the Street was expecting… headline inflation at 3.8%... GDP for Q1 revised down to 1.6%. 

All three averages are in the green as I type, but – to be fair – I’m still leery of a holiday-shortened downside spurt. 

FOCUS!!! 

Volatility cuts both ways so it’s important that you have a game plan and stick to it. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – I’ve been looking forward to this day for 2 years 

Time is a funny thing. 

Not many people remember January 9, 2007, but I do. 

Vividly. 

That was the day that the late Steve Jobs walked onto a stage in San Francisco and said simply, “this is a day I’ve been looking forward to for two and a half years.” Then for the next few minutes, Jobs took a stroll down memory lane at Apple, talked about phones, and the current limitations of technology in place at the time.  

He dropped hint after hint about a “revolutionary” product and moments later quite literally dropped the game-changing new iPhone out of his jean pocket. 

I can totally identify. 

Most investors are using a roadmap designed 30, 40 even 50 years ago to navigate a world that looks nothing like it did then. And, as a result, many are missing opportunity because they’re spreading their money around thousands of stocks hoping to stumble into a few big winners that actually move the needle. 

My new ETF, the Fitz-Gerald Must Have Portfolio® (NYSE Arca: FITZ) exists because I believe investors deserve better.  

The premise is very simple. 

What if you could own 20-30 of the world’s best, most successful companies making “must have” products and services the world can’t live without AND align your money with huge structural changes based on the world’s going rather than where it’s been – all in a single, easy to buy, easy to understand exchange traded fund? 

👇 

Investors should consider the investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses carefully before investing. For a prospectus or summary prospectus with this and other information about the Fund, visit https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/1924868/000199937126011422/fitz_497k-052626.htm Read the prospectus or summary prospectus carefully before investing. Investing involves risk. Principal loss is possible. Distributed by Foreside Fund Services, LLC. 

2 – Dividend investors beware of $1,000+ car payments 

Oh boy. 

Like you and I didn’t see this coming from a mile away! 

Experian Automotive analyzed more than 5 million open auto loans and leases during Q1 and found that nearly 19% of new vehicle loans include a monthly payment of at least $1,000. (Read) 

Most people assume that this is high-pinky stuff – you know, luxury vehicles. 

Not true. 

CNBC is reporting that 74% of the loans in the $1,000+ monthly payment club are non-luxury models. The top five are all pickup trucks including the Ford F-150, Chevrolet Silverado 1500 and Ram 1500. 

Just 5 short years ago, $1,000+ payments accounted for a mere 5.4% of the market. 

Here’s the challenge. 

Traditional car makers bank around 5% of their revenue from loans and leases but 15–20% of the profits — and that number has run as high as 50% when vehicle sales get soft. 

Which means rising delinquencies associated with these expensive piston clankers aren't just a consumer credit story. They hit Ford Credit and GM Financial directly, and those units are quietly what fund the dividend, the buybacks, as well as the EV and AI ambitions. 

Ford nearly learned this the hard way in 2008. The loans are bigger now, the terms longer, and a $70,000 truck depreciates a lot faster than the folks who financed ‘em seem to realize. 

Trade Idea: Putskies on the conventional automakers. Or simply short, avoid, and find better choices. Not to mention cars that people actually want to buy and profits that come from a much broader construct.  

You know what to do. 

Keith's Investing Tip: If you understand one thing about any stock you own, understand this… does it make a “must have” product and is the business unit that makes it the company’s most important/profitable/innovative? 

3 - Snowflake, time to buy? 

Snowflake jumped 36% last night and is trading at around $235.65 as I type.  

Not too shabby! 

• Revenue came in at $1.39 billion — up 33% year over year — beating Wall Street's estimate by 5%.  
• Adjusted earnings of $0.39 per share crushed the $0.32 consensus by nearly 22%. 
• Product revenue hit $1.33 billion, up 34% — the strongest sequential dollar growth in company history.  
• Guidance raised. 
• Margins improved.  

By any measure, a clean beat. (Read) 

The real story imho is the AWS deal. 

Snowflake committed to spending $6 billion on Amazon Web Services over the next five years — including Amazon's custom Graviton chips and cloud-based GPUs built specifically for AI workloads. To put that in perspective: when Snowflake went public in 2020, the equivalent commitment was $1.2 billion. By 2023 it had grown to $2.5 billion. Now it's $6 billion. 

Now for the fine print because – you know 🤷️ – there always is some. 

GAAP operating loss was still -$326 million this quarter. What catches my attention is that shareholders' equity is down nearly 20% year over year. Stock-based compensation continues to dilute existing shareholders.  

Insiders sold heavily at $175–$176 in the days before this print which catches my attention. If these were planned sales it’s not a big deal but I have not had time to check that. If they were unplanned, that’s a warning flag. 

Btw, tip o'the ‘ol hat to all Snowflake shareholders – well done! 

Stay frosty. 

Trade Idea: I’d love to short SNOW or buy puts – a bet the stock declines – but the markets may not give me that opportunity. 

4 – Gold had one job this year and it blew it 

People have argued with me for years. 

Gold is "the bomb" they said and the list of reasons they gave for why that's the case is as long as my arm… war broke out, oil spike, the Strait of Hormuz shut down, inflation's back, the US Dollar is complicated. 

My response. 

Don't bet on it. 

In fact, I told you it was far more likely to go the other way… repeatedly. 

I still think that's the case. 

Sure, gold's had a run — up some 50% year-over-year if you're keeping score - but the peak was the tell imho. So far, it's down $920 and about 16% from a top of $5,595 which means loads of folks who thought they were being smart are already getting left high and dry. 

My $0.02 is tread very, very carefully if you own gold. 

The “trade” may not play out like you think if you’re one of millions betting on gold going to the moon so to speak. 

ETF outflows in March were steep — WGC data shows a big reversal from Q1 2025 — and higher-for-longer rates are killing the non-yielding bid.  

History suggests a fall of 20%-40% wouldn't be outta line. 

Keith's Investing Tip: Gold has nothing to do whatsoever with the macro story anymore. It's all about whether the institutions are buying or selling. 

5 – Did Mamdani just seal NYC’s fate – ask Seattle 

New York just passed a “pied-a-terre” tax on non-primary residences to help close the city’s budget gap.  

He and his colleagues might wanna take a look at what’s happening in Seattle where property values are already dropping as new taxes create sticker shock for scores of people. (Read) 

History shows very clearly that it doesn’t tend to end well when politicians decide “the rich” have too much money and the government needs more of it. 

In case you’re not familiar with what’s happening… 

Washington Governor Bob Ferguson signed SB 6346 into law in March — a 9.9% income tax on households earning over $1 million annually. The tax doesn't even kick in until January 1, 2028, with first payments due in 2029. Yet, the damage is already happening.  

Active listings in Washington state surged 29.3% year over year in March 2026 while closed sales barely moved — rising just 0.2% from a year ago.  

The median sales price fell 1.5% year over year.  

More homes are sitting long as buyers that once fell all over each other trying to get into Seattle’s vibrant markets are vanishing faster than an ice cube on hot pavement. 

Data from the Northwest Multiple Listing Service shows that compared to the same period last year, new listings for homes over $5 million are up 40%, pending listings up 78%, and sales up 66.7%.  

That last number sounds like good news until you understand what it actually means. 

The wealthy are racing for the exits before the door closes.  

The number of homes priced at $2 million or more jumped 65% the day after Democrats passed the bill compared to the same period last year.  

One day. Sixty-five head-spinning percent. 

Active listings are now running 64% above the long-term March average, with analysts pointing directly to what one described as "an exodus of sorts" playing out across Seattle and Spokane as the primary driver behind the inventory flood.  

So what say many – and I get it. 

The really scary stuff hasn’t even happened yet. 

Company owners are taking their companies with ‘em… employees, families, fixtures, equipment… the whole enchilada. 

And remember — the tax hasn't even taken effect yet. 

Bottom Line 

The world is reorganizing itself around themes and in ways that don’t respect Wall Street’s old categories. 

It makes sense to reorganize your thinking and, I submit, your investing, too. 

Now and as always, let's MAKE it a great day – you got this! 

Keith 😀