☕ How low can it go, here are two things to think about

Howdy! 👋 

Happy FriYAY! 

Not that you’d know it looking at the markets this morning on the heels of Intel??!! 🤦‍ 

All three indices are firmly in the red as I type. 

Tempted to bail? 

I get it if you are, just know this. 

History shows very clearly that it never feels like a great time to invest, but that it almost always is. 

Click to enlarge.

Missing opportunity is always more expensive than trying to avoid risks you can’t control. 

Here’s my playbook. 

1 – How low can markets go, here are two things to think about 

The real answer is nobody knows. 

What happens next depends on two things… a) how much leverage is still in the system and b) how quickly gamma flips. 

The smart money is buying as are the dealers. 

Why? 

Take a hard look at the chart above, then take a deep breath. 

Selling now could be one of the most expensive mistakes any investor makes. 

If you’ve got to because you need the money to live on, that’s one thing, but heading for the hills because of FUD – fear, uncertainty and doubt – is another. 

Here’s the expected 4-year growth for a handful of companies I picked at random. 

• SpaceX: +7,923%* 
• Marvell: +508% 
• Tesla: +503% 
• AMD: +501% 
• Arm: +335% 
• Palantir: +334% 
• Broadcom: +306% 
• Celestica: +285% 
• Oracle: +193% 
• Nvidia: +168% 
• Micron: +157% 
• Vertiv: +112% 
• Arista: +112% 
• TSMC: +110% 
• Microsoft: +101% 
• ASML: +91% 
• Dell: +83% 
• Meta: +75% 
• Amazon: +36% 
• Alphabet: +30% 
• JPMorgan: +23% 

*Off a near-zero base. Incl. current FY. Source: avg. analyst estimates (Bloomberg; TSLA, MU, JPM via public consensus) 

My point? 

Selling now means you’re walking away from that profit potential. 

Paytience! 

2 – Cracks in big tech are like the 1849 Gold Rush 

I've long said that not all tech is the same, specifically big tech. 

Take Intel. 

Shares are currently down ~25% as I type due to disappointing Q4 guidance and poor execution. 

What’s happening reminds me of the 1849 Gold Rush for reasons that I discussed with the fabulous Sri Jegarajah and Manisha Tank on CNBC Asia who kindly asked me back for a broad-ranging interview from Singapore. (Watch) 

Make no mistake about it. 

The next generation of millionaires is being printed right now. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: All the earnings in the world don’t mean diddly if you lack the courage to wade in when others run for the exits.  

3 – Amazon is your problem whether you own it or not 

Like Intel, Amazon shares are also taking a beating this morning – down 7% as I type. 

The bright spot is that Amazon’s cloud business, AWS, grew nearly 40%. (Read) 

Should you buy Amazon? 

I’m not because I think there are other choices with far better and more focused management, but that’s just me. Knock yourself out if you think it’s a great choice. 

Here’s the rub. 

What’s happening with Amazon and Intel has the potential to bite every investor in the asteroids. Arguably, it already is. 

Amazon is one of the heaviest weights in the S&P 500 and in nearly every index fund out there, which means its AI spending binge is your problem whether you own the stock directly or not.  

If you own it, now is the time to be sure your position is sized so a hard landing doesn’t derail your investing plans. 

And if you want in, know that there’s no rush.  

Consider using LowBall Orders set well below today’s price and let the market come to you instead of the other way around. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Growth is only worth what it costs ya to get it, and only as good as the management delivering it. 

4 – Triple digit growth from what stock??!! 

There are very few numbers that can stop me cold. 

Chevron just did. 

Not only did it top expectations, but the company turned in adjusted earnings of $10.4 billion.  

Up 185% from a year ago. 

From what is regarded by many as a staid, old-school investing choice. 

I love it! 

ExxonMobil, too. 

That company turned in $17.5 billion in adjusted earnings, up 117% from a year ago. (Read) 

I know I sound like a broken record when I say, “Buy the best, ignore the rest!®” but this is something that a lot of investors have yet to recognize. 

And that creates an impressive opportunity for those who do because you can get ahead of the herd. 

Case in point, William Blair just initiated coverage on Chevron with an Outperform rating. (Read) 

I can only imagine quite a few investors having a facepalm, thanks for nothing moment if they rely on the firm’s research for having missed or not included a stock that’s run roughly 50% over the past year and which pays a healthy 3.1% yield backed by 39 straight years of dividend increases. 

So yeah, and once again. 

You can fight for Wall Street’s table scraps or you can make a change. 

The choice is always yours. 

I submit that Buy the best, ignore the rest® matters more than ever. 

And if you want a shot at being One Bar Ahead®, you can learn more any time you want. Meanwhile, I’ll be right here. 

5 – One laptop. $6 billion 

I was just talking about this on CNBC last night, too. 

Cybersecurity is one of the biggest single investing opportunities on the planet and one that most investors pay lip service to. 

My guess is that’s probably changed this morning. 

Binance, the world’s biggest crypto exchange, disclosed late Thursday that hackers drained roughly $6.3 billion from its wallets. Most of it went in about 20 minutes. (Read) 

That’s roughly 4X the previous record: the $1.5 billion Bybit hack in February 2025. 

How? 

Binance’s early investigation traces it to a single engineer’s compromised laptop. 🤦‍♂️ 

Crypto investigators link it to a North Korean hacking group, though no government has formally confirmed that. Binance says it will cover every customer loss.  

If you’re a crypto investor, here’s the wrinkle. 

Crypto is sold as “decentralized,” meaning nobody’s in charge. When state-backed hackers can take $6 billion in 20 minutes, security budgets will likely only go one way.  

Picks and shovels, my friends. 

Keith’s Investing Tip: Your portfolio is only as safe as your login. Immediately enable two-factor authentication. Keep your devices updated. Never click a link you weren’t expecting, no matter how official it looks. And while you’re at it, consider something like Optery to help you minimize your digital footprint.  

Bottom Line 

Chaos creates opportunity and the more of the former there is, the more of the latter you have. 

You got this — I promise. 💯 

As always, let’s MAKE it a great day and finish the week strong!  

Keith 😀